Thursday 13 December 2012

Leo Santa Cruz v Alberto Guevara

Exciting Mexican youngster Leo Santa Cruz (22-0-1, 13) looks to finish off an excellent year with his third, and likely final IBF Bantamweight title defense as he faces the unbeaten but untested Alberto Guevara (16-0, 6) live on CBS.

Santa Cruz is quickly becoming one of the new stars of Mexican boxing and appears to be one of the sports most fun to watch fighters regardless of nationality. In terms of his style he's a very tough but educated pressure fighter who brings not only an "in your face" attitude to the ring but also very under-rated boxing ability and a deceptively powerful punch which he uses to grind down opponents.

Although Santa Cruz's record doesn't show him to be a puncher he has developed a real mean streak with which he's been able to force numerous stoppages with in recent fights. In fact Santa Cruz has impressively stopped 11 of his last 12 bouts early with only teak tough South African Vusi Malinga seeing the final bell with others such as Eric Morel, Alejandro Hernandez and     Stephane Jamoye all being stopped in that run of 12 fights.

I'm expecting this to be the final time we see Santa Cruz at Bantamweight, a division he seems to be out growing and if he puts on an impressive showing it'll be great to see him mixing with some of the top guys at Super Bantamweight.

Whilst Santa Cruz is well known by boxing fans who have seen him becoming a bit of a star this year, it's fair to admit that Alberto Guevara is much more obscure. In fact it's worrying to discover that Guevara (at the time of writing) is unranked by the IBF and is ranked #47 by boxrec. Almost as interesting is that last time out Guervara apparently weighed in at a ridiculous 136lbs, and now needs to cut back down to 118.

Despite being unbeaten since he turned professional a little over 3 years ago Guevara is really, really untested having fought only 6 opponents with "winning records". Despite the level of his opponents it's fair to admit that Guevara has been stepping up in recent fights with arguably his best 3 wins coming in his last 3 bouts however they are all several levels below that of Santa Cruz.

In all honesty I can't see many fighters at 118lbs living with Santa Cruz's aggression, power and work rate. I think he'd be a nightmare for both Anselmo Moreno and Shinsuke Yamanaka (both fighters who I love) and in fact Santa Cruz could well be the division's #1 fighter as a result I can't Guevara upsetting him. I think Guevara will get ground down and quite early as well.

Prediction-Santa Cruz TKO5

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