In the past few weeks the British list of world champions has changed quite a bit with Nathan Cleverly losing his WBO Light Heavyweight title whilst Darren Barker Claimed the IBF Middleweight title. One man hoping not to get caught up in the title shuffle will be WBO Lightweight champion Ricky Burns (36-2, 11) who looks to make the fourth defense of his title as he takes on the dangerous, over hugely under-rated Raymundo Beltran (28-6, 17).
Although Burns will go into the fight as a rightful favourite as not only the champion but also the home fighter, fighting in his native Scotland the odds I've seen listed seem rather astonishing, favouring Burns at 1/4 (1.25) for a fight that is actually much tougher than they bookies seem to think.
Burns at his best, is a highly skilled boxer, who in recent bouts, notably the victory against Kevin Mitchell, appeared to be adding a punch to his boxing skills. Typically he's shown good timing, a clever understanding of the ring, a crisp jab and a lovely selection of shots. At his worst however, as we saw last time out against Jose Gonzalez, he's a pedestrian fighter who can be made to look slow and robotic.
Aged just 30 Burns is partaking in his 9th straight world title fight and standing at 5'10" he is a tall and rangy Lightweight. Whilst many have merely said "he won" the Gonzalez fight due to Gonzalez "quitting" I dare say that Burns is now struggling with the Lightweight limit, thus his awful performance that night was as much to do with Gonzalez, who was admittedly skilled, as a possible issues with the 135lb division.
Although I'm sure others will disagree, if Burns is struggling with 135lbs this fight really could be very, very difficult for him, and it could well explain the lack of energy and timing he showed against Gonzalez.
If you just look at Beltran's record, as I'm sure the bookies have done, you'd see a record of someone who perhaps hasn't shown anything to prove his worth at world. A quick review of his record however shows that he's become a bit of a bad luck story and in fact he could well boast a 32-2 (17) record with all 4 of his decision losses being controversial.
In fact if Beltran's close decision losses had gone his way not only would he have a very solid looking record in terms of numbers but his recent run of victories would look to be amongst the best in the division. Whilst he has scored genuine victories over Ji-Hoon Kim and Henry Lundy he would also have added victories over Sharif Bogere and Luis Ramos Jr in his last 6 bouts. Lets be honest Kim, Lundy, Bogere and Ramos might not be world champions but all 4 are "in the mix".
Beltran may not be the most skilled or the hardest hitter in the sport but he's in your face warrior. He'll refuse to back up and instead he'll force the fight for the full distance. He'll be in your face and try to beat you whether it's the first round or the last and in fact if you let Beltran know he's the under-dog he seems more determined than ever to prove himself.
Entering as the under-dog Beltran is going to come in to this fight with a chip on his shoulder and a point to prove. Whilst he'll know the playing field is stacked against him he'll know it's not impossible to upset opponents and if my theory that Burns is struggling at 135 turns out to be right we may well be shocked here.
Prediction-Burns by SD12 (Probably a controversial result)
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