Friday 29 March 2013

Mario Rodriguez v Katsunari Takayama

After scoring arguably the biggest upset of last year Mexican Mario Rodriguez (15-6-4, 11) makes the first  defense of the IBF Minimumweight title he annexed from South African Nkosinathi Joyi as he faces former Joyi rival Katsunari Takayama (24-6-0-1, 10). This bout will be Takayama's first bout in Mexico and he remarkably enters 1-4-0-1 in the last 4 years!

Although Rodriguez's record is scratchy to say the best the 24 year old "Dragoncito" has been a fighter who has had to sink or swim from an early age. He debuted at 17 years old and started his career 10-6-4 with losses to Jose Alfredo Rodriguez and Donnie Nietes and a draw with Pedro Guevara amongst others. Not bad opponents for a young fighter.

In more recent bouts however Rodriguez has been defeating solid and accomplished professionals such as Manuel Jimenez, Karluis Diaz, Gilberto Keb Baas, Armando Vazquez and of course Joyi in a genuinely impressive streak. He hasn't just been beating his opponents he's been stopping them as well with only Jimenez surviving the distance from that impressive series of opponents.

Rodriguez isn't the most skilled but he's a very tough fighter who hasn't been stopped since losing his debut via 2nd round TKO to Geovanny Lopez (who Rodriguez beat in a rematch) and he relies on his toughness, his power and his work rate to over-come opponents. He's a fighter who if given a chance to have a tear up would likely come out on top.

Although Takayama is going through the worst run of his career (as mentioned above he's won just 1 of his last 6) the 29 year old is a proven force at the top level in the division. He's not only a former WBC and WBA interim champion but he's also a fighter who has faced a relative who's who including Isaac Bustos, Eagle Den Junlaphan. Carlos Melo, Yutaka Niida, Roman Gonzalez,     Tshepo Lefele and Joyi (twice). As well as fighting that high level of competition he has also been unfortunate in some of his losses, most notably a split decision loss to Mateo Handig last time out and the loss to Niida.

Takayama is, like Rodriguez, a tough fighter (as he showed repeatedly against Gonzalez) and he's also a fighter with a solid work rate though unfortunately he seems to lack power and can be dragged in to a war (as he was with Gonzalez). If Takayama goes to Mexico with a point to prove I think he'll lose a decision though sadly if he chooses to box he may be viewed as negative and may end up losing anyway, it really is a toughy for the Japanese veteran.

Rodriguez isn't as bad as his record indicated and for me this would be a pretty even fight on neutral territory though in Mexico it's hard to imagine Rodriguez losing.

Prediction-Rodriguez by UD in a thoroughly enjoyable bout.

Gennady Golovkin v Nobuhiro Ishida

Unbeaten Kazakh Gennady Golovkin (25-0, 22) will look for his second win this year as he puts his WBA and IBO Middleweight titles on the line against the upset minded Japanese fighter Nobuhiro Ishida (24-8-2, 9). On paper the bout looks like a complete mismatch though many said the same before Ishida shocked the then unbeaten James Kirkland a little over 2 years ago. Going in to that bout Kirkland, like Golovkin now, was season as a monster puncher who could destroy anyone if he landed cleanly.

The 37 year old Ishida goes in to this bout as the big under-dog, this is partly based on him and partly based on Golovkin, though he is a very under-rated fighter on his own merits. Ishida not only has over 12 years of professional experience under his belt with over 260 rounds but he also has experience fighting around the world. Sure he started his career in his native Japan but he has, in recent years, also fought in the USA, Mexico and Russia as he's become a bit of a road warrior.

Ishida's experience may be an advantage but his major advantage is in his size. At 6'1" and with a 72" reach some have described Ishida as "the Japanese Tommy Hearns", because like Hearns he's a bit of a physical freak in terms of height and reach (although he lacks Tommy's insane power). Although he lacks the thunderous power of Hearns he has managed to show speed, an impressive jab and maybe most notably he's shown heart.

In his 2 most recent losses (unanimous decisions to Paul Williams and Dmitry Pirog) Ishida was thoroughly beaten but in neither bout did he ever look like folding, in fact he looked like he could take the punishment pretty much none stop showing toughness and real guts, something he will need here.

At 30 years old Golovkin is a fighter who appears to have finally started getting some traction in his professional career after some seriously frustrating issues for both him and fans. In fact it's fair to say that Golovkin was, for several years part of the "who needs him club?" having proven himself to be a monster in the amateurs (where he beat a genuine who's who).

Since turning professional back in 2006 Golovkin has been a fighter that the hardcore fans have supported whilst almost begging for him to get bigger fights, something that has started to happen thanks to fan support and HBO in America (who have bankrolled his last 2 bouts). Whilst some may thank HBO for those fights it's more a case of HBO knowing that in Golovkin they have a very attractive product who is fun to watch, powerful, skilled and will pretty much fight anyone.

Sure Golovkin isn't impossible to catch (he does appear to be a very tough fighter though), but every shot he lands seems to have dynamite behind it. His jabs seem to look like straights, his hooks and uppercuts look like shot gun blasts and best of all he seems to do it whilst always perfectly balanced, a rare trait that shows some special skill that so few have.

Thanks to HBO Golovkin has been shown twice in the US destroying Grzegorz Proksa and more recently defeating Gabriel Rosado to continue a 12 fight stoppage run that he'll be hoping to extend to 13 fights here.

Whilst Ishida has notable size advantage (4" in height) oddly Golovkin has the longer reach and could neutralise the jab of Ishida. Despite this I imagine we'll see Golovkin starting as a pressure fighter taking the jabs of Ishida mostly on the guard whilst walking him down and stalking before unloading in the corner. Whilst Ishida is tough I do imagine that Golovkin's pressure and power will start to take the toll and Ishid will eventually fold after showing a remarkable amount of heart.

Prediction- Golovkin TKO8

Thursday 28 March 2013

Brandon Rios v Mike Alvarado II

Last year boxing fans got a real treat when the Americans Brandon Rios (31-0-1, 23) and Mike Alvarado (33-1, 23) waged a thoroughly enjoyable war on each other in a none title bout. This coming weekend the two step in to the ring together again with the interim WBO Light Welterweight title on the line in what promises a lot considering their first fight.

Last time out Alvarado started very well before eventually being dragged more and more in to a war that eventually saw him getting stopped in the 7th round by a determined Rios who was forced to take hard shots himself. Although last time out the bout played chief support to Nonito Donaire's bout with Toshiaki Nishioka this time the bout is the main event and after their first meeting the reason si obvious-these two are fun to watch.

Of the two men Brandon Rios goes in to this bout as the notable favourite (3/10) and this is partly due to his victory last time out and also partly due to his reputation. Rios has, over the past 3 years, been on a real tear beating the likes of Jorge Luis Theron, Anthony Peterson, Miguel Acosta, Urbano Antillon, John Murray, Richar Abril (though this one was hugely controversial) and of course Alvarado. He has looked unstoppable with only Abril seeing the final bell (in a bout that Rios was very lucky to win) and has shown power, aggression, work rate and sheer toughness. In fact it's fair to say that Rios has shown nothing less than a sheer bloody mindedness to win come hell or high water.

The unbeaten Rios may not be the most skilled or the most technical in the ring but he's one of the toughest and has one of the biggest hearts. He doesn't seem to know when he's lost, he doesn't seem to know how to take a backwards step and probably most impressively, he knows how to cut the ring off and get his offensive work in (even if he does take a shot or two in return).

Like Rios, Alvarado has proven himself to be a genuine warrior. Sure he was stopped last time out against Rios though had already proven his balls in an enthralling war with Breidis Prescott (who fights on the undercard) which he won by stopping Prescott in the tenth despite being very marked up. Also like Rios, Alvarado isn't the smartest of boxers, though he is probably more technically sound than Rios he's also no Willie Pep.

Alvarado is a warrior through and through he's tough and this time around (more so than last time) he's got a point to prove. He started well against Rios last time and seemed to look the much better boxer, though was unfortunately dragged into a fight, hurt then stopped. If (and it's a big if) Alvarado can stick to his boxing and tag Rios whilst moving laterally (like he did in several rounds last time out) he could manage to find himself taking a decision. Sadly for Alvarado boxing against Rios can be harder than it seems and for those who saw Rios v Acosta they may know just how good Rios is at cutting off the corners (which admittedly Acosta seemed to like fighting out of).

Although Alvarado for me personally is over-priced (18/5) I do favour Rios on account of the fact we know he can hurt Alvarado. Although it's obvious that Rios' career at the top isn't going to be a long one (he simply takes too many shots for that) I don't think he'll suddenly get old here. Alvarado will stick to his boxer more this time, though I think eventually he gets either dropped (perhaps choosing to take a knee) an loses by close decision or stopped standing as Rios proves to be an offensive machine.

Prediction-Rios by TKO11

Friday 22 March 2013

Arthur Abraham v Robert Stieglitz II

WBO Super Middleweight champion Arthur Abraham (36-3, 28) will look to defend his title for the first time as he meets the man he beat last year for the belt, Robert Stieglitz (43-3, 24) in a rematch of one of last years FOTY contenders.

Last time the two men met we saw Abraham claiming a hot fought decision over Stieglitz in a bout that saw Abraham's power and defense just do enough to out point the busier but less powerful Stieglitz, who was then the defending champion. Since then however both men have fought a single bout scoring stoppage victories over limited opposition.

The men proved last time out that although they aren't necessarily the most fun to watch men in the sport they could put on a fantastic bout with each other. I have a feeling that we will see the same sort of thing here as Stieglitz once again pushes the action with his offensive work rate and whilst it's not likely to be clean it will be relentless whilst Abraham looks for his big, eye catching counters.

Neither man has changed a great deal since their first bout. Abraham still looks like he's unsettled at Super Middleweight and he still lacks the dynamite he showed at Middleweight. Stieglitz is still an unspectacular fighter who works incredibly hard with his limited skill set.

It's hard, in a rematch, to go against the original winner and I feel this will be the case again here with Abraham again pushed hard but just having the thudding force to just claim the decision.

Prediction-Abraham by decision

Friday 15 March 2013

Roberto Vasquez v John Mark Apolinario II

Panamanian Roberto Vasquez (32-5-1, 22) and Filipino John Mark Apolinaro (17-2-2, 4) meet for the second time in a little over 4 months after fighting to a draw in November 2012. Like in their first fight the men will be battling for the WBA "interim" Bantamweight title though unlike last time, they will be fighting in Vasquez's native Panama as opposed to the more neutral Argentina (where their first fight was).

Going in to their first bout I felt Vasquez would simply have too much experience and skill for the untested Apolinario who in all honesty had never fought at Vasquez's level before. In fact Apolinario's losses to Marvin Tampus and Jessie Albaracin were pretty damning results in my eyes, despite this however Apolinario put on the performance of his life and held Vasquez in a hard fought bout.

This time I think Vasquez will know what to expect from the young Filipino and, roared on by the Panamanian fans I think he'll raise his game. Whilst Apolinario fought his best fight last time I don't think Vazquez did and although Apolinaio is the naturally bigger man the experience edge and home advantage makes it hard not to favour Vasquez again this time around.

Thursday 14 March 2013

John Riel Casimero v Luis Alberto Rios

The IBF Light Flyweight champion John Riel Casimero (17-2, 10) has had a very interesting career so far and despite only being 23 he has probably has more stories than many seasoned veterans. He's fought around the world, "caused" a riot by beating a controversial Argentinian and become a genuinely solid (though criminally under-rated) fighter. This weekend sees Casimero on the road again as he fights for the first time in Panama defending his title against the once beaten Luis Alberto Rios (18-1-1, 13).

Casimero debuted way back in 2007 as a fresh faced 17 year old and in a little over a year he had already claimed a notable title winning the Philippines Boxing Federation Flyweight title and upsetting the experienced Rodel Quilaton. That was just Casimero's 10th professional bout. Just months later Casimero would capture the WBO Asia Pacific Light Flyweight title title and prove himself to be one of the most exciting teenagers in the sport.

Aged just 19 Casimero left his native Philippines for the first time and traveled to Nicaragua to fight seasoned Colombian Cesar Canchila (who had been the first man to beat Giovanni Segura just 17 months earlier) in a bout for the interim WBO Light Flyweight title. Many had written off the relatively unknown Casimero who shocked many fan of the lower divisions by stopping Canchila in 11 rounds to take the title back home. Sadly Casimero's title reign was short lived as he would the belt in his next bout via split decision to Mexican Ramon Garcia Hirales.

Casimero's road journey continued in his next bout as he traveled to South Africa and faced the genuinely excellent Moruti Mthalane in an IBF Flyweight title bout. Mthalane was too big, too talented and too strong for the brave Casimero who was stopped in the fifth round.

After 3 fights away from home Casimero swiftly dispatched with Roemart Sentillas in the Philippines before arguably scoring his biggest win in Argentina where he stopped the very unlikable Luis Alberto Lazarte for the interim IBF Light Flyweight title. Sadly that bout is better remembered for the disgusting scenes that followed the bout rather than the victory for Casimero, who was later pelted with items as the crowd almost tried to kill him in one of the most horrific scenes seen in boxing in the past decade.

Since claiming the IBF Light Flyweight title Casimero has made a solitary defense of the belt, defeating Pedro Guevara in Mexico by split decision (in a bout that saw Guevara on the canvas numerous times with them often being ruled as "slips").

In terms of Casimero in the ring he's fearless, he's fast, accurate and a very under-rated fighter. I wouldn't put him in with Roman Gonzalez or Kazuto Ioka but against anyone else in the division he would at very least hold his own. He's only really been beaten once and that was by Mthalane who I'm a huge admirer off and in that bout everything was against Casimero, including weight and the crowd (and it showed as he was honesty swatted around by Mthalane). At Light Flyweight he's a genuine nightmare for anyone and he keeps his power late having stopped both Canchila (TKO11) and Lazarte (TKO10) late.

Going into this bout relatively little is known of Luis Alberto Rios. The 23 year old Panamanian challenger has, like Casimero, been a professional since 2007 and been in pretty much the same number of fights, though all of his have been at home in fact almost all of them have taken place in Panama City.

Despite fighting just in Panama Rios has faced several better known fighters. These have seen him scoring victories over Edwin Diaz, Walter Tello (who faces Alberto Rossel in Peru also this weekend), local journeyman Carlos Melo, former world title contender Luis Carrillo and most recently Felipe Salguero, also a world title contender. What is notable from those fights is that Rios has a solid punch on him having taken out Salguero (TKO11), Carillo (TKO5), Tello (TKO4).

It's not all good news for Rios though. He has been stopped himself (against  Luis Carrillo) and was held to a draw with Carlos Melo in a rematch. He was dropped last time out against Salguero and if I'm being honest Salguero is no Casimero and this is what swings me in to feeling that Casimero should be able to hurt and stop Rios.

Prediction-Casimero TKO9

Timothy Bradley v Ruslan Provodnikov

This weekend American WBO Welterweight champion Timothy Bradley (29-0-0-1, 12) will look to make the first defense of his title as he faces the exciting to watch but limited Ruslan Provodnikov (22-1, 15). This will in fact be the first time either man has fought since June 2012, the month that Bradley claimed a controversial decision over Manny Pacquiao and Provodnikov beat Jose Reynoso in 2 rounds.

Although Bradley's result over Pacquiao was highly criticised the unbeaten "Desert Storm" is a genuine top 10 pound-for-pound fighter on his own merit. Aged 29 the tenacious California native has claimed the WBO Light Welterweight title, the WBC Light Welterweight title (twice)and the WBO Welterweight title. As well as hit title collection he has scored notable wins over Miguel Vazquez, Junior Witter, Kendall Holt, Lamont Peterson, Devon Alexander, Joel Casamayor and of course Pacquiao. A genuine who's who if we're being honest.

In terms of style Bradley is, as mentioned above, tenacious. He looks like he's been carved out of stone and is both physically and mentally strong. He's a fighter who does a number of very under-rated things, in fact his ability to slip punches, as he showed against Pacquiao (who landed a lot less than Jim Lampley thought) is almost forgotten. He likes to come forward and be in an opponents face (often causing head clashes) whilst throwing accurate and moderately fast punches for 12 rounds whilst using his feet well to move in and out of range as well as around an opponent. His biggest real issue is his relative lack of power when compared to the rest of his skill set. It's not as if Bradley fights like Miguel Vazquez using his jab and moving constantly, but instead he often gets in to the trenches and goes for it.

Since first fighting at the world level back in 2008 Bradley only has a solitary TKO on his record and that was over a faded Joel Casamayor in 2011. Despite this he has been able to drop fighters on a regular basis including Witter, Edner Cherry, Peterson and Casamayor though was only able to finish off Casamayor.

Whilst Bradley is a proven world class fighter Provodnikov has yet to fight at this level. In fact Provodnikov has so far been making his name on ESPN Friday Night Fights where he has proven to be a popular, though somewhat limited, warrior. He's got a reputation as being tough as old boots, like Bradley and an aggressively minded fighter (also like Bradley) but lacing finesse in the ring and instead relying on his brute strength and work rate to try and over come opponents.

Often Provodnikov has managed to hide his deficiencies thanks to the weak level of opponents he has been facing including the shell of Emmanuel Augustus, a very shop worn DeMarcus Corley and an old Javier Jauregui. In his only loss (which some feel he should have won) Provodniov was taken 12 rounds by the teak tough  Mauricio Herrera who has since proven to be a very credible "B" level fighter with hard fought decision losses to Mike Alvarado and Karim Mayfield as well as a victory over Mike Dallas Jr.

Although Provodnikov is very strong and very tough he has the facial features that mark up very easily and if, as I expect, he decides to fight Bradley head on, he could end up being very marked up very early on. Bradley's head has a knack of cutting others and with the punches also flying I think Provodnikov will end up being warrior who gets stopped against his wishes despite his face being a mess.

Prediction-Bradley TKO10

Wednesday 13 March 2013

Alberto Rossel v Walter Tello

Peruvian fighter Alberto Rossel (29-8-0-1, 13) will attempt to defend his WBA interim Light Flyweight title for the second time this coming weekend as he faces Panamanian Walter Tello (18-6, 7) in what promising to be a major event in the champion's homeland, despite it not being a country known for it's boxing.

The 35 year old Rossel may not be a name on the lips of every boxing fan however in his homeland he's a legend, he's not only the first male Peruvian to claim a world title of some sort but he's also the boxing icon of the country. He's been a classy fighter who has mixed with some of the best (including Ivan Calderon, Brian Viloria, Luis Alberto Lazarte, Vusi Malinga and Hugo Fidel Cazares) and finally reaps the rewards of his long and excellent career.

Rossel's been a professional since 1998 and although he's fought around the world (Peru, USA, Puerto Rico, Argentina, South Africa and Mexico) it's only been the last year or so that he's managed to make a name for himself thanks to victories over Jose Alfredo Rodriguez and Karluis Diaz as he claimed, then defended his world title.

In terms of fighting style Rossel is still a quick fighter for someone who is now 35 and although he's tiny he's got genuine ability to fight from the outside as well as the inside. Sadly through his career Rossel has found himself facing genuinely world level fighters who have simply had that level of exceptional talent rather than just good skills and he's come out the loser at the top level as a result.

At just 26 years old the Panamanian challenger is by far the younger man going in to this bout though he's not only less experienced but also less tested having only been in with 2 noteworthy in Manuel Vargas and Giovani Segura, both of whom convincingly beat him in Mexico in world title fights. This also reflected in the quality of Tello's victories which have been very limited and his only title victory was when he won the WBO Latino Minimumweight title back in 2008.

Tello is genuinely very limited and his confidence will not be high, despite a 3 fight winning streak  because he's 4-3 in his last 7 and 5-4 in his last 9, including 2 losses to fellow Panamanian Carlos Melo.

Although Tello has only been stopped twice (once bey Segura and once by Luis Alberto Rios, who fights this weekend against John Riel Casimero for the IBF Light Flyweight title) I wouldn't be shocked if the pressure of fighting in Peru sees him mentally wilting before being stopped late.

Prediction-Rossel to win by TKO11

Friday 8 March 2013

Juan Carlos Salgado v Argenis Mendez II

In what will probably turn out to be the fight of the weekend IBF Super Featherweight champion Juan Carlos Salgado (26-1-1-1, 16) will attempt to defend his belt against the highly ranked Argenis Mendez (20-2, 10) in a rematch of their brilliant 2011 bout which saw Salgado claiming a controversial unanimous decision in his homeland of Mexico.

The 28 year old Salgado burst on to the scene back in 2009 when he scored an upset of the year contender blasting out Jorge Linares in just 168 seconds to claim the WBA Super Featherweight title. Whilst his reign didn't last long, losing hit title to Takashi Uchiyama in just his first defense, he had proven his ability was at least near world class and had actually put on a solid effort against Uchiyama.

Since the loss to Uchiyama, Salgado has claimed the IBF title and gone 5-0-0-1 actually claiming the title when he first beat Mendez. Although he hasn't looked great as a champion, scraping a decision over Martin Honorio and seeing his bout with Miguel Beltran Jr called off early after a clash of heads he has managed to keep a hold of his title significantly longer than his first reign.

Salgado is a solid enough fighter, he's a hurtful puncher, he's a hard worker and whilst he's not the most polished he has solid skills. There is nothing that's going to blow you away about him and he can fight down to his opponents level (as he did with Honorio) though at his best he's probably in the top 5 of a weak Super Featherweight division with out too many questions. He's not invincible but only Mendez and Uchiyama have managed to drop him so far and both of those came in the 12th round.

Whilst the Super Featherweight division is weak Mendez is deservedly ranked highly and boxrec's rating of #5 is around what I'd have him personally. He's a fighter who is very highly skilled and a fighter who has had to prove his ability against some of the other top Super Featherweights to get his chance in title fights.

Prior to the first Salgado fight Mendez had to travel to South Africa in an IBF eliminator, whilst there he widely out pointed former title holder Cassius Baloyi. Although he lost in Mexico the first time he faced Salgado he gave him a very tough fight, dropping Salgado before controversially being out pointed. Since then he has beaten Honorio (for a second time) in an IBF eliminator.

Born in the Dominican Republic though based in the US, the 26 year old Mendez, trained by Brit Lee Beard was a very good amateur and certainly has the superior skills of the two men. As long as he shows those skills he should get the decision this time, especially with the bout now being in the US rather than Mexico. It should also be a fantastic fight just like the first.

Prediction-Mendez by UD

Thursday 7 March 2013

Luis de la Rosa v Merlito Sabillo

In this weekends most overlooked fight once beaten Colombian Luis De La Rosa (21-1-1, 12) faces undefeated Filipino Merlito Sabillo (20-0, 10) in a bout over the WBO interim Minimumweight title. Although neither fighter is a big name both are well regarded by those in the know with several feeling that either man is there or there abouts in the top 10.

With this fight being in Colombia home star Luis De La Rosa must start the bout as the favourite despite having suffered a loss. In fact now I've mentioned that loss it's worth noting that it came by split decision against the hugely talented Raul Garcia back in 2010, in a bout that saw Garcia dropped in early in the bout. Although not a massive puncher it's fair to say that De La Rosa hits hard as Garcia isn't a fighter who goes down easily.

Sadly aside from Garcia it's hard to see another recognisable fighter on De La Rosa's ledger as he's faced a long string of nobodies since turning professional in 2006, although he did claim the Colombian Light Flyweight title back in 2010.

As well as the loss, De La Rosa has suffered a draw, a 4 round draw early in his career to the then debuting Stiven Monterrosa who recently got flatten by Roman Gonzalez. Other than that he's been a winner in all of his bouts, though he was taken close by journeyman Alfonso De la Hoz (who's record is a who's who of South America boxing).

Whilst De La Rosa will be in front of his home fans the hardcore boxing fans may well favour the Filipino challenger to come away with the title belt. Sabillo, like De La Rosa, has generally faced limited opposition though he has scored noteworthy wins over the likes of  Jonathan Refugio to defend the OPBF Minimumweight title and Jetly Purisima for the Filipino title. Sure they aren't world names but they are decent enough fighters to test a fighters ability against.

From the footage of Sabillo he looks a very big guy for Minimumweight (he stands around 5'4") and looks very good fighting from a southpaw stance with a nice array of punches and a patient style despite often coming forward.

If the fight was in a neutral venue I'd have gone with Sabillo, though with it being in Colombia you need to favour the home fighter. Expect the fight to be close and go to a decision before the home fighter claims a close and probably controversial decision.

Prediction-De La Rosa via decision

Tavoris Cloud v Bernard Hopkins

By far the most notable bout of this coming weekend sees IBF Light Heavyweight champion Tavoris Cloud (24-0, 19) facing the legendary Bernard Hopkins (?-?) in what could end up being the final bout in the career of the iconic "Executioner".

The unbeaten Cloud, 31, is seen as an aggressive, fun to watch and hard hitting fighter. He started his career with an an impressive 18 stoppages in his first 19 fights before being taken 12 rounds in 4 of his last 5 bouts by experienced fighters such as former world champions Clinton Woods, Glen Johnson and Gabriel Campillo (as well as multi-time title contender Fulgencio Zuniga).

Although his power hasn't really carried up to the title level, he's still a very hurtful puncher and dropped Campillo several times on route to scoring a hugely controversial victory 13 months ago. Whilst he dropped Campillo it was also that fight that showed the limitations of Cloud who was regularly outscored by the moment and and hand speed of Campillo who appeared to win almost every round other than the first.

Whilst Cloud can be fun to watch he can appear crude and predictable at times. He's certainly determined and tough though his predictability is an issue, especially when he's facing clever fighters, like Hopkins is. However his energy, pure strength, and work rate does bail him out of being a little bit one paced at times. Despite his work rate there are question marks over his activity which has seen him fighting just  5 times since September 2008 and in fact since claiming his world title in August 2009 he has only defended it 4 times.

At 48 years old Bernard Hopkins is a fighter defying all logic. He's a fighter who is repeatedly proving that ring IQ is one of the most valuable assets a fighter can have and also something that allows you to carry on longer in the sport when the physical talents start to wane. Although saying that he can be beaten by fast fighters who manage to catch him or out work him whilst managing to maintain distance as Chad Dawson did last time out.

Hopkins may be best known for his outstanding Middleweight title reign between 1994 and 2005 however he has proven to be a very credible Light Heavyweight having beaten Jean Pascal and lost a controversial decision to Joe Calzaghe at the weight. However the victory over Pascal was almost 2 years ago and in 2 fights with Chad Dawson (a UD loss and a 2nd round Technical Draw) he was looking like an old man.

Sure Hopkins is a technical genius, he's made a career out of controlling the pace of the fight and the distance of the bout as well as using old skool tricks to get to his opponents, however he's the under-dog here fora reason. No one can carry on at the top level forever and Pascal showed in his first fight with Hopkins that the old man isn't as defensively sound as he once was. Cloud may not be a genius in the ring but he's bright enough to know that jumping on Hopkins early is the way to beat him.

The bookmakers have Cloud priced around 4/6 to win I'll be a little controversial and suggest that there is real value in Cloud by TKO/KO/DQ at around 5/1. The champion has a point to prove and the challenger is fighting both Cloud and father time.

Prediction-Cloud TKO6

Friday 1 March 2013

Donnie Nietes v Moises Funetes

Filipino Donnie Nietes (31-1-3, 17) has long been one of the most forgotten men in the sport of boxing. He's unbeaten in over 8 years, he's claimed WBO title at both Minimumweight and Flyweight and he's won his last 18 bouts, including 7 world title bouts and yet he's rarely, if ever mentioned online even when fans are talking about under-rated fighters. It's likely however that if Nietes successfully defends his WBO Light Flyweight title this coming Saturday against Mexican Moises Fuentes (16-1, 8) the boxing world may finally start to give him the attention he deserves.

Nietes, 30, has been a professional since 2003 and since then has only suffered a solitary (and highly debatable loss) to Angky Angkotta in Angkotta's native Indonesia. Not only did Angkotta struggle to gain a split decision in front of his own fans but he also failed to make the agreed weight for the fight, coming some 6 lbs over weight.

Since his loss to Angkotta, Nietes has been exceptional defeating the likes of  Pornsawan Porpramook, Manuel Vargas, Jesus Silvestre, Mario Rodriguez and Ramon Garcia Hirales using his excellent skills and speed. Despite these notable victories Nietes has remained almost an enigma to many boxing fans who either don't know about, or don't care about the activity in the lower divisions where fighters like Nietes ply their trade.

Whilst he may be overlooked by many fans that really doesn't take away from the huge level of talent Nietes has. He's not a hugely exciting fighter, due to his defensive skill and lack of power, though he is a hugely talented fighter who knows his way around the ring and know how to get rounds in the bag, even if he doesn't tend to dominate fights in the way that perhaps he should. His work in the pocket is beautiful as he ducks and dodges whilst landing hurtful counters and his boxing is hugely under-rated by many. Saying that however the fact he rarely manages to put opponents away is a worry especially when you consider he now has over 230 professional rounds under his belt.

If Neites is to be seen as a masterful boxer then on the other hand we have the wild and somewhat reckless looking slugger from Mexico in Moises Fuentes. Fuentes, who defended his WBO Minimumweight title last time out by stopping Ivan Calderon (who retired from boxing following the loss) is like Neites in only a handful of ways, the most notable is that he's often over looked by boxing fans despite forging a successful career.

Another similarity that Nietes and Fuentes share is that they have only been beaten once, in fact rather oddly their losses both came by controversial split decision to fighters who came in over weight with Fuentes losing to fellow Mexican Juan Hernandez back in 2011. Since the loss to Hernandez however Fuentes has really come in to his own scoring notable wins over Raul Garcia, Julio Cesar Felix and most famously Ivan Calderon in what are by far his biggest wins.

Whilst Fuentes has made his name at Minimumweight he's always been a huge guy at the 105lb limit and standing at 5'7" he's actually taller than Lucas Matthysse. His size advantage has made him very dangerous at Minimumweight though should also easily allow him to make the move up to Light Flyweight for this bout with Nietes. In fact Fuentes should look like the noticeably bigger man in the ring despite being the fighter who's coming up a division.

If you look at Fuentes' record you don't see that of a puncher, though he is a hurtful fighter and if you allow him to catch you, you will know about it. He's hurtful to both the head and body and whilst he can be made to look very clumsy he can also leave fighters wincing in agony at his clubbing shots. If he manages to catch Nietes getting too cute he could genuinely shake up the Filipino, though I think the champion knows how to take care of himself in such a way that he should be able to take a clear decision over Fuentes.

Prediction-Nietes decision.

Richard Abril v Sharif Bogere

Talented Cuban Richard Abril (17-3-1, 8) will face US based Ugandan Sharif Bogere (23-0, 15) this coming Saturday on Showtime in a bout for the WBA Lightweight title, a belt that many feel already belongs to Abril who was widely viewed to have been robbed last year when he lost a decision to Brandon Rios.

Abril, 30, is viewed as a very talented boxer who may lack power though makes up for it by using his skills to fight to his strengths whilst neutralising his opponents, something he did spectacularly well to Brandon Rios. Sadly for Abril it's his lossesmore than his skills that he is best known for, with reverses to Breidis Prescott, Henry Lundy and most famously Brandon Rios (all by split decision), despite this Abril does have a number of notable victories himself including decisions over Jose Reyes and Miguel Acosta.

At 5'11" Abril is a tall fighter for the Lightweight division, he's rangy, has a solid jab, ties up very well under pressure and knows how to use the ring excellently. Whilst he may not be a whole lot of fun to watch he's a fighter who know what it takes to score victories and how to bag rounds. Sadly it's the fact that he's not fun to watch that may have put some fans off watching him, although when he opens up, as he did against Acosta he can be very effective (though sadly that was a faded Acosta).

Whilst Abril is somewhat well known to boxing fans for his ability to shut down offenses it's fair to say his opponent Sharif Bogere is best known for his now legendary ring entrance where by he wears the dead skin of a lion. Despite the gimmicky costume Bogere, like Abril, is a very credible fighter at 135lbs and has also scored notable victories, though unlike Abril he's unbeaten.

At 24 years old Bogere is by far the younger man and despite having fought more times as a professional he's also the lesser experienced of the two thanks to Abril's long amateur background. That however doesn't mean that Bogere lacks experience himself having been a professional since 2008.

In his 23 fights to date Bogere has beaten some very credible opponents including Manuel Leyva, Raymundo Beltran and Sergio Rivera (an opponent that both men have beaten). Admittedly however the fight with Beltran was very close and had Bogere not been unbeaten going in there is every chance he would have been beaten that night.

Whilst Bogere has a plus 50% KO rate he's not a huge puncher. His shots are hurtful though aren't concussive, especially near world level, instead Bogere will need to use his speed to dart in and out from Abril whilst hoping not to get caught on the way in. Whilst he has speed, he will not only need be cautious of being caught by Abril's shots coming in but also burning out lat in the fight having only been 7 or more rounds twice in his career (as opposed to Abril who has been 7 rounds or more on 7 occasions).

It's with good reason that Abril starts as a 1/4 favourite, and it's those odds I like.

Prediction-Abril by Decision.