Wednesday 12 December 2012

Nonito Donaire v Jorge Arce

A week after Filipino superstar Manny Pacquiao got starched by Mexican multi-weight champion Juan Manuel Marquez, we get another high profile Filipino v Mexican fight as Nonito Donaire (?-?) defends his WBO Bantamweight title against multi-weight world champion Jorge Arce (?-?). Whilst many are viewing this as forgone conclusion it's fair to say that it'll be fun to watch as neither man is often in a poor bout with one of them being known as a KO artist whilst the other is a blood and guts warrior.

Going into the bout Donaire is a big betting favourite (priced around 1/8) and with good reason having looked like a fighter who has been in cruise control in his his recent victories over solid competition such as Toshiaki Nishioka (TKO9), Jeffrey Mathebula (UD12) and Wilfredo Vazquez Jr (some how scored an SD12). Despite his victories there has been questions asked about whether Donaire actually is in cruise control or is actually not as spectacular as once though and whether or not the 30 year old Filipino born fighter is actually on the slide himself against opponents who were there to make him look good.

At his best Donaire is a hard hitting, swift accurate counter puncher who can fight either as an orthodox fighter or as a southpaw. With that ability he's managed to score highlight reel KO's over the likes of Fernando Montiel and Vic Darchinyan. Sadly however those victories seem a long time ago with Donaire's "cruise control" victories over the much smaller Omar Andres Narvaez, the limited Wilfredo Vazquez Jr and the very clumsy Jeffrey Mathebula.

Despite starting his career as a Flyweight, Donaire is still very capable in terms of his speed and power all the way up at Super Bantamweight, with the likely result of this fight seeing him move up to Featherweight for his next bout. Seen as a genuinely top pound-for-pound fighter Donaire, when he steps through the gears is a special fighter, though when he's fighting with in himself he looks awfully over-rated and unspectacular.

Like the champion, the challenger, Jorge Arce has gone through the weights having first won a world title way down at Light Flyweight and having also claimed versions of various titles at Flyweight, Super Flyweight, Bantamweight and Super Bantamweight. Although several of those titles were "interim" titles he is the first Mexican to have any claim to being a 5-weight world champion.

Although Arce is just 3 years older than the champion he's a very old 33 having not had 402 professional rounds, but also a career that dates back to 1996 and has featured more wars than your typical history book. It goes with out saying that Arce's wars have taken their toll on him and it's incredibly rare to see an Arce bout that doesn't see the Mexican left with claret pouring out of his face. Sadly the damage doesn't seem to have forced Arce to tighten up his defense as he attempts to draw everyone in to a battle of attrition, sometimes it works (such as 2011's 12 round TKO over Wilfredo Vazquez Jr) and sometimes it doesn't (as shown in an 11th round TKO loss to Vic Darchinyan).

Due to the fact Arce likes to come to fight I imagine this may not go the distance. Although Donaire is a big favourite, it's possible that Arce can wear him down if he can cut the distance and keep on Donaire's chest neutralising his deadly counter hooks. Sadly for Arce, one of my favourite fighters over the years, I don't think he can cut the distance with out being tagged by bombs on the way in.

Prediction-Nonito Donaire TKO6

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