Not every fight we see scheduled gets the pulses racing in anticipation of a war. I know I'm not looking forward to Andre Ward v Edwin Rodriguez for example, however one fight that screams "blood, guts and violence" is the upcoming WBO interim Light Welterweight contest between Mike Alvarado (34-1, 23) and Russian slugger Ruslan Provodnikov (22-2, 15), a fight that makes me remember just why I love this great sport of ours.
It's not often that we get true warriors matched together, but that's what we have here with two fighters who actually look like they were made for each other. Both are TV friendly, fan friendly and better yet they are sharing a ring together, what more can we want?
As the defending champion the pressure is on Alvarado who impressed many by avenging his sole defeat earlier this year. Having lost to Brandon Rios in a tear up last year Alvarado took on Rios for a second time and showed his ability to box as well as fight as he mixed things up and out pointed Rios in a barnstormer. He'll have to show his boxing ability again here, though it's a relief for the American that has it in his locker.
Although Alvarado is "only" 33 he's a fighter who has many more miles on the clock than a normal 33 year old. His history of out-manning opponents will have taken it's toll on his long term health, his career and his ability to go to the well again. That's not to say he's only got 1 more good fight in him, but it is to say that his style is going to catch up with him sooner or later. It might be this bout, it might the next one, or it might be 10 fights away, but it will happen.
Whilst Alvarado has shown an ability to go to plan B we've never seen that from Provodnikov a man who has single game plan and one that is usually effective. To fight. You'll never get anything unpredictable from Provodnikov, there's no traps or clever countering, there's little in the way of imagination though what you get is a strong, tough, hard hitting Russian on a seek and destroy mission from round 1 to round 12.
Provodnikov can be made to look second rate by someone who boxes on the move, though he'll take advantage of any lapses in concentration and landing thudding shots with either hand. It takes not just a tough opponent to beat him, but one with either boundless energy or one the ability to discourage him, something we've yet to see.
If Alvarado employees his usual "fighting" style then this is a FOTY candidate with every round being a mini war. If, instead, Alvarado elects to box the American may find that he looks a level or two better than Provodnikov who could look 1-dimensional. Problem for Alvarado though if he does choose to box is that Provodbikov won't back off and only needs to land one punch to shake him, as hard as Alvarado tries to box there will always be that tense feeling that Provodnikov is only 1 shot away from turning the bout around.
I think Alvarado will manage to box for most of the fight, he'll certainly have a scare and may be dropped, though will show his smarts and just do enough to take a very tight decision in a memorable FOTY contender. I can certainly see Provodnikov hurting the American, but for some reason I think that Alvarado will see out the storm in a fight that sees fans and the media calling for an immediate rematch, just as much for the action as anything else.
Prediction-Alvarado SD12
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