Undeniably the biggest fight of this coming weekend is the WBC and Ring Magazine Middleweight title bout between unbeaten Mexican Julio Cesar Chavez Jr (46-0-1-1, 32) and the very highly regarded Argentinian Sergio Gabriel Martinez (49-2-2, 28). A bout many thought would never happen.
Going into this fight Sergio Gabriel Martinez, 37, is seen as one of the sports premier fighters. He is widely regarded as being a top 10 pound-for-pound boxer and has been on a roll in recent years with victories over a list of highly respectable opponents, often by knockout, proving that he hits harder than his record indicates.
Despite the fact Martinez is an old fighter in terms of "years" he's not a fighter who shows his age. Not only does Martinez's face look unmarked but his natural speed and timing are also spot on, not something we expect from a fighter in their late 30's. In fact whilst I'm on the subject of Martinez's speed, this is probably his best trait, he's got incredibly fast hands for a Middleweight and also great foot movement allowing him to set up counters with his speed and control the distance and tempo of a bout.
Despite still looking like a "young" fighter Martinez has been around since late 1990's having turned professional in 1997. He started his career 16-0-1 (6) before facing the first recognisable name on his record, Antonio Margarito. Margarito would show his superior experience and manage to wear down Martinez forcing a TKO in round 7 to inflict the first loss on Martinez. Since this loss however Martinez has honed his trade excellently, having spent several years fighting in Europe.
It wasn't until the late 00's that Martinez first started to really get any attention from the boxing community as he defeated Alex Bunema for the interim WBC Light Middleweight title and then faced Kermit Cintron. The bout with Cintron really caught the public's eye with Martinez only getting a draw despite arguably beating Cintron twice. Despite being jobbed to Cintron the fight turned out to be a launch pad for Martinez who would subsequently fight (and controversially lose to) Paul Williams in a fight of the year type bout.
The bout with Williams was followed by a bout with the then Middleweight champion Kelly Pavlik. Martinez showed exceptional boxing ability to defeat the naturally stronger Pavlik by decision before stopping Paul Williams in eye catching fashion to avenge his loss. Following the victory over Williams, Martinez has fought thrice stopping all 3 opponents: Serhiy Dzinziruk (TKO8), Darren Barker (KO11) and Matthew Macklin (TKO11) as he has defended the Ring Middleweight title.
In terms of his style Martinez is a talented outside fighter who fights from a southpaw stance. His KO punch is his thunderous left hook though his jab is also a key and was used to totally neutralise Dzinziruk. Whilst he's not the most defensively sound (often fighting with his hands down low) he is, as mentioned above, a quick fighter and a fighter who uses his feet well, he can however be dropped (as he was by Paul Williams, Kelly Pavlik and Matthew Macklin- though several were merely flash knockdowns).
Despite being the fact many view Sergio Gabriel Martinez as a clear favourite there is a sizable minority who feel that he may be upset by the much young Julio Cesar Chavez Jr, the current WBC Middleweight champion. At just just 26 years old Chavez is coming into his physical prime and it's his physicality that makes him such a live under-dog. Amazingly Chavez often rehydrates to around 180lbs, a huge physical advantage over many Middleweights who Chavez can simply walk through and break down.
Whilst Chavez Jr may be better known due to who his dad is (a former Mexican boxing legend) he is now actually carving out a genuinely respectable career in his own right, perhaps proving to be the best of the "Jr's" out there.
Despite only being 26 Chavez has been around a long time, having made his professional debut way back in 2003 when he was just 17. Early on many followed him due solely to his name and it wasn't until very recently that fans started to accept that Chavez was actually a decent fighter in his own right. For some that turning point was in 2010 when Chavez dominated the highly popular John Duddy over 12 rounds, for others however it was when Chavez managed to out point Sebastian Zbik for the WBC Middleweight title a year later.
As the WBC champion Chavez has defended his title 3 times defeating Peter Manfredo Jr (TKO5), veteran Marco Rubio (UD12) and Irishman Andy Lee (TKO7) looking better every time. Some however feel that the whole title reign of Chavez Jr is a fraud with the title having been stripped from Martinez prior to Chavez's bout with Zbik.
In terms of his style Chavez is a bully. He's not naturally gifted, he's not a massive puncher and he's not lighting quick but he's a big, strong, hard fighter who will happily take a shot to land his own. He can be out boxed but he is very hard to outwork, especially over 12 rounds where he can use his bulk to his advantage to wear opponents down both mentally and physically. Whilst not a KO puncher Chavez's shots have genuine weight behind them and are genuinely hurtful.
Whilst Chavez is tough I think the key to beating him is move and box him OR hitting him hard enough so that he respects you. I'm not certain that Martinez hits hard enough to make Chavez respect him however he moves well enough to keep Chavez at range and could well defeat Chavez in a similar manner to how he defeated Kelly Pavlik.
For Chavez to win he will not only need to take the hard shots of Martinez but also break the Argentinian down, something that hasn't been done since Margarito did it over a decade ago. Chavez will have to cut the ring down and go to the body of Martinez to slow him down, if he can manage this he does have a real chance of springing the upset.
The question of who controls the distance here, will likely determine who wins.
Prediction- Martinez UD
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