Thursday 27 September 2012

Liborio Solis v Victor Zaleta

WBA "interim" Super Flyweight champion Liborio Solis (14-3-1, 7) looks to make the second defense of his title as he faces Mexican challenger Victor Zaleta (20-2-1, 10) in a bout that really will only interest the hardcore of the hardcore. Sadly it's a bout that tells us everything we need to know about "interim" titles and why they are a waste of time for us, the fans.

Solis won the "interim" title last December by out pointing Mexican Jose Salgado in a split decision and since then he has made a solitary defense, by defeating the completely undeserving Argentinian Santiago Ivan Acosta (who had lost 7 of his previous 8 bouts!).

Prior to winning the "interim" title, Solis' career had been fought in relative obscurity mainly in his native Venezuela where he debuted back in 2000. It was in Venezuela that Solis would record his first 3 professional victories before suffering a technical draw with Jose Ignacio Sanchez. Oddly following this draw Solis' doesn't seem to have fought again for 5 years before resurfacing in 2007.

On his return to the ring, Solis scored 2 more victories at home before suffering his first loss as he traveled to Aruba and was out pointed by Yenifel Vicente. Solis would quickly bounce back and win his next 4 contests and also claim his first professional title (the Venezuelan Super Flyweight title) before suffering back to back losses away from home (SD9 to Henry Maldonado in Nicaragua, and a UD8 loss to Ricardo Nunez in Panama).

Since the loss to Nunez, Solis has been on a run of 5 straight wins with the highlight of those being the victory, in Mexico over Salgado for the title.

In terms of his style, I've seen pretty limited footage, however he's looked a talented fighter in all that I've seen. He's not a big hitter but lands cleanly with a huge variety of punches (on both the outside and inside) and looks a much more skilled all-round fighter than most other Venezuelans who tend to stand out for one reason another as opposed to being particularly rounded.

The challenger, Victor Zaleta, started his own professional career in 2007 and won his first 6 contests. Amazingly in those 6 bouts he defeated two former world champions (Eric Ortiz-former WBC Light Flyweight champion and Jose Antonio Aguirre-former WBO Minimumweight champion).

Zaleta suffered his first professional loss in his 7th bout as he was out pointed by Faustino Cupul in an attempt to claim the NABF Flyweight title however he bounced back quickly and claimed the vacant WBC FECOMBOX Super Flyweight title in his very next bout by stopping Gilberto Keb Baas. Despite having only fought 8 times up to this point Zaleta had defeated 2 "former" champions and one "future" champion, an impressive stat by anyone's standards.

Zaleta would swiftly move his record to 17-1 defending his WBC FECOMBOX title twice (including scoring a second win over Keb Baas) and adding the CABOFE Super Flyweight title to his cabinet before fighting for his first world title. Sadly for Zaleta he came up short against the incredibly talented Argentinian Omar Andres Narvaez in a bout for the WBO Super Flyweight title.

Since losing to Narvaez, Zaleta has won 3 and drawn one, and defended the WBC FECOMBOX Super Flyweight title twice. Worryingly however Zaleta has been downed in 2 of those 4 fights perhaps showing signs of struggling to make the 115lbs Super Flyweight limit and he has also been somewhat lucky not to have picked up another loss with 3 split decisions (including the draw) in those 4 bouts.

Despite an excellent start to his career Zaleta hasn't really fulfilled his early promise, however he is still a very hard working Mexican fighter, not the most skilled but he has a lot of heart and has got genuinely hurtful power (just ask Gilberto Keb Baas who was stopped in eye catching fashion in their first bout). Sadly however in his biggest fight to date he was totally outclassed by Narvaez who was far too good and almost made Zaleta freeze in the ring.

This is a pretty hard fight to call, though with the home advantage I have to go with Solis to retain his title. Whilst he may not hit hard enough to stop Zaleta I think he's probably a bit too skilled for the Mexican who will refuse to go away but will struggle to enforce his style on the bout.

Prediction- Solis UD12

Wednesday 26 September 2012

Alexander Povetkin v Hasim Rahman

As boxing fans we are all too aware of mismatches which are made for one reason or another, though rarely do we consider "mandatory title fights" to be mismatches. Sadly however the upcoming WBA Heavyweight title bout between unbeaten champion Alexander Povetkin (24-0, 16) and mandatory challenger Hasim Raham (50-7-2-1, 41) appears to be nothing other than a mandatory mismatch of the highest order.

Despite once being the "the" Heavyweight champion Hasim Rahman is nothing more than a washed up has been (Hasbeen Rahman?) and is a fighter who is not only nearing 40 but is with out a noteworthy win in over 7 years.

Known as "The Rock" Rahman has been a professional since 1994 and started his career excellently with 29 straight wins before being controversially stopped by David Tua in 1998. A year later, Rahman's record had fallen to 31-2 having suffered a second stoppage loss, this time to Oleg Maskaev who knocked Rahman out of the ring.

Rahman fought back hard following his 2 losses and scored wins over the tough Marion Wilson, the late Corrie Sanders and Frankie Swindell. Following those 3 victories he signed to fight Lennox Lewis in a bout for the WBC and IBF Heavyweight titles and scored the biggest upset of 2001 by knocking Lewis out with a monster right hand. Sadly however Rahman's title reign lasted just 7 months before Lewis avenged his loss and knocked out Rahamn.

Following the loss to Lewis Rahman would struggle to restart his career and failed to win any of his next 3 bouts, losing to both Evander Holyfield (TD8) and John Ruiz (UD12) whilst drawing to David Tua in a rematch. Following these set backs at world level Rahman dropped back a level and scored a number of easier victories over a combination of journeymen and fringe level fighters before being lined up to fight Vitali Klitschko. Sadly injuries to Klitschko forced their bout to delayed numerous times, before finally forcing Klitschko to retire. Prior to Klitschko's retirement however Rahman had claimed the WBC "interim" title by defeating Monte Barrett (UD12).

After Vitali Klitschko retired Rahman was promoted to full WBC champion making just 1 successful title defense, a draw with James Toney before being knocked out of the ring for a second time by Oleg Maskaev who claimed the WBC title as a result. Since this loss Rahman has been toiling in relative obscurity barring a loss to Wladimir Klitschko in 2008, where Rahman incidentally filled in after Povetkin pulled out of the bout.

At his best Rahman was a tough and hard hitting fighter, perhaps not genuinely "world class" (despite his victory over Lennox Lewis) but certainly a credible fighter for a world title bout. His best however was some 10 years ago however and since then he has really struggled to make any sort of actual impact. It's fair to say that despite losing only one of his last 11 bouts he has been beating very low level opponents and fighters that really don't register on the world scene.

Whilst Rahman has been wasting his time with meaningless bouts in recent years Povetkin has been a busy man who advanced his professional career quickly before starting to disappoint in recent bouts.

Prior to turning professional Povetkin was an outstanding amateur and won Gold medals at the Olympics (2004), World Amateur Championships (2003) and European Championships (2004, 2002) showing himself to be a genuinely top level amateur. Due to his amateur credentials a lot was expected from him when he turned professional in 2005.

Povetkin's rise through the rankings early in his career was genuinely exceptional as he scored notable wins from the off and with in his first 10 bouts he had already beaten the likes of Friday Ahunanya, Livin Castillo and Imamu Mayfield. His rise continued over his next 5 fights and he quickly became the IBF #1 contender thanks to victories over Chris Byrd and Eddie Chambers. At this point he was the hottest thing in Heavyweight.

Sadly since becoming the #1 IBF Povetkin's career has been awfully disappointing, notably by his refusal to actually fight the IBF's champion Wladimir Klitschko which has left many boxing fans thinking he is somewhat a chicken. Instead of facing Klitschko as far back as 2008 Povetkin instead chose to face some very poor opponents such as Taurus Sykes, Javier Mora and Nicolai Firtha.

In 2011 Povetkin finally fulfilled some of his early career promise as he claimed the WBA Heavyweight title by defeating former champion Ruslan Chagaev, though most knew that the WBA title was really a paper title as Wladimir Klitschko had won the WBA "Super" title at Heavyweight. Despite calls, once again, for Povetkin to face Klitschko, the Russian instead choose to face aging American Cedric Boswell before defending against Cruiserweight Marco Huck (in what was an enthralling bout).



Povetkin is a durable fighter and he has solid skills as well as a solid engine but sadly he doesn't seem to do anything fantastically. His skills from the amateurs don't seem to be that sharp, he's not particularly fast and he's not a fighter who has shown any true 1-punch KO power. If anything his strength was his desire early in his career but even that seems to have dropped off in recent bouts.

Despite being a talented fighter Povetkin has disappointed us in his choice of opposition in recent years and whilst we're willing to admit that he is fighting a mandatory opponent in Hasim Rahman this is another poor match for Povetkin. I'd genuinely be shocked if Povetkin struggled here and would happily put money on his scoring a stoppage over Rahman, who will hopefully bow out of the sport following this bout.

Prediction-Povetkin TKO7

Thursday 20 September 2012

Ricky Burns v Kevin Mitchell

Arguably the highlight of this coming weekend is the all British WBO Lightweight title bout between champion Ricky Burns (34-2, 9) and highly regarded challenger Kevin Mitchell (33-1, 24). Not only is it an all British affair but it's also got the added spice of being Scotland v England adding further to what is arguably the most anticipated all British fight of the year.

Scotland's Ricky Burns lacked the hype early in his career that many others got and as a result he wasn't matched in a way that many other top fighters are. In fact for the first few years of his career his was given really very little in terms of developmental fights before being thrown in with then then British Lightweight champion Graham Earl, who he unexpectedly defeated back in 2005 (when Earl was 22-0, whilst Burns was just 9-0).

Despite scoring the upset victory over Earl he was still not acknowledged as a genuinely promising young fighter and was instead thrown to the wolves against Alex Arthur just a few bouts later. At that time Arthur was the European, British and Commonwealth champion at Super Featherweight with a record of 21-1, his experienced told and he showed up the inexperienced Burns by taking a wide decision.

Burns would suffer his second loss just a year later as the hard hitting Carl Johanneson defeated him in a British Super Featherweight title clash. This seemed to be the turning point and Burns would almost re-start his career. Burns began facing journeymen once again before rebuilding his confidence and swiftly moving on to claim his first professional title, the Commonwealth Super Featherweight title. He would defend this title 3 times before moved on to his first world title fight.

In 2010 Burns announced himself to the boxing world by out pointing the highly regarded Puerto Rican Roman Martinez for the WBO Super Featherweight title. He would defend this title 3 times before moving up to Lightweight where he would quickly claim the WBO "interim" Lightweight title with an upset over the hard hitting Australian Michael Katsidis. The interim title quickly got upgraded to the full version of the title and Burns has since managed a solitary defense by out pointing Paulus Moses last time out.

Stood at 5'10" it's a wonder that Burns ever managed to fight at Super Featherweight, he looks huge at Lightweight and must have been really taking a lot out of himself at 130. Despite looking huge at 135lbs he's not actually a big puncher, instead he's a classic boxer who uses his jab and movement to control range, whilst also being able to mix it off the ropes. Whilst I doubt few will agree, Burns is amongst the best pure boxers in the sport and if he relies on his boxing ability I can only see 1 man at Lightweight beating him (Miguel Vazquez).

If Ricky Burns is seen as British boxing's "over-achiever" of modern times then Kevin Mitchell is almost certainly British boxing's under-achiever. When he turned professional back in 2003 it was expected that Mitchell would swiftly rise through the ranks. He had looked sensational in claiming an ABA title and was seen almost as a certainty to be fast tracked towards a world title. Sadly however he has yet to realise his professional boxing dream of being a world champion.

Mitchell's early years as a professional were not only very highly hyped but he was also developed properly. In his 17th fight Mitchell claimed his first professional title by winning the IBF Inter-Continental Super Featherweight title and less than a year later Mitchell added the Commonwealth title to his collection. It was seen that he was being allowed to develop and move forward at a comfortable speed rather than being rushed into bouts against opponents that he stood little to no chance to defeat.

Despite having claimed the IBF Inter-continental and Commonwealth titles Mitchell's career started to stall somewhat. His good match making had taken him to a solid level but he just seemed to be stuck on a plateau of sorts with no moving upwards and onwards. He held the IBF Super Feather Inter-Continental title for almost 2 years and yet never moved onto a world title bout as the IBF world title was passed around various weak champions such as Gairy St Clair and Cassius Baloyi.

After wasting over 3 years treading water at Super Featherweight Mitchell moved to Lightweight and swiftly made an impact by thoroughly out boxing the hard hitting Colombian Breidis Prescott. Mitchell followed up the excellent performance over Prescott by stopping Ignacio Mendoza in eye catching fashion before getting his first world title fight against Michael Katsidis.

Mitchell was given the big build up to face Katsidis, not only was the bout at the home of Mitchell's beloved West Ham United, but he also had the "Cockney Rejects" singing his entrance music. Sadly however Mitchell got caught by a hard Katsidis shot in round 3 and was soon stopped as the Australian started to let his hands go.

Following the loss to Katsidis, it quickly emerged that Mitchell hadn't trained particularly hard for the fight as various problems outside the ring distracted him. Sadly this appeared to be a case of a losing fighter making excuses for a poor performances rather than just admitting he was beaten by the better man.

Since his loss to Katsidis, Mitchell has bounced back well with victories over John Murray (TKO8) and Felix Lora (Pts10) and now appears determined to finally reach his potential as world champion. He appears to be in a good mindset and seems to have been training well for this bout knowing that it's his big chance at redemption. Mitchell will know perfectly well that fans will not put up with excuses this time and that he needs to deliver.

In terms of his style Mitchell is a very talented fighter who can really do pretty much anything. He has heavy powerful hands that can hurt pretty much anyone, he's got fast hands that can throw beautiful counters and combinations and has very solid footwork which can be used both defensively and offensively. In fact in terms of talent Mitchell may well be one of the very best fighters out there at the moment to have never claimed a world title.

Whilst Mitchell is hugely talented I can't help but think stylistically he's going to really struggle here. Burns may only be slightly bigger but he uses his size so well, his jab is excellent at controlling range and his movement is exceptional. If Mitchell cannot get inside of Burns' jab and straight right hand he'll not have a chance and will easily be out boxed by a fighter who may not have real power but does have snap on his punches. If Mitchell can get inside Burns he can do damage, and could force a stoppage if he can do it often enough, though I think his successes will be limited.

Prediction-Ricky Burns by UD12

Krzysztof Wlodarczyk v Fransico Palacios II

The Cruiserweight has given us some great fights recently with last weekends bout between Yoan Pablo Hernandez and Troy Ross being one of the very best fights of the year. This weekend we get another Cruiserweight title treat as WBC champion Krzysztof Wlodarczyk (46-2-1, 33) makes the fourth defense of his title as he faces Puerto Rican born American based Fransico Palacios (21-1, 13). This bout, a rematch of one of last years most controversial title bouts promises a lot, though will it deliver?

With 49 bouts on his record it's somewhat easy to forget that Krzysztof Wlodarczyk is just 31 years old. It feels as if the Pole has been around for years and to be honest he has, having made his debut a little more than 12 years ago. Despite a really long career Wlodarczyk is somewhat of an unknown outside of the hardcore boxing community, despite the fact he literally fought a who's who of Cruiserweight's.

Wlodarczyk started his career with 20 straight wins and claimed both the IBF Inter-Continental Cruiserweight title and the Polish Cruiserweight before suffering a controversial technical decision loss to Pavel Melkomyan in Germany. Despite the bout being ruled a technical stoppage due to a clash of heads replays seemed to suggest that the fight ending cut was scored by a punch.

It wouldn't take long for Wlodarczyk to bounce back from his first loss and he swiftly captured the WBC Youth Cruiserweight title and soon afterwards the World Boxing Foundation Cruiserweight title. Despite these title wins it wasn't until he claimed the European Union title by stopping Ruediger May in 2005 that he really started to announce himself.

In 2007 Wlodarczyk claimed his first world title as he controversially out pointed American Steve Cunningham for the IBF Cruiserweight title, though his reign was short lived as Cunningham claimed a majority decision in a rematch just 6 months later. This wasn't to be the end of Wlodarczyk at the top level however and just 2 years later Wlodarczyk would challenge Italian Giacobbe Fragomeni for the WBC Cruiserweight title. Despite dropping Fragomeni, the judges scored the bout a draw.

Almost exactly a year after the draw between Fragomeni and Wlodarczyk the two men fought again this time Wlodarczyk would come out on top taking an 8th round TKO victory. Since then Wlodarczyk has defended his title 3 times, including a controversial decision win over Palacios and an 11th round TKO over Australian Danny Green.

Wlodarczyk's record would indicate he's probably a power puncher but in all honesty he's not a powerful hitter, especially not at world level however he is a grinder and hits hard enough that you feel his shots even if no single blow will take an opponent out. Sadly however the Pole can be frustrating to watch as he can often lose focus in bouts and give rounds away by doing nothing, a problem we saw in a number of rounds against Green last time out. At his best he's exceptional, capable of throwing hurtful shots to the head and body and using very accurate fast jabs, at his worst however he's really awful.

At 35 years old Palacios is the older man, though he hasn't had the ring years of the champion. In fact not only has Palacios only fought 22 times as a professional but he's also only been a pro since 2004. Despite his relatively short professional career Palacios has a solid amateur background and he competed at the 2003 World Amateur Championships (losing controversially to Erbol Babayev).

Since turning over to the paid ranks Palacios has adapted well and started his professional career with an impressive 20 straight wins. In those 20 fights Palacios claimed the WBA Fedelatin Cruiserweight title by impressively stopping former world title challenger Luis Andres Pineda and defended that belt once stopping Lawrence Chapman inside a round.

With his amateur background it goes with out saying that Palacios is a talented fighter and knows how to use all of the punches in book with his busy jab being a key yo many of his attacks. He's at his best however when he's able to let his hands go something he used effectively when he first faced Palacios last year, sadly however the referee repeatedly broke up the action when Palacios was getting the better of it.

With the controversial nature of the first bout, which many though Palacios had won, this bout is a long awaited rematch and one that many fans would have preferred to have seen last year however it still serves to be an intriguing bout.

Against Green, Wlodarczyk looked like he was a fighter who didn't want to fight any more, he was a man who looked to be there in body but not in mind until he felt his title was being taken from him. Against Palacios he's fighting a much better fighter than Green and one who is there to take the title back from Poland come hell or high water and one who I feel will not be denied this time around. Expect Wlodarczyk to be forced to work at a high tempo, something that will not like suit him and expect him to lose rounds as a result. Whilst the judging may be questionable I just can't see the "3 wise men" favouring Wlodarczyk quite as much as they did last time, especially after the backlash by those watching.

Prediction-Palacios SD12

Juan Carlos Sanchez Jr v Rodel Mayol

Earlier this year the young Juan Carlos Sanchez Jr (14-1-1, 7) claimed his first world title by defeating the more experienced Rodrigo Guerrero for the IBF Super Flyweight title. Sanchez Jr has defended that title once, by defeating former champion Juan Alberto Rosas and this week end will be looking to defeat another former world champion in a defense of his own title as he faces Rodel Mayol (31-5-2, 22).

At just 21 years old Sanchez is one of, if not the, youngest world champion out there at the moment, and is also one of the least experienced. Despite this he's not being given the softly softly treatment of so many young fighters out there who refuse to face a decent test until they've milked their world title for a year or two.

Sanchez has been a professional since 2008, when he was just 17. He would start his career with 7 straight victories with 6 of those coming by T/KO. His winning run however ended abruptly with an opening round technical decision with journeyman Felipe Acosta. Following the Acosta bout, Sanchez suffered his first (and so far only) loss as he was stopped in 2 rounds by Daniel Rosas (who later went on to fight for a world title himself).

Since suffering the loss to Rosas, Sanchez has rebuilt his career brilliantly with 7 straight wins. Not only has he scored notable wins over Guerrero and Rosas (as mentioned in the paragraph) but he has also beaten the then 18-0 Juan Francisco Estrada (who has recently stopped former world title challenger Ardin Diale). These victories have proven that Sanchez at least deserves his place amongst the top men at 115lbs even if he's not the top dog himself.

In terms of Sanchez the fighter, he is a huge southpaw who is not only difficult due to his stance but also his freaky frame. He manages to make 115lbs despite standing over 5'8". This freakish size sees him towering almost everyone else at the weight and although he may not be the most powerful guy at the weight (in fact he's only scored 1 T/KO in his last 9 fights) he does hit hard enough to hurt guys.

Unlike the champion, the challenge is an experienced veteran. Not only has Mayol been in more than twice as many bouts but he's been in the ring with some true top talent in a career that spans over a decade.

Mayol debuted as a professional 2000 when he was just 18 and he started his career with an excellent 22 fight winning streak before fighting for his first world title. In his first title tilt, he faced Japanese based Thai Eagle Den Junlaphan and despite putting up a spirited effort Mayol was out pointed.

Ever since his first world title bout, Mayol has been in the title picture with a number of world title fights against some of the best fighters out there. Over the past few years Mayol has faced Ulises Solis, Adrian Hernandez, Ivan Calderon (twice), Edgar Sosa, Omar Nino Romero (twice) and Julio Cesar Miranda. Whilst he suffered losses in a number of those bouts (Solis, Hernandez, Calderon and Romero) he also picked up some credible wins, including stopping Sosa and out pointing the tough Julio Cesar Miranda.

Whilst he's an experienced fighter and a tough fighter, Mayol does have a reputation for being dirty. Not only has he got 2 technical decisions with Ivan Calderon due to head clashes but his victory over Sosa was also marred by a nasty headbutt that Sosa never recovered from.

Despite being quick handed and aggressive Mayol doesn't have the power in his punches that he maybe needs against the best fighters at 115lbs. Whilst he did drop Miranda numerous times last time out in a bout made at the Super Flyweight limit it needs to be noted that Miranda himself was a career Flyweight going into that bout.

So now, to this bout. Whilst Mayol certainly has the experience and the craftiness to make life difficult for everyone in the lower divisions of the sport, I can't help but think that the size difference here will really show. Sanchez is longer, taller and not going to be easy to headbutt, he'll try to stay on the outside but even on the inside the Mexican should be stronger and able to almost push Mayol away with his shots. Mayol is tough and tenacious, having not been stopped in over 4 years and whilst I expect he will see the end, don't be shocked if he is down at some point.

Prediction-Sanchez UD12

Wednesday 19 September 2012

Diego Gabriel Chaves v Jose Miranda

This weekend sees unbeaten Argentinian Diego Gabriel Chaves (21-0, 17) make the first defense of his WBA "interim" Welterweight title as he faces the somewhat uninspiring Jose Miranda (12-11-3, 8) in what appears to be a mismatch from the off.

The hard hitting Chaves claimed the title earlier this year when he stopped Frenchman Ismael El Massoudi in 3 rounds and made his first major mark on the boxing world. Although unknown by many in Europe and even North America, the hard core fans had been been following him for a while, with fans in his homeland dubbing him "La Joya" -The Jewel.

Chaves turned professional in 2008 after a credible amateur career and debuted in July '08. Within a year of being a professional he had swiftly raced out to 10-0 (9) with 8 victories in the first 2 rounds as he simply blew opponents away with hurtful nasty shots. It would take much longer for him to add his first professional title as he claimed the WBO Latino Light Middleweight title just a fight later.

After defending the WBO Latino Light Middleweight title once, Chaves dropped down to the Welterweight division and swiftly claimed the WBO Latino Welterweight title. He defend this second title 5 times as he moved his record to 20-0 (16) and defeated veterans Omar Gabriel Weis and Jorge Daniel Miranda.

Following the 5 WBO Latino Welterweight title defenses Chaves would then go on to defeat El Massoudi for the WBA "interim" Welterweight title.

Whilst he's a noted puncher Chaves does have some solid skills there to rely on if needed. He's never going to become a true slickster but he will make enjoyable fights with his aggressiveness and power which is deadly to both the head and body. This does often leave him there to be hit, and he can be hurt, in fact he's been down several times so far in his career, however he appears to be able to regroup and get back to work with out too many issues.

Sadly for Chaves' first defense he will be facing the very limited Panamanian Jose Miranda who's career so far has been really unspectacular in terms of results and performances.

Miranda made his professional debut way back in 2000 as a Super Bantamweight and despite starting with 4 wins it didn't take long for his record to become somewhat patchy as he swiftly fell to 4-2-2 (2).

Despite scoring 3 successive wins between September 2002 and August 2003 it didn't take long for Miranda's record to really falter as he scored only 2 wins in his next 12 bouts as he fell to 9-11-3 (6). Whilst some of those losses came to decent fighters, including the likes of Darley Perez, Alberto Mosquera, Johan Perez and former world champion Vicente Mosquera they were still career damaging losses.

Surprisingly Miranda has won his last 3 fights, including scoring a notable victory over William Gonzalez. Despite scoring those 3 victories they were, at best, a level or two below world title level (yes, even some interim titles).

Going in to this bout it's almost impossible to see how Miranda can win. With some 6 stoppage losses to his name we know that Miranda isn't that tough and having started his career way down at Super Bantamweight we also know that Miranda is naturally the smaller man. Perhaps most tellingly, at least from the footage that I've seen, is that Miranda is quite easy to hit and Darley Perez had no issue at all in dropping him twice. Whilst Perez hits hard Chaves hits much harder.

Whilst Miranda has been given a bit of a "Rocky" type chance here it's hard to see him lasting more than a round or two against a fearsome hard hitter like Chaves. Expect this one to be over early.

Prediction-Chaves TKO3

Saturday 15 September 2012

Yoan Pablo Hernandez v Troy Ross

The Cruiserweight division has almost always been one of the most maligned divisions in the sport of boxing, despite this the division has had some absolutely brilliant fights and fantastic fighters. I'm hoping that this coming weekend gives us yet another Cruiserweight cracker as German based Cuban Yoan Pablo Hernandez (26-1, 13) defends his IBF title against Guyana born Canadian Troy Ross (25-2, 16).

At 37 years old Ross will feel that this is his final chance at really making a name for himself having had a frustrating career though he will know that he's a big under-dog needing to go Germany for this fight. Sadly the frustration hasn't all been Ross' own doing but instead he's been part of the unfortunate "who needs him?" club.

Ross first made his name in the amateurs where he twice competed at the Olympics (1996, 2000) and also claimed medals at both the 1998 Commonwealth Games (Silver) and the 1999 Pan Am Games (Bronze). In total Ross fought in a record 91 amateur bouts, winning 81 of them with losses to David Haye, Vassiliy Jirov and Humberto Savigne amongst others.

Ross finally turned professional in 2001 as a Light Heavyweight and on his debut he out pointed the defensively minded Roger Bowden over 4 rounds. Over the following few years Ross would score a series of wins and advance to 12-0 (8) and would appear to be one of the most promising prospects in the Cruiserweight division then his world crashed down as he controversially suffered his first loss, a split decision to Willie Herring.

Despite suffering the loss to Herring, Ross bounced back quickly and in his very next fight he won his first professional title claiming the Canada Cruiserweight title by defeating Claudio Rasco in 8 rounds. Sadly rather than building on this success Troy, for whatever reason over a year inactive not fighting at all in 2006. Thankfully after returning to the ring in 2007 Troy swiftly won  the Commonwealth Cruiserweight title and it seemed as if things were looking on the up and up.

Sadly after 3 fights in just a few months in 2007 Ross was again inactive fighting just once in 2008 as his career momentum was killed off again. Thankfully however Ross's career was given a shot in the arm in 2009 when he was one of 16 fighters selected to be part of the 4th series of "The Contender". In "The Contender" Ross really made a name for himself not only winning the tournament but winning it with relative ease beating Lawrence Tauasa (TKO2), Felix Cora Jr (TKO1), Akinyemi Laleye (UD5) and in the final Ehinomen Ehikhamenor (TKO4). It was hoped that this would move Ross' career on swiftly but sadly his next 2 bouts seemed to be more about staying active than capitalising on his success.

It wasn't until 2010 that Ross finally got his big break as he fought for the IBF title against Steve Cunningham, sadly however Ross was to be controversially stopped on a cut accidentally caused by Cunningham's glove. Despite the controversial nature of the loss many felt that Ross had been impressive dropping Cunningham in round 4, with many suspecting he'd done enough to deserve a rematch. Sadly for Ross he was overlooked and fought just twice in the following 2 years as he moved to 25-2 (16).

In terms of his style Ross is tricky not only due to his southpaw stance but also his fast feet which sees him using a lot of movement and the fact he has heavy hands. He's very tough and can either fight on the counter or fight in short bursts of hard and heavy shots. However at 37 it's fair to say that his natural speed and stamina will be questionable, especially considering his inactivity in recent years which will have done him any favours.

Yoan Pablo Hernandez, 27 will be looking for the second defense of his IBF Cruiserweight title, a title he won from Steve Cunningham almost a year ago. Like Ross, Hernandez was a solid amateur winning the 2001 Cuban Junior Championships and The 2002 World Junior championships, a Pan Am Games Silver medal in 2003 and a Cuban national title in 2005. Rather than continuing on as an amateur in Cuba, Hernandez defected to Germany when he was just 20 years old.

Just months prior to turning 21 Hernandez made his professional debut in Germany where he stopped David Vicena in 2 rounds. Over the following months Hernandez was kept active and within just 4 months he was 4-0 (2). The following year Hernandez was again kept busy and recorded 5 more victories as he moved his record to 9-0 (5) against a low level of opponent.

In 2007 Hernandez won his first professional title as he claimed the WBA Fedelatin Cruiserweight title by defeating Daniel Bispo in just 61 seconds. Before the end of the year Hernandez had added the WBC Latino Cruiserweight title to his collection by stopping Mohamed Azzaoui in 128 seconds as he proved to have genuinely nasty power in his shots. By the end of the year he had moved impressively to 14-0 (8) scoring 6 opening round stoppages.

Having looked impressive in his first 14 bouts Hernandez's handlers decided to set him up and put him in with hard hitting former WBC champion Wayne Braithwaite. The bout started brilliantly with both men landing solid shots on each other in the opening round with Hernandez dropping Braithwaite. In the second round the pace dropped though Hernandez seemed to just knick it with his cleaner punching, however Braithwaite wasn't done and in round 3 he dropped Hernandez three times to force the stoppage. It was this fight that really started a change in Hernandez who became less active and less offensive as a result of being so badly hurt by Braithwaite.

Hernandez bounced back well from the loss to Braithwaite by scoring 2 wins over low level opponents before struggling to victory over journeyman Michael Simms who managed to drop Hernandez in the 7th round of an 8 round contest. Although he managed to score the win he had been lucky, and didn't look like the once impressive prospect that had tore through his earlier opponents.

Since the lucky victory over Simms, Hernandez has been fighting like a boxer with a point to prove. In 2009 and 2010 Hernandez scored notable victories over Aaron Williams, Enad Licina and Cesar David Crenz as he completely rebuilt not only his confidence but also his style. He was no longer trying to take fighters out early but instead using his boxing ability and size to control fights. Whilst he still had power to hurt opponents he seemed more content on winning safe than winning stylish and is appeared to have been working as his record moved to 23-1 (12), scoring just 4 T/KO's in his 9 bouts after facing Braithwaite.

Hernandez would finally prove he was worthy of the early hype 2011 as he stopped Frenchman Steve Herelius (KO7) to claim the interim WBA World Cruiserweight title before controversially out pointing Steve Cunningham for the IBF world title via a 6th round Technical Decision. Hernandez would then rematch Cunningham, just a few months ago, and take a clear cut decision over the American, dropping Cunningham hard twice in the 4th round.

Whilst Hernandez's record may not represent that of a hard puncher he does hit incredibly hard, especially when he lets his hands go, which are very fast in combinations. Sadly however Hernandez seems to have become apprehensive since both the Briathwaite and Simms fight and instead of letting his hands go he often seems happier to box at a slower pace, often fighting as counter puncher. Whilst still very talented he's not the exciting destructive force he once was, which is probably a good thing as I do question whether or not his stamina can hold out at a high work rate.

So, finally, on to the actual fight. Whilst Ross is capable of frustrating Hernandez with his movement and jab I just can't see Ross getting a decision in Germany, and I think he knows that. For Ross to win he will have to do what Braithwaite did back in 2008. Yes Ross has the power to do that but he's giving away around 5" and will seriously struggle to get inside Hernandez. Instead I see this being a pretty easy fight for Hernandez who may not have the same foot speed as Ross but has the reach and hand speed to keep him at range. Ross's inactivity, age and size disadvantages as well as the fight being in Germany will count against him and unless he goes for broke and lands the Hail Mary I just don't see him winning.

Prediction-Hernandez Unanimous Decision

Thursday 13 September 2012

Julio Cesar Chavez Jr v Sergio Gabriel Martinez

Undeniably the biggest fight of this coming weekend is the WBC and Ring Magazine Middleweight title bout between unbeaten Mexican Julio Cesar Chavez Jr (46-0-1-1, 32) and the very highly regarded Argentinian Sergio Gabriel Martinez (49-2-2, 28). A bout many thought would never happen.

Going into this fight Sergio Gabriel Martinez, 37, is seen as one of the sports premier fighters. He is widely regarded as being a top 10 pound-for-pound boxer and has been on a roll in recent years with victories over a list of highly respectable opponents, often by knockout, proving that he hits harder than his record indicates.

Despite the fact Martinez is an old fighter in terms of "years" he's not a fighter who shows his age. Not only does Martinez's face look unmarked but his natural speed and timing are also spot on, not something we expect from a fighter in their late 30's. In fact whilst I'm on the subject of Martinez's speed, this is probably his best trait, he's got incredibly fast hands for a Middleweight and also great foot movement allowing him to set up counters with his speed and control the distance and tempo of a bout.

Despite still looking like a "young" fighter Martinez has been around since late 1990's having turned professional in 1997. He started his career 16-0-1 (6) before facing the first recognisable name on his record, Antonio Margarito. Margarito would show his superior experience and manage to wear down Martinez forcing a TKO in round 7 to inflict the first loss on Martinez. Since this loss however Martinez has honed his trade excellently, having spent several years fighting in Europe.

It wasn't until the late 00's that Martinez first started to really get any attention from the boxing community as he defeated Alex Bunema for the interim WBC Light Middleweight title and then faced Kermit Cintron. The bout with Cintron really caught the public's eye with Martinez only getting a draw despite arguably beating Cintron twice. Despite being jobbed to Cintron the fight turned out to be a launch pad for Martinez who would subsequently fight (and controversially lose to) Paul Williams in a fight of the year type bout.

The bout with Williams was followed by a bout with the then Middleweight champion Kelly Pavlik. Martinez showed exceptional boxing ability to defeat the naturally stronger Pavlik by decision before stopping Paul Williams in eye catching fashion to avenge his loss. Following the victory over Williams, Martinez has fought thrice stopping all 3 opponents: Serhiy Dzinziruk (TKO8), Darren Barker (KO11) and Matthew Macklin (TKO11) as he has defended the Ring Middleweight title.

In terms of his style Martinez is a talented outside fighter who fights from a southpaw stance. His KO punch is his thunderous left hook though his jab is also a key and was used to totally neutralise Dzinziruk. Whilst he's not the most defensively sound (often fighting with his hands down low) he is, as mentioned above, a quick fighter and a fighter who uses his feet well, he can however be dropped (as he was by Paul Williams, Kelly Pavlik and Matthew Macklin- though several were merely flash knockdowns).

Despite being the fact many view Sergio Gabriel Martinez as a clear favourite there is a sizable minority who feel that he may be upset by the much young Julio Cesar Chavez Jr, the current WBC Middleweight champion. At just just 26 years old Chavez is coming into his physical prime and it's his physicality that makes him such a live under-dog. Amazingly Chavez often rehydrates to around 180lbs, a huge physical advantage over many Middleweights who Chavez can simply walk through and break down.

Whilst Chavez Jr may be better known due to who his dad is (a former Mexican boxing legend) he is now actually carving out a genuinely respectable career in his own right, perhaps proving to be the best of the "Jr's" out there.

Despite only being 26 Chavez has been around a long time, having made his professional debut way back in 2003 when he was just 17. Early on many followed him due solely to his name and it wasn't until very recently that fans started to accept that Chavez was actually a decent fighter in his own right. For some that turning point was in 2010 when Chavez dominated the highly popular John Duddy over 12 rounds, for others however it was when Chavez managed to out point     Sebastian Zbik for the WBC Middleweight title a year later.

As the WBC champion Chavez has defended his title 3 times defeating Peter Manfredo Jr (TKO5), veteran Marco Rubio (UD12) and Irishman Andy Lee (TKO7) looking better every time. Some however feel that the whole title reign of Chavez Jr is a fraud with the title having been stripped from Martinez prior to Chavez's bout with Zbik.

In terms of his style Chavez is a bully. He's not naturally gifted, he's not a massive puncher and he's not lighting quick but he's a big, strong, hard fighter who will happily take a shot to land his own. He can be out boxed but he is very hard to outwork, especially over 12 rounds where he can use his bulk to his advantage to wear opponents down both mentally and physically. Whilst not a KO puncher Chavez's shots have genuine weight behind them and are genuinely hurtful.

Whilst Chavez is tough I think the key to beating him is move and box him OR hitting him hard enough so that he respects you. I'm not certain that Martinez hits hard enough to make Chavez respect him however he moves well enough to keep Chavez at range and could well defeat Chavez in a similar manner to how he defeated Kelly Pavlik.

For Chavez to win he will not only need to take the hard shots of Martinez but also break the Argentinian down, something that hasn't been done since Margarito did it over a decade ago. Chavez will have to cut the ring down and go to the body of Martinez to slow him down, if he can manage this he does have a real chance of springing the upset.

The question of who controls the distance here, will likely determine who wins.

Prediction- Martinez UD

Roman Martinez v Miguel Beltran Jr

Everyone who follows boxing knows about the huge rivalry between Mexico and Puerto Rico and this weekend we get two new chapters to that long and storied history. In the MGM Grand we have Leo Santa Cruz v Eric Morel (for the IBF Bantamweight title) and at the Thomas and Mack Centre we have a bout for the WBO Super Bantamweight title as Roman Martinez (25-1-1, 16) faces Miguel Beltran Jr (27-1-0-1, 17).

Whilst Miguel Beltran Jr will be going into this bout as the under-dog he will feel the pride of his homeland as he has a chance to Mexico proud on the huge holiday "Grito de Dolores" and when driven on a fighter can do great things. Despite the drive and national pride however Beltran is stepping up somewhat going into this bout having only had 2 rounds at world level so far in his career.

Aged 23 Beltran is still a baby in the boxing world though with 29 fights behind him (including 1 no contest) and over 5 years of experience he's a very experienced baby. Beltran started his career with a brilliant 22 fight winning streak, which saw him scoring notable wins over Eduardo Lazcano (who was then 15-0) and recent world title challenger Miguel Roman before suffering the sole loss of his career so far as he was stopped by Joksan Hernandez.

Following the loss to Hernandez (via 10th round KO) Beltran won his following 4 bouts at a lower level before getting his first world title fight, a bout with IBF Super Featherweight champion Juan Carlos Salgado. Sadly for everyone involved, the bout with Salgado lasted less than 2 rounds due to a clash of heads which resulted in a no contest.

Since the bout between Beltran and Salgado, we've only seen Beltran in the ring once, defeating the very low level Carlos Parra by decision over 6 rounds. Sadly this will likely be the key problem for Beltran-his level of competition simply hasn't been very good (Salgado aside) especially since his loss to Hernandez. This level of competition is fine in your first 15 or so fights but for someone with over 20 fights of experience I don't think Beltran will have learned that much and he has notably never been 12 rounds before. That's not to say he's not a good fighter (because he is) he's just a fighter that perhaps needs more development before he'll manage to win a big one. He's a solid fighter but lacks the power to really get a fighters attention and lacks the experience to know what to do when a good fighter turns up in front of him and doesn't go away.

Whilst Beltran is known somewhat by hardcore fans Roman Martinez is much more well known by the boxing community. He's been a professional for over a decade and has previously held the WBO Super Featherweight title as well as having faced a number of well known opponents.

Martinez first came to prominence around 2007 with victories over the likes of Francisco Lorenzo and Daniel Jimenez as he claimed various regional titles. He would build on his success the following year with victories over Santos Benavides and Walter Estrada before claiming his first world title in 2009 by stopping Britain's Nicky Cook.

As the WBO Super Featherweight champion Martinez defended his title twice stopping both Feider Viloria and Gonzalo Munguia before losing a close decision to current WBO Lightweight champion Ricky Burns (despite putting Burns down in the opening round).

Since losing to Burns, way back in 2010, Martinez has fought only once, stopping former world title contender Daniel Attah in 6 rounds to claim the WBO Inter-Continental Super Featherweight title. Sadly this is the big worry about Martinez, his inactivity in recent years with just 1 fights in the last 24 months! He's a hugely talented fighter with respectable power (more so than his record indicates) and solid skills (though defensively he can be tagged), though how his time off will have effected him is a big question.

If this was the Martinez of 3 years ago this match would be an easy one to call with Martinez's proven class being the difference between the two men, however with the long lay off it's much harder to call. Despite this I still favour Martinez who is a much, much better opponent than anyone Beltran has ever faced (aside from Salgado). Martinez will almost certainly struggle to get going early on though I'd be shocked if he doesn't find his rhythm after 4 rounds and either take a clear decision or score a stoppage in the second half of the bout.

Prediction-Martinez TKO8

Wednesday 12 September 2012

Guillermo Rigondeaux v Robert Marroquin

Cuban former amateur standout Guillermo Rigondeaux (10-0, 8) may well be the most gifted fighter in world boxing today though sadly the current WBA Super Bantamweight champion isn't yet getting the sort of fights he deserves. This weekend Rigondeaux defends his world title against American youngster Robert Marroquin (22-1, 15) in what appears to be nothing more than a mismatch.

The unbeaten Cuban was one of, if not the best, amateur of the early 00's claiming 2 Olympic gold medals (2000, 2004) and 2 World Amateur titles (2001, 2005) whilst compiling well over 300 wins to just 12 losses. He was sensational. Power, speed, skills, timing Rigondeaux really did have it all.

In 2007 Rigondeaux defected from Cuba though was later captured and brought back to the land of his birth. Just 2 years later however Rigondeaux defected again and was this time successful as he set up home in Miami and started his professional career, a career that has so far seen him swiftly rise to world level with the those same skills he honed in the amateurs rankings.

After making his debut in May 2009, Rigondeaux swiftly raced through the rankings before claiming the interim WBA World Super Bantamweight title in just his 7th bout as he out pointed former world champion Ricardo Cordoba. It had taken Rigondeaux just 18 months to go from his debut to "interim" world champion.

After defending the "interim" WBA title once Rigondeaux would claim the full version of the WBA title by stopping the champion Rico Ramos in 6 rounds via a devastating body shot. Since winning the full version of the title Rigondeaux has made just a solitary defense as he dominated the over-matched Teon Kennedy.

At almost 32 years old Rigondeaux is "getting on a bit" though he is still very fresh due to his short professional career. He is still lightning quick with his hands and even quicker with his brain able to out think opponents as he sets traps and land with devastating counters, though he's also more than capable of going forward and being an accurate aggressive fighter. He will however be seeking to make an impression.

Challenger Robert Marroquin may be significantly younger than the champion (at just 23) though surprisingly he has significantly more professional experience at 23 fights already (and 94 rounds, to Rigondeaux's 47). Sadly however the additional professional experience is unlikely to prevent him from being any more than a sacrificial lamb.

Marroquin himself debuted back in 2008 as just a teenager and won his first 19 fights (14 of those by KO) before suffering the solitary defeat of his career by the upset minded Francisco Leal who took the fight to Marroquin on route to claiming a split decision. Since that loss however Marroquin has bounced back well and recorded 3 successive wins over limited opposition.

In terms of talent Marroquin is "solid", he has respectable power and a solid defense, however the Leal fight proved that he can be marked up. Whilst he has been dropping guys like Eduardo Arcos with solid shots in fights he is sadly taking a massive step up in class to face Rigondeaux who, like Leal is a southpaw.

Whilst some may be giving Marroquin a chance based on his record and the way he has beaten low level opponents (and seriously they have been low level opponents) I really can't see it. I can really only see one winner and that's Rigondeaux, the big question however is "how"? In all honesty Marroquin has never been hit by someone like Rigondeaux and I imagine when he's hit by Rigondeaux he will really feel it and will, as most Rigondeaux opponents, think twice about letting his hands go in fear of being countered. He may survive the distance but I don't see it.

Prediction-Rigondeaux TKO5

Jhonny Gonzalez v Daniel Ponce De Leon

With the "Grito de Dolores" holiday ahead of us both Top Rank and Golden Boy Promotions have set up cards aiming to appeal to the massive Mexican boxing community. Whilst Golden Boy have gotten Saul Alvarez v Josesito Lopez the most exciting bout on their card is actually the bout for the WBC Featherweight title between Jhonny Gonzalez (52-7, 45) and challenger Daniel Ponce De Leon (43-4, 35).

Whilst Saul "Canelo" Alvarez may be seen as the future of Mexican boxing, Ponce De Leon and Gonzalez are both veterans, but both are veterans who have power and and excitement running through their veins, which is why I, like many others, love this bout.

The champion, Jhonny Gonzalez, first fought professionally way back in 1999 and actually started his career with 2 losses. In fact early in his career the young Gonzalez wasn't really expected to achieve a whole lot suffering 4 losses in his first 18 professional bouts. Despite this Gonzalez continued to fight on and in 2005 he scored his big breakthrough by stopping Thai Ratanachai Sor Vorapin to claim the WBO Bantamweight title.

After winning the world title Gonzalez would begin to mix with genuine world level fighters on a regular basis and scored notable wins over Marc Johnson, Fernando Montiel and Irene Pacheco. Those wins were however marred somewhat with losses to Israel Vazquez (at Super Bantamweight) and Gerry Penalosa, both by TKO as Gonzalez showed real fragility.

It didn't take long for Gonzalez to bounce back from those losses an less than 2 years later he was again fighting for a world title as he took on the very talented Japanese fighter Toshiaki Nishioka for the WBC Super Bantamweight title. Despite dropping Nishioka in the opening round Gonzalez was eventually stopped himself in round 3. Gonzalez's drive and determination saw him refusing to give up on himself and 2 years later he completely revitalised his career by stopping Hozumi Hasegawa and claiming the WBC Featherweight title, finally becoming a 2-weight world champion.

Since claiming the WBC Featherweight in April 2011 Gonzalez has made 4 world title defenses including 3 by stoppage (With only Elio Rojas managing to survive the distance). Amazingly only 3 of Gonzalez's last 26 fights have gone the schedule.

Despite his reputation as a hard hitting but fragile fighter Gonzalez is actually a genuinely talented boxer who just so happens to have incredibly heavy hands. He can box well behind the jab and has started to use his experience more to make up for his perceived fragilities. When he lands he lands hard but don't let that confuse you into thinking he's just a raw banger because he's really much more.

The challenger, Daniel Ponce De Leon is the slightly older man at 32 years old  though has "only" been boxing since 2001. Like Gonzalez he has made his name by being an incredibly hard puncher in fact Ponce De Leon actually started his career with an amazing 21 straight T/KO's all of which all but a handful came in the first 5 or so rounds.

After compiling an excellent record of 24-0 (23) Ponce De Leon would step up for the first time and face Panamanian "freak" Celestino Caballero (who despite being a Super Bantamweight at the time stood at an alarming 5'11). Caballero managed to not only survive the distance with Ponce De Leon but also become the first man to defeat the Mexican banger.

Ponce De Leon would bounce back from his first career loss by swiftly climbing back up the rankings and by the end of 2005 he had claimed his first world title, the WBO Super Bantamweight title by defeating Sod Kokietgym via decision. As the WBO world champion Ponce De Leon would make 6 successful title defenses with 4 of those coming by T/KO (including opening round KO's over Sod Kokietgym and Rey Bautista) before losing his title to the then emerging Purto Rican Juan Manuel Lopez inside a round.

Following the loss to Lopez, Ponce De Leon rebuilt his record with 7 straight wins before controversially losing to Adrian Broner, and subsequently losing to Cuban star Yuriorkis Gamboa. Since then however Ponce De Leon has won his last 2 bouts (admittedly against lower level fighters) as he's continued to stay busy.

Whilst Ponce De Leon punches like a horse he has often been criticized for being incredibly limited. A few years back one commentator actually said “Well, why would you want to bother to learn to box when you can punch like that?” following a monster punch by Ponce De Leon, however in recent bouts Ponce De Leon does seem to have developed some real boxing skills of his own, whilst he'll never be Pernell Whittaker he's no longer just a crude home run hitter.

On paper this looks like an out and out shoot out. Two huge punchers capable of disconnecting an opponent from their senses and it could well be a case of whoever lands first wins, it genuinely is a fight that promises to be "blink and you miss it". Whilst fights like this may tend to favour the tougher fighter (in this case Ponce De Leon) this is actually a really, really hard call. Ponce certainly seems to have rounded his skills off in recent years but no longer seems to be the monster puncher he once was (scoring only 5 T/KO's in his last 11 bouts) whilst Jhonny stills hurts his opponents with every single shot he lands. With this in mind I'm going with Gonzalez though wouldn't be surprised if Ponce De Leon scored an early stoppage. One thing is for sure, this will not go the distance.

Prediction-Gonzalez TKO4

Saul Alvarez v Josesito Lopez

It's rare for me to genuinely hate a fight but the upcoming WBC Light Middleweight title fight between champion Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (40-0-1, 29) and challenger Josesito Lopez (30-4-0-1, 18) is one that I cannot stomach nor understand.

Ginger haired Saul Alvarez is seen by many in the sport as the emerging Mexican star of the future. He's got a massive fan base that seems to grow after every fight and he's got a pretty fun to watch style that combines heavy hands with some wonderful combinations. At just 21 years old it's fair to say that, if matched well, Alvarez really could be a star for the next 10 or so years, however this brings us to the big problem of Alvarez. Just how do you match a 21 year old world champion with the world looking at him? The answer seems to be softly.

Since his break out US performance against Jose Miguel Cotto back in May 2010 on the Floyd Mayweather Jr v Shane Mosley undercard there has been expectation on Alvarez. This expectation grew suddenly after Alvarez stopped the teak tough Argentinian Carlos Manuel Baldomir and then again when Alvarez claimed the WBC Light Middleweight title by out pointing Matthew Hatton in March 2011. Sadly however Alvarez's reign as world champion, in a solid division, has been less than note worthy with victories over a 35 year old Ryan Rhodes, a horribly undersized Alfonso Gomez, an undeserving Kermit Cintron and an ancient Shane Mosley. In a division that has talent like Floyd Mayweather Jr, Miguel Cotto, Austin Trout, James Kirkland, Erislandy Lara, Javier Maciel, Lukas Konecny and Zaurbek Baysangurov we really need to ask why Alvarez has been content on fighting second rate opponents.

That's not to say that his opponent this coming weekend, Josesito Lopez, is second rate, but he certainly isn't a Light Middleweight or an opponent that we should really be that excited about. Lopez is there as the sacrificial lamb as Golden Boy Promotions continue to develop Alvarez on hype rather than achievement, a risky strategy in this sport.

So why is Lopez not a solid opponent for Alvarez? Well to start this we need to look at Lopez. He may be taller than Alvarez but he's a naturally thin guy and not the thick set build of Alvarez. Just a year ago Lopez was fighting as a Light Welterweight in fact it's almost certain he could make Light Welterweight still if he wanted to. The highest Lopez has ever weighed was just 144¾lbs, over 9 lbs less than the Light Middleweight limit. Again, whilst he is a solid fighter he is no Light Middleweight.

Lopez got this fight after upsetting the Golden Boy Promotions apple cart by stunning Victor Ortiz in June, breaking Ortiz's jaw. The original idea was to put Ortiz in with Alvarez, though again it wasn't a match up I liked when we see the talent in the Light Middleweight division.

Sadly the size factor will never be overcome. Lopez may be able to survive 6 or 7 rounds but the sheer size and power difference is going to be far too much and take it's toll on the California native who I expect to be ground down in the middle rounds before being ultimately stopped. The biggest problem with this fight is sadly the Golden Boy hype train who will continue to declare Alvarez as one of the sports biggest stars despite the fact he'll have only beaten a Light Welterweight.

Prediction- Alvarez TKO 6
To sum this up in a word-Mismatch.

Tuesday 11 September 2012

Leo Santa Cruz v Eric Morel

This coming weekend young Mexican Leo Santa Cruz (20-0-1, 11) will make the first defense of IBF Bantamweight title as he faces Puerto Rican  veteran Eric Morel (46-3, 23) in a bout that it is expected by many to help propel Santa Cruz to the next level.

The 24 year old Santa Cruz is tipped by many as one of the top young Mexican's in the sport and with huge potential to become a star, despite the fact he fights in the lower divisions. So far his rise has been genuinely swift and incredibly impressive.

Santa Cruz debuted in late 2006 aged just 18 and first started to make a name for himself in 2011 as he stopped tough Belgian Stephane Jamoye (KO6) with a devastating body shot. Since then Santa Cruz's rise to the top has been remarkable and thoroughly impressive with victories over former "interim" world champion Jose Lopez (not to be confused Josesito Lopez) and former title contenders Everth Briceno, Alejandro Hernandez and Vusi Malinga.

Despite being young and relatively inexperienced (certainly when compared to his challenger) Santa Cruz is a fighter who has been compared to Antonio Magarito with his superb work rate and relentless pressure as well as in your face mentality. Like Margarito, Santa Cruz isn't an out and out destructive puncher (though his body shots are devastating) but will grind opponents down and break them, both physically and mentally. Whilst he's certainly not a slickster his defense is under-rated and he appears to be very durable.

At 36 years old Eric Morel, the challenger, is a true veteran having fought professional since 1996 and as well as being experienced he's a born survivor in the ring having never been stopped and really even being hurt.

Morel first made his name in the sport in 2000 when he claimed the WBA Flyweight title by defeating Sornpichai Kratingdaenggym. He would keep this title for 3 years making 5 defenses against the likes of Alberto Ontiveros, Gilberto Keb Baas and Denkaosan Kaovichit before losing to Venezuelan Lorenzo Parra. A little over a year after suffering his first professional loss, Morel attempted to claim the WBA Super Flyweight title from Martin Castillo though was widely beaten by Castillo. Following this loss Morel's would spend much of the following 3 years out of the ring following a sexual assault of a 15 year girl.

Having returned to the ring in 2008 Morel would run off a number of wins over lower level opponents before controversially defeating Filipino legend Gerry Penalosa in a bout that most watching felt Penalosa clearly deserved. The win over Penalosa saw Morel claiming the interim WBO Bantamweight title, a title that Morel would never defend instead choosing to fight above the 118lb Bantamweight limit.

In his most recent bout to date Morel lost to the highly regarded Mexican Abner Mares. Despite dominating the bout Mares failed to score a stoppage against Morel who seemed determined to do little more than survive. Despite having an impressive looking record (46-3, 23) and never being stopped Morel has never been an exceptional fighter. He used to have good speed and respectable power however at Bantamweight he really doesn't hit hard and at 37 he's not as fleet on his feet as he once was.

Whilst Morel has never been stopped he did seem on the verge of being stopped by Mares and against Santa Cruz I imagine we could similar scene. Morel is an old man (especially at the lower weights) and with Santa Cruz's relentless offense and refusal to back away added to his lethal body shots, I actually see Santa Cruz becoming the first man to stop Morel. Whilst I do genuinely like Santa Cruz I don't want fans to get too excited by a performance over the old Morel, even if the Mexican does manage to force a late stoppage.

Prediction-Santa Cruz TKO10

Saturday 8 September 2012

Antonio DeMarco v John Molina

Some fights just ooze excitement and the upcoming WBC Lightweight title bout between champion Antonio DeMarco (27-2-1, 20) and highly rated challenger John Molina (24-1, 19) looks like a real show stealer this coming weekend.

At 29 years old American challenger John Molina will know that this is likely to be his big chance at making a name for himself having spent much of his career fighting on things like ESPN Friday Night Fights and ShoBox: The New Generation. Winning a world title won't out and out make him a global boxing star but it will open doors to him and of course bring in much bigger pay days than he's ever likely to get otherwise.

Molina made his professional debut back in 2006 when he defeated Lester Balmores (KO2) and was kept active through out the early part of his career with 9 fights in his first 21 months as a professional. Whilst none of those 9 bouts were huge he did manage to stop the then 7-0 Eddie Brooks in a note-worthy victory.

It was in 2009 that Molina started to get the attention of the boxing world as he started to score a number of notable victories over more well known names including former Commonwealth title contender Joshua Allotey (KO3) and veterans Frankie Archuleta (TKO2) and Efren Hinojosa (KO1). Those wins saw Molina moving to 18-0 (14) and proving that he was a deadly body puncher with many of his stoppages coming after stunning body blows.

Having began to get on a roll Molina was unexpectedly beaten by veteran former title challenger Martin Honorio. Honorio managed to dominate Molina as he used his jab, movement and right hands to the body to upset Molina's momentum whilst Molina himself failed to really get going. Thankfully for Molina it took him little time to recover from his loss and less than 8 months later he scored a notable upset himself stopping the then unbeaten and highly regarded prospect Henry Lundy on ESPN Friday Night Fights. This victory earned Lundy the WBO NABO Lightweight title and solid world ranking. Following the victory over Lundy we've seen Molina score 3 more victories and move his professional record to 24-1 (19). Going into this bout he is the #15th ranked Lightweight according to the WBC (who oddly rank Lundy at #10).

In terms of his style Molina isn't the most skilled (far from it in all honesty) but he's incredibly tough, heavy handed and throws brilliant body shots. Despite being a rather rangy Lightweight (standing around 5'10" an with a 72" reach) Molina likes to fight up close with his fights often becoming a "you hit me, I hit you" affair with his his size and power generally winning. As well as not being the most skilled he's not particularly fast (with either his feet or hands) and he can be out boxed (as Honorio did and as Lundy was doing for a number of rounds) in fat he often looks lumbering when forced to chance opponents.

At 26 years old the Champion Antonio DeMarco is the younger man but he's also a fighter, like the challenger who gives a lot of excitement despite being rather technically limited and that's why some, myself included, are very excited by this bout.

Despite being younger than the challenger DeMarco has been around longer having made his debut back in 2004 when he was just 18. Despite his early start in the sport it wasn't until 2008 that DeMarco started to make a name for himself, helped in part to an appearance on ShoBox: The New Generation where DeMarco defeated the then unbeaten Juan Castaneda Jr. The victory over Castaneda was followed by a decision victory over the then highly ranked Jose Reyes on ESPN Friday Night Fights. Those two victories really started to put DeMarco into some limelight and started his run up the rankings.

Having made a name for himself in 2008 DeMarco continued his rise with televised victories over    Almazbek Raiymkulov (better known as "Kid Diamond"), Anges Adjaho and Jose Alfaro with the victory over Alfaro actually earning DeMarco the WBC interim Lightweight title. DeMarco's winning ways however would come to an end in his next fight as he took a beating from the WBC's full champion Edwin Valero (in what would be Valero's final bout).

The loss to Valero would have finished lesser fighters however DeMarco bounced back from the loss just 5 months later as he defeated Daniel Attah (TKO2) and then followed it up with a victory over Reyes Sanchez (UD12). The victory over Sanchez saw DeMarco become the WBC #1 contender and after Humberto Soto moved up to Light Welterweight we saw DeMarco facing the ultra talented Jorge Linares in a bout for the vacant WBC Lightweight title. Against Linares, DeMarco was clearly out boxed for the 5 rounds however he fought his way back into the bout and eventually ground down a bloodied Linares in round 11 to claim the WBC title.

Since winning the title in October against Linares, DeMarco has defended his belt once viciously stopping Miguel Roman in eye catching fashion. He now looks to secure his second defense inside a year by facing Molina.

Like Molina, DeMarco isn't hugely skilled, he's not a particularly versatile fighter or a fast fighter but he's teak tough (as shown in his battle with Valero) and and happy to walk throw punches to grind down opponents (as shown against Linares). He hits incredibly hard, is accurate and is capable of wearing most opponents down. He's certainly there to be hit but would likely fancy his chances in a war with any top Lightweight as long as they will stand and trade with him.

On paper this looks like a thriller. We have two fighters with power who like to mix it up and depend on their chin and power to win bouts rather than out boxing opponents. This is guaranteed to be a tear up. With this in mind there is only 1 winner, DeMarco is just the more powerful and tougher man, however this will be hugely fun for as long as it lasts.

Prediction- DeMarco by TKO 6 in an all action bout between two guys who will trade off early before DaMarco grinds down the challenger.

Friday 7 September 2012

Lucas Martin Matthysse v Ajose Olusegun

Like everyone else who follows boxing I hate "interim" titles. Whilst I agree in principle with them, they have become incredible misused, especially in recent times where every division appears to have an "interim" by the WBA or the WBO as the organisations look to cash in on an extra stream of revenue. This weekend however we have an "interim" title bout that is hard to argue with, in fact it's slightly shocking that neither man is a world champion already.

In one corner we have the exciting and highly rated Argentinian Lucas Martin Matthysse (31-2-0-1, 29) and in the other we have the unbeaten Nigerian born British citizen Ajose Olusegun (30-0, 14). Both men probably should already have had multiple opportunities at titles though, for one reason or another neither man has been crowned a "world champion" so far.

Firstly lets look at the Argentinian. The 29 year old from Buenos Aires is the younger of the two fighters but also the smaller, more powerful man, in fact one a pound-for-pound ranking Matthysse would ranking up amongst the best for his power. Unlike countryman Marcos Maidana, Matthysse isn't wild and reckless, instead he's a well schooled pressure fighter who uses some very under-rated defensive skills to get inside an opponent and hammer them with hard, thudding shots to both the head and body. Whilst the head shots are capable of shaking anyone at 140lbs the body shots are his trademark and the the blows that break fighters when they land.

Matthysse has been around for a while and was a well established amateur at the turn of the millennium having competed in a number of major international events. After missing out on the 2004 Olympics however Matthysse decided it was time to leave a trail of destruction in the professional ranks.

As a professional Matthysse's power and aggression spoke volumes and none of his first 23 fights went beyond 4 rounds as he ran up a record of 22-0-0-1 (21), his only none T/KO win during that streak was a 3rd round DQ victory over Bernardino Gonzalez. It wasn't until the tough Carlos Adan Jerez that Matthysse would find an opponent who could stand up to his power, however Matthysse scored a clear points win over Jerez (who incidentally had been stopped by Lucas' older brother Walter Dario Matthysse several years earlier).

Having created a bit of buzz back home in Argentina, Matthysse would get his first chance to make a name for himself in the USA as he traveled to face former multi-weight world champion Zab Judah. The bout, aired on HBO saw Matthysse suffering his first professional loss as he was on the receiving end of a highly controversial split decision which many felt should have gone the Argentinians way. Despite the loss to Judah many watching had suddenly become Matthysse fans and fallen in love with the exciting Argentinian who they wanted to see more of. Those fans got their wishes just 7 months later as Matthysse fought former world champion Devon Alexander (who faces Randall Bailey in an IBF Welterweight title bout on the same telecast). History would repeat it's self for Matthysse as, like in the Judah bout, he lost by a controversial split decision in a bout he seemed to clearly win.

It would have been understandable for Matthysse to say screw American after being denied twice by controversial scoring, but he returned to the US earlier this year and defeated former multi-weight champion Humberto Soto by TKO between rounds 5 and 6. It was the win over Soto that saw him earning this bout for the "interim" WBC Light Welterweight title.

As previously mentioned Matthysse is a skilled pressure fighter with very under-rated defense and whilst he does get caught, most shots he gets hit with are glancing shots or taken well. It's his offense however that should be the worrying factor for Olusegun. Not only is Matthysse a hard hitter but he's accurate and can penetrate an opponents guard with alarming regularity. Even if he doesn't land clean his shots hurt and he can put on the pressure late as he showed against Judah. As well as his style he may mentally want this more as well, having twice felt robbed in America he'll likely seek the stoppage victory.

Whilst Nigerian Ajose Olusegun goes into this bout as the less well known fighter he will go into it with a lot of belief that his time has finally come having had a long and drawn out process to finally get his world title opportunity.

Despite being born in Lagos, Nigeria (and competing at the Olympics) it was in Britain that Olusegun earned his professional boxing stripes. He debuted back in 2001 and with in 18 months he had claimed his first professional title, the lightly regarded World Boxing Foundation Intercontinental Light Welterweight title. By the end of 2005 he added both the Nigerian and the African Boxing Union titles at Light Welterweight as he took fights in both Nigerian and Israel.

The first notable victory for Olusegun came in late 2004 as he stopped Welshman Bradley Pryce. Pryce, the nearly man of British boxing, had fought for the British title 19 months earlier and would later go on to claim the Commonwealth title at Light Middleweight. Olusegun would build on the victory over Pryce by knocking out the then promising Ali Nuumbembe in eye catching fashion. It seemed at this point as if Olusegun would be fast tracked to major international titles.

It took a year following Olusegun's victory over Nuumbembe for Olusegun to claim his next title, the Commonwealth Light Welterweight title as he dominated Gary Reid over 12 rounds. This should have been the platform of Olusegun's world title challenge but sadly, due to poor management Olusegun was stuck making defenses of the Commonwealth title and taking several stay busy fights as he patiently waited for an opportunity. After defending the Commonwealth title 4 times (defeating Nigel Wright twice, Scott Haywood and Colin Lynes) and claiming the British title it seemed almost inevitable that Olusegun would chase a world title fight having gotten sick of waiting in line.

In September 2011 Olusegun finally got his chance to make a mark on the world rankings as he made his US debut and faced Frenchman Ali Chebah in a WBC Eliminator. The winner was supposed to fight to winner of the Erik Morales v Pablo Cesar Cano bout, however, despite dominating Chebah the WBC failed to enforce the bout instead allowing the #2 ranked WBC fighter Danny Garcia to face Morales instead.

Olusegun is a hugely talented Southpaw. He may not pack the power of Matthysse but he has blinding hand speed, a huge variety of punches (many of which are thrown from bizarre angles), brilliant reactions, great footwork and beautiful combinations. Olusegun may have, at times shown a lack of interest in the ring (and often toyed with opponents out of boredom) but when he has his mind on the job he can look sensational both going forward and backwards.

What we have here is two very deserving fighters (a real rarity for an "interim" title bout) though two fighters with very, very different styles. Olusegun is the much faster, taller fighter who whilst not really tested at world level has looked sensational against British fights and his performance against Chebah proved that he was at least fringe world level. Matthysse, the smaller fighter (by around 3" in height and 2" in reach) will know that he will need to get inside Olusegun, he will probably also know that he will need to slow Olusegun with body shots if he is going to win this. It's also interesting to note that whilst Matthysse is tested at the higher level both of his losses have come to quick southpaws, something that Olusegun has in common with both Judah and Alexander.

To win this bout Matthysse will need to slow down Olusegun and body shots will be the key. The Argentinian will struggle to get over the notable size disadvantage but he will have to find a way, likely using his under-rated skills to cut off the ring and unleashing shots to the live when up close. He shouldn't be expecting Olusegun to trade with him (like Soto did) but if he can make things close he will have success. This won't be an easy fight for the Argentinian but it is one he will feel he can win, in fact he almost certainly feels he can beat anyone at 140lbs.

Olusegun's keys to victory will be based around his size, movement and speed. If he can keep Matthysse at range by boxing and moving he should be able to pick up the win. Olusegun however will need to keep his wits about him, he can't try to get cheeky or look for a fight with Matthyse as he would likely come off second best. As long as he can keep up a good work rate for the 12 rounds, keeping Matthyse from unloading up close he stands a solid chance. Olusegun cannot look at this bout as his chance to leave 3 years of anger in the ring but instead he need to think of it as his chance to vindicate himself after feeling like he's been avoided for he past few years.

My take on this fight is that Olusegun, with his speed and range will start the bout fast, he will likely reel off the first 3 or 4 rounds and bag them with his movement, work rate and hand speed. However Matthysse is excellent at cutting the ring off and expect him to catch Olusegun at least a couple of times to the body. In the middle rounds the body work will begin to build up from Matthyse and down the stretch the Argentinian will manage to just grind down the Nigerian in the last few rounds.

Matthyse is the favourite and is priced around 4/9 however I have this much closer to a 50-50 bout that could genuinely go either way and whilst I do favour the Argentinian I wouldn't be surprised if he did lose.

This bout has genuine potential to be really exciting (if Matthysse gets his way) or dull (if Olusegun manages to control the whole 12 rounds with his movement and reach) or some where between the two so is certainly worth tuning in for.

Prediction: Matthysse TKO 11

Tuesday 4 September 2012

Andre Ward v Chad Dawson

Whilst many fights have excitement written all over them the upcoming Super Middleweight title bout between the WBC and WBA "super" champion Andre Ward (25-0, 13) and current WBC Light Heavyweight champion Chad Dawson (31-1-0-2, 17) really has "stinker" written all over it.

Despite being the current WBC Light Heavyweight champion Chad Dawson will be dropping 7lbs to challenge for the Super Middleweight titles, a decision that I personally feel he will regret, however it is an in-built excuse for a loss.

Dawson made his professional debut back in 2001 after having had a solid Amateur career which saw him defeating current WBA Light Heavyweight champion Beibut Shumenov and claiming a number of amateur medals (notably a Bronze at the 2000 World Junior Championships). As a professional he showed a lot of early promise and quickly raced to the WBC Youth World Middleweight title in a little over 2 years.

Over the following years Dawson continued to rise through the rankings not only defending his WBC Youth title at Middleweight but also claiming the WBO NABO Super Middleweight title before finally moving to Light Heavyweight in 2006. It was at 175lbs that the athletically built Dawson really excelled and in early 2007 he claimed the first world title of his professional career as he out pointed the then unbeaten Tomaz Adamek for the WBC world title.

As the WBC champion Dawson made 3 title defenses with the highlight of them being a controversial decision win over veteran Glen Johnson. Instead of facing his mandatory challenger Dawson gave up his WBC title to instead face the IBF champion Antonio Tarver. Against Tarver we saw Dawson looking sensational as he claimed his second professional title and further secured his claim as one of the elite fighters at 175lbs. It seemed as if Dawson was on his way to becoming a major name in the sport but sadly he wasted the following year by rematching both Tarver and Johnson as his career started to stand still. What made those bouts worse for Dawson was that he merely looked to be going through the motions and doing just enough to bag enough rounds to win.

Things went from bad to worse for Dawson as he suffered his first (and so far only) professional loss just over 2 years ago losing to the Canadian based Haitian Jean Pascal. Sadly Dawson again attempted to do just enough to steal rounds, this time however it failed and after a clash of heads in round 11 left Dawson with a nasty gash the bout was taken to the cards early with the decision favouring Pascal. It was hoped by many that the loss to Pascal would ignite the fire under Dawson however just 9 months later on Dawson's return he again looked like a fighter who didn't really want to fight.

Dawson eventually re-claimed the WBC Light Heavyweight by defeating the legendary Bernard Hopkins (who had dethroned Pascal) on the second of trying after their first bout ended in a bizarre no contest.

In terms of style Dawson is a true frustration to watch. He's quick, he's powerful, he moves very well and throws some of the most wonderful combinations seen in the higher weights sadly however he's incredibly lazy in the ring and often fights down to his opponents level rather than attempting to impose himself on the fight and dominate his opponent with his strengths. If  a trainer to could force Dawson to listen to him and follow instructions then Dawson has the potential to be something very special. As well a being naturally blessed with amazing speed Dawson is also blessed with a huge wingspan and a 76" reach, something that he can, when he's switched on, use amazingly well with his straight shots, though again it's a case of actually getting him to throw punches.

Whilst Dawson has made his name at Light Heavyweight and will be coming down, Andre Ward has made his reputation in the Super Middleweight division where he stands as the divisions kingpin. Not only is Ward the WBA "super" and WBC champion at 168lbs but he was also the winner of the inaugural "Super 6 Boxing Classic", a competition that saw him defeating Carl Froch, Arthur Abraham and Mikkel Kessler.

Like Dawson, Ward first made his name in the amateur ranks, however as an Amateur Ward was much, much more decorated. Not only did he run up a record of 114-5, he was also undefeated in several years, a multi-time national champion and most notably an Olympic Gold Medal winner.

Having won Gold at the Athens Olympics Ward soon turned professional and debuted at the end of 2004 by fighting as a Middleweight. Over the first few years of his career Ward slowly climbed the rankings, often defeating more experienced professionals with out too much trouble, though he did struggle with journeyman Darnell Boone.

Since 2009 Ward has become a fixture at the top of the Super Middleweight division having scored notable wins over Edison Miranda, Mikkel Kessler, Allan Green, Sakio Bika, Arthur Abraham (who won the WBO Super Middleweight title just a few weeks ago) and Carl Froch. It was the win over Kessler, in November 2009 that really put Ward on the boxing map as he out fought, out slicked and thoroughly out-boxed the highly regarded Dane to claim the WBA "super" title. The win over Carl Froch in December 2011 saw Ward then adding the WBC title to his collection and further proving he was the top dog.

Ward is a very skilled operator who despite his poor KO record is incredibly strong, very quick (with his hands, feet and body movement), slippery both inside and outside and has an uncanny knack of rarely being caught clean. At distance his jab is excellent and disrupts the rhythm opponents whilst up close Ward works hard to both the body and head of opponents whilst neutralising opponents excellently. Whilst he's a hugely gifted boxer he can be rather dull to watch due to many of his bouts becoming mauls, however he does have the ability to dominate fights with ease.

Going into the fight the biggest question is how will the weight effect Dawson? He's looked massive at Light Heavyweight and many feel he has had to drain himself to make 175lbs the extra 7lbs may make a huge difference to Dawson's durability and stamina. If he can make the weight with out damaging himself he could be a serious threat with his speed and combinations. If he can't make the weight with out issues he could find himself in an incredibly difficult bout.

For Dawson to win he needs to hope that not only he can cope with the lower weight but that he get up for this fight and actually keep up a solid pace. His usual style of working in short bursts with his electric hand speed simply won't work here as Ward will be on him. Dawson will not only need to be busier than usual but will also have to use his reach advantage (around 5") to try and neutralise Ward's excellent jab and keep him at range. If (and that' a big "if") he can put his foot on the gas for more than 45 seconds a round and use his jab he could surprise Ward and make this a competitive bout. If however the weight issue effects Dawson's stamina negatively this could be a long and hard night for him.

For Ward the key is to get inside the reach of Dawson and whilst he may have a very good jab himself, Wards reach disadvantage will be very noticeable. Thankfully for Ward he often finds a way to slip punches as he tries to get inside an opponent and bully them up close where he is sensational. When he gets inside of Dawson the inside work will seriously pay dividends and I imagine Ward will work the body well up close which should not only test the stamina of Dawson but also help slow the fast hands of the taller man.

If Dawson can stay active with his jab and keep Ward at range this could be a very even bout, however I can't help but think that Ward, with his excellent defense and work up close will do enough secure a decision. This could be the toughest bout of Ward's career if (and only if) Dawson can actually let his hands go with some regularity, though it's much more likely that Dawson will do little more than flurry once or twice a round whilst Ward smothers and lands up close in an unexciting 12 maul.

Prediction-Ward by decision in a rather mundane affair that has promise but never really springs to life.

For gamblers-
Ward is the a favourite at around 4/11 whilst Dawson is priced as high as 3/1.

Monday 3 September 2012

Vitali Klitschko v Manuel Charr

Despite the Heavyweight division being much maligned by both the fans of the actual sport and those that still think Mike Tyson is the champion (trust me there is some of those folk still out there) it's genuinely accepted that the Ukrainian Klitschko Brothers are the #1 and #2 at the weight. This weekend sees the older of the Klitschko's, Vitali (44-2, 40) defending his WBC Heavyweight title against unbeaten challenger Manuel Charr (21-0, 11) in Moscow.

The challenger, significantly the younger man at "just" 27 years old, is widely seen to be a sacrificial lamb as the 41 year old Vitali looks to top off his long and illustrious career with yet another win, however does the man known as "The Diamond Boy" have a chance of a giant upset as age catches up with the champion?

Born in Syria though now based in Germany Charr has been quietly making his name since turning professional in 2005. Though without any spectacular wins to date he has been scoring  what could be described "decent" wins over the likes of Gbenga Oloukun (at the time 16-0, 10), Owen Beck (a former world title challenger), Danny Williams (another former title challenger) and Taras Bidenko (who gave the gigantic Nikolay Valuev a competitive bout). Though admittedly the likes of Williams and Beck were several years removed from their best.

Although Charr is unbeaten he hasn't had been fighting against any fellow contenders instead picking off fighters who are either journeymen or noticeably beyond their best years. One of those journeymen, American Zack Page, gave Charr all he could handle at the end of 2010 and Charr should feel fortunate to have come away from that bout with a majority decision as he was pushed close to his first professional loss. Whilst the stoppage of British veteran Danny Williams was questionable at best.

At around 6'3" Charr will be dwarfed in the ring and at around 240-250lbs he's not a fighter in great shape often looking rather doughy. His work rate is far from spectacular and his defense is sloppy at best with a lot of his own attacking work looking more like slaps than real punches however he's a fighter who appears to be confident having already said he will "destroy" Vitali Klitschko and David Haye. In fact Charr has to take credit for having serious balls having walked up to David Haye and challenged him at the press conference after Haye had defeated Dereck Chisora. Testicular fortitude aside Charr appears to have little else going for him.

At 41 years old Vitali Klitschko is significantly older than his challenger and with 46 professional bouts on his record he also has much more experience. However this experience has come at a price and through his illustrious career he has picked up various injuries including a torn rotator cuff, torn ligaments and a badly damaged knee (which forced an early retirement from the sport in 2005 before making a comeback several years later).

Klitschko's professional career started way back in 1996 and has seen him becoming a 3-time champion at Heavyweight having held the WBO title (1999-2000) and the WBC title (2004-2005, 2008-) and scoring notable victories over Herbie Hide, Larry Donald, Corrie Sanders, Samuel Peter, Juan Carlos Gomez, Shannon Briggs, Odlanier Solis, Chris Arreola, T omasz Adamek and most recently Dereck Chisora. However he has had set backs including not only his short lived retirement but also losses to Chris Byrd (due to the aforementioned torn rotator cuff) and Lennox Lewis (due to serious cuts). As well as the set backs he hasn't really been accepted by certain quarters of the boxing community who have failed to accept him as a high quality operator in the ring.

Standing at a lofty 6'7" and coming in to the ring in the region of 240-250 Klitschko has an excellent build which is athletic and rangy. It's the range and size of Klitschko that has caused so many opponents real issues in the past with his busy and heavy jab controlling the range and pace of a fight. Not only is Klitschko awkward due to his reach but also his unorthodox style which sees him throwing punches from unusual angles whilst avoid shots with upper body movements.

Charr is the clear under-dog (priced as high as 24/1 by one Sportsbook) and with good reason. Not only is he taking a massive step up to face Klitschko but he has shown nothing that Klitschko will fear. He's not shown to be capable of doing anything outstanding and he's looked to just be very average in an era of poor Heavyweight challengers. For Charr to win he would quite frankly need a miracle.

For Klitschko (best priced at 1/33) this looks like a routine title defense against a poor challenger. In fact without being facetious I honestly feel Klitschko could win this with an arm tied behind his back. Expect to see the Ukrainian's jab breaking not only the defense of the challenger (with an alarming regularity) but also his will before Charr gets stopped in the latter half of the bout (if he makes it that far). Don't be surprised however to see Charr starting very brightly....until he gets hit and goes progressively into his shell before taking a beating and wilting.

Prediction: Klitschko by T/KO 8 (priced at around 9/1)

Saturday 1 September 2012

Felix Sturm v Daniel Geale

Unification fights seem to becoming rarer and rarer in today's boxing world and when they happen they genuinely deserve to have some attention. With that in mind I'm personally very excited about the up coming Middleweight unification bout between long term WBA "Super" champion Felix Sturm (37-2-2, 16) and the IBF champion, Australian Daniel Geale (27-1, 15).

Firstly we'll look at Sturm who at 33 years old is the older fighter though is far from a shot fighter going on the evidence of his last bout, a TKO9 over Sebastian Zbik. Sturm started his professional career back in 2001 and with in 3 years he had claimed the WBO Middleweight title thanks to a controversial victory over Argentinian Hector Javier Velazco. Sturn had been a very late replacement for former champion Bert Schenk (who was forced to pull out due to illness) taking the fight with just a couple of days notice though was impressive on in his first major professional bout.

After scoring a clear points victory over Ruben Varon in his only defense, Sturm lost his title, controversially, to American superstar Oscar De La Hoya just 9 months after winning it. Despite this loss Sturm had proven he could hang with top level fighters and he took little time climbing his way back to the top of the rankings, this time viewing the WBA title as the one he wanted. A little over a year after losing to De La Hoya, Sturm had claimed the mandatory position for the WBA Middleweight title.

With William Joppy (the WBA "regular" champion) losing against Bernard Hopkins (the WBA "Super" champion) the WBA vacated their regular title which was later won by Maselino Masoe who surprisingly stopped Evans Ashira (who would later go on to take Joe Calzaghe the distance). Masoe's reign was very short lived with Sturm defeating him in his only defence to become a 2-time world champion.

Sturm would surprisingly lose in his first defense of his WBA title as he was stopped in round 10 against Spanish veteran Javier Castillejo, a former WBC Light Middleweight champion. In a rematch just 9 months later Sturm would avenge his defeat and reclaim the WBA title by out pointing Castillejo in a hugely disputed bout that Spaniard's team were very unhappy about.

Since reclaiming the title from Castillejo back in April 2007 Sturm has amassed an incredible 12 title defenses (including 10 wins and  draws). Included in those defences were Noe Gonzalez Alcoba (UD12), Randy Griffin (D12 and UD12), Jamie Pittman (TKO7), Sebastian Sylvester (UD12), Koji Sato (TKO7), Khoren Gevor (UD12), Giovanni Lorenzo (UD12), Ronald Hearns (TKO7), Matthew Macklin (SD12-in a hugely controversial bout), Martin Murray (D12) and Sebastian Zbik (TKO7), with the title being upgraded to the "Super" title after the victory over Gevor.

As well as being a long reigning champion of over 5 years Sturm is best known in the ring for his hard, accurate and razor sharp jab, a punch that he often dominates opponents with. Whilst not being a hugely powerful fighter Sturm's jab is hurtful and can bust up fighters with it's alarming cleanness. Outside of the jab however Sturm is very average with solid but unspectacular uppercuts and appears to like to work at his own pace preferring quality of work rather than quantity.

Unlike Sturm, Australian Geale, aged 31, is a relatively new champion having claimed the IBF title just last year as he out pointed former Sturm opponent Sebastian Sylvester by split decision to end Sylvester's controversial 18 month reign. This was a solid rise to the top for Geale who only started his own professional career in 2004.

Geale, who debuted in October 2004 started his career with 21 straight wins, including impressive victories over fellow Australian Daniel Dawson and the teak tough Serbian Geard Ajetovic, suffered his first (and only) professional loss in 2009 against Anthony Mundine. Mudine, a former 2-time world champion at Super Middleweight, controversially out pointed Geale by split decision in one of the most controversial bouts in Australian boxing in modern times.

Since controversially losing to Mundine in 2009 Geale has been on an excellent run of results with 6 straight victories including 3 in world title bouts. Before claiming the IBF world title Geale had to earn his mandatory position, to do this he would have to get past the experienced Russian Roman Karmazin. Karmazin, a former IBF Light Middleweight champion had taken the then reigning IBF Middleweight champion Sebastian Sylvester to a controversial draw (with many feeling Karmazin was robbed). Geale was hugely impressive in not only beating Karmazin but becoming just the second man to stop the Russian in 47 bouts.

Having earned his shot at the title Geale traveled to Germany to face Sylvester as the slight under-dog despite many expecting Geale to need to score a KO to win. Geale set off at a lightning quick pace completely outworking the then champion to take a narrow split decision. Whilst Sylvester's shots seemed to be the much harder, cleaner blows he was just simply out worked in too many rounds to deny the Australian.

Since winning the title Geale has made two defences out pointing the thoroughly outclassing both Nigerian Eromosele Albert and Ghanian Osumanu Adama to take unanimous decision wins in both defenses.

So now to this fight. On paper the bout appears to be a lot like Geale's first foray to Germany (where he beat Sylvester) in that he will go in as the under-dog with many people suspecting that he will be beaten if it goes to the cards, as he faces an accurate puncher who whilst not particularly active is very accurate. Also, like his first foray into the country Geale's opponent comes into the bout on the back of a clear victory following a draw (Sylvester drew with Karmazin before widely out pointing Mahir Oral whilst Sturm draw with Martin Murray before stopping Sebastian Zbik). However we also have plenty of differences, this time Geale isn't the taller man (having had a 2.5" height advantage over Sylvester he is now the smaller man by 1.5") and he's also not having a new experience of having to travel to a foreign country for the first time in his career.

From what we've seen of Sturm in recent years, most notably the Macklin fight, Sturm can easily be outworked especially at close range and whilst he's not so easy to hurt attacking his body will slow him down noticeably. However if you allow him to get into a rhythm with his jab, as he did against Zbik you can be in for a long painful night at a distance he controls. Geale will need to find a way to stay away from the jab whilst getting inside and working the body of the German, if he can do this then he'll have a lot of success.

From Sturm's point of view he'll be wanting to watch Geale's fight with Sylvester as well as his own bout with Macklin as they were surprisingly similar in that the challenger attacked, relentlessly through out the bout. Whilst Macklin hits harder than Geale it's fair to say the Aussie is slightly cleverer with his work and takes careful breathers outside of range. Whilst Sturm could look to strike when Geale is at range he may have better success striking as Geale comes in and out of range. Sylvester had his best successes when he nailed Geale up close with shots as Geale was letting his hands go and with Sturm being a much better boxer than Sylvester it's fair to say he could have similar successes.

Whilst I think Sturm could certainly hurt Geale, especially late when Geale will be tired from his high out put, I do, just, favour Sturm by decision. The fact Sturm is fighting at home in Germany is the deciding factor for me. Whilst Geale could certainly outwork Sturm, if he can avoid Sturm's jab and build on Macklin's game plan I just don't see him getting the decision even if he deserves it. Despite clearly defeating Sylvester last year one judge somehow saw the bout 118-110 to Sylvester.

Prediction-Sturm by decision.