The Super Middleweight division is one that Britain has typically fared really well in with the likes of Joe Calzaghe, Nigel Benn, Chris Eubank, Robin Reid and Richie Woodhall amongst others. Despite the memorable names what really stands out were the all-British fights such as the battles between Benn, Eubank and the tragic Michael Watson.
This weekend promises another of those classic all-British Super Middleweight world title fights as the 36 year old Carl Froch (31-2, 22) fights the unbeaten George Groves (19-0, 15) in what will be Groves' first fight at the world level.
The fact this is Groves' first world title fight is a major point to me. Although obviously talented Groves is taking a massive step up in class moving from fighting the likes of Noe Gonzalez Alcoba and Baker Barakat, his last two opponents, to facing the likes of Froch. Yes they were effectively stay busy fights for Groves but Froch is by far the best fighter Groves has ever fought as a professional.
What Groves does have going for him is youth, he's only 25, speed and almost certainly better movement. Though when you're toughest fights are against James DeGale and Kevin Anderson it's fair to say that you've not really had the developmental fights to prepare you for a world level bout. I think this is crucial matter. Groves never went up against fringe level fighters such as Maxim Vlasov, Ezequiel Osvaldo Maderna or even someone like Dimitri Sartison and this could bite him on the backside.
The problem regarding Groves' "level" is that we've seen him hurt, cut and knocked down in the bouts he's already been involved in. Although he's come through the scares the fact he was in those struggles is a worry.
Another problem for Groves is that he has left long term trainer Adam Smith in recent weeks. Whilst this might not directly cause him problems it will certainly have been a distraction and something that could see Groves' attention not being on Froch.
With Groves not being a proven world level fighter it's fair to say that's not something that can be said about Froch. "The Cobra", as he is known, has fought in 10 successive world title bouts dating back to 2008 and met the very best in his division such as Andre Ward and Mikkel Kessler. That sort of experience is invaluable and despite being 36 Froch has that proven ability to operate at the top.
Although experienced Froch does have some issues himself. He is defensively suspect, his speed isn't as good as it once was and he does have miles on the clock. You don't fight 24 rounds with Mikkel Kessler with out taking some serious damage in return. Saying that however Froch has always proven to be very tough bother physically and mentally and although he may take a few shots he rarely seems to be really hurt.
As well as the experience and the toughness I also tend to think that Froch is the bigger puncher. Neither has proven to be genuinely destructive at this level, though Froch has stopped Lucien Bute which is better than Groves stopping the likes of Paul Smith (who lets be honest isn't even the best in his own family).
I don't want to sound like I'm trivialising the challenge of Groves but I honestly feel he won't trouble Froch. He'll try to outbox Froch for a round or two though by the third Froch will be walking him down and connecting with his own shots slowly but surely knocking lumps out of Groves' confidence and stopping him around the 8th round as Groves' lack of world class competition gets shown up to be the difference.
This'll be fun, but it won't be the classic we're all hoping for.
Prediction-Froch TKO8
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