Whilst many fights have excitement written all over them the upcoming Super Middleweight title bout between the WBC and WBA "super" champion Andre Ward (25-0, 13) and current WBC Light Heavyweight champion Chad Dawson (31-1-0-2, 17) really has "stinker" written all over it.
Despite being the current WBC Light Heavyweight champion Chad Dawson will be dropping 7lbs to challenge for the Super Middleweight titles, a decision that I personally feel he will regret, however it is an in-built excuse for a loss.
Dawson made his professional debut back in 2001 after having had a solid Amateur career which saw him defeating current WBA Light Heavyweight champion Beibut Shumenov and claiming a number of amateur medals (notably a Bronze at the 2000 World Junior Championships). As a professional he showed a lot of early promise and quickly raced to the WBC Youth World Middleweight title in a little over 2 years.
Over the following years Dawson continued to rise through the rankings not only defending his WBC Youth title at Middleweight but also claiming the WBO NABO Super Middleweight title before finally moving to Light Heavyweight in 2006. It was at 175lbs that the athletically built Dawson really excelled and in early 2007 he claimed the first world title of his professional career as he out pointed the then unbeaten Tomaz Adamek for the WBC world title.
As the WBC champion Dawson made 3 title defenses with the highlight of them being a controversial decision win over veteran Glen Johnson. Instead of facing his mandatory challenger Dawson gave up his WBC title to instead face the IBF champion Antonio Tarver. Against Tarver we saw Dawson looking sensational as he claimed his second professional title and further secured his claim as one of the elite fighters at 175lbs. It seemed as if Dawson was on his way to becoming a major name in the sport but sadly he wasted the following year by rematching both Tarver and Johnson as his career started to stand still. What made those bouts worse for Dawson was that he merely looked to be going through the motions and doing just enough to bag enough rounds to win.
Things went from bad to worse for Dawson as he suffered his first (and so far only) professional loss just over 2 years ago losing to the Canadian based Haitian Jean Pascal. Sadly Dawson again attempted to do just enough to steal rounds, this time however it failed and after a clash of heads in round 11 left Dawson with a nasty gash the bout was taken to the cards early with the decision favouring Pascal. It was hoped by many that the loss to Pascal would ignite the fire under Dawson however just 9 months later on Dawson's return he again looked like a fighter who didn't really want to fight.
Dawson eventually re-claimed the WBC Light Heavyweight by defeating the legendary Bernard Hopkins (who had dethroned Pascal) on the second of trying after their first bout ended in a bizarre no contest.
In terms of style Dawson is a true frustration to watch. He's quick, he's powerful, he moves very well and throws some of the most wonderful combinations seen in the higher weights sadly however he's incredibly lazy in the ring and often fights down to his opponents level rather than attempting to impose himself on the fight and dominate his opponent with his strengths. If a trainer to could force Dawson to listen to him and follow instructions then Dawson has the potential to be something very special. As well a being naturally blessed with amazing speed Dawson is also blessed with a huge wingspan and a 76" reach, something that he can, when he's switched on, use amazingly well with his straight shots, though again it's a case of actually getting him to throw punches.
Whilst Dawson has made his name at Light Heavyweight and will be coming down, Andre Ward has made his reputation in the Super Middleweight division where he stands as the divisions kingpin. Not only is Ward the WBA "super" and WBC champion at 168lbs but he was also the winner of the inaugural "Super 6 Boxing Classic", a competition that saw him defeating Carl Froch, Arthur Abraham and Mikkel Kessler.
Like Dawson, Ward first made his name in the amateur ranks, however as an Amateur Ward was much, much more decorated. Not only did he run up a record of 114-5, he was also undefeated in several years, a multi-time national champion and most notably an Olympic Gold Medal winner.
Having won Gold at the Athens Olympics Ward soon turned professional and debuted at the end of 2004 by fighting as a Middleweight. Over the first few years of his career Ward slowly climbed the rankings, often defeating more experienced professionals with out too much trouble, though he did struggle with journeyman Darnell Boone.
Since 2009 Ward has become a fixture at the top of the Super Middleweight division having scored notable wins over Edison Miranda, Mikkel Kessler, Allan Green, Sakio Bika, Arthur Abraham (who won the WBO Super Middleweight title just a few weeks ago) and Carl Froch. It was the win over Kessler, in November 2009 that really put Ward on the boxing map as he out fought, out slicked and thoroughly out-boxed the highly regarded Dane to claim the WBA "super" title. The win over Carl Froch in December 2011 saw Ward then adding the WBC title to his collection and further proving he was the top dog.
Ward is a very skilled operator who despite his poor KO record is incredibly strong, very quick (with his hands, feet and body movement), slippery both inside and outside and has an uncanny knack of rarely being caught clean. At distance his jab is excellent and disrupts the rhythm opponents whilst up close Ward works hard to both the body and head of opponents whilst neutralising opponents excellently. Whilst he's a hugely gifted boxer he can be rather dull to watch due to many of his bouts becoming mauls, however he does have the ability to dominate fights with ease.
Going into the fight the biggest question is how will the weight effect Dawson? He's looked massive at Light Heavyweight and many feel he has had to drain himself to make 175lbs the extra 7lbs may make a huge difference to Dawson's durability and stamina. If he can make the weight with out damaging himself he could be a serious threat with his speed and combinations. If he can't make the weight with out issues he could find himself in an incredibly difficult bout.
For Dawson to win he needs to hope that not only he can cope with the lower weight but that he get up for this fight and actually keep up a solid pace. His usual style of working in short bursts with his electric hand speed simply won't work here as Ward will be on him. Dawson will not only need to be busier than usual but will also have to use his reach advantage (around 5") to try and neutralise Ward's excellent jab and keep him at range. If (and that' a big "if") he can put his foot on the gas for more than 45 seconds a round and use his jab he could surprise Ward and make this a competitive bout. If however the weight issue effects Dawson's stamina negatively this could be a long and hard night for him.
For Ward the key is to get inside the reach of Dawson and whilst he may have a very good jab himself, Wards reach disadvantage will be very noticeable. Thankfully for Ward he often finds a way to slip punches as he tries to get inside an opponent and bully them up close where he is sensational. When he gets inside of Dawson the inside work will seriously pay dividends and I imagine Ward will work the body well up close which should not only test the stamina of Dawson but also help slow the fast hands of the taller man.
If Dawson can stay active with his jab and keep Ward at range this could be a very even bout, however I can't help but think that Ward, with his excellent defense and work up close will do enough secure a decision. This could be the toughest bout of Ward's career if (and only if) Dawson can actually let his hands go with some regularity, though it's much more likely that Dawson will do little more than flurry once or twice a round whilst Ward smothers and lands up close in an unexciting 12 maul.
Prediction-Ward by decision in a rather mundane affair that has promise but never really springs to life.
For gamblers-
Ward is the a favourite at around 4/11 whilst Dawson is priced as high as 3/1.
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