In what is arguably the most interesting bout of this coming weekend the vacant IBF Bantamweight title is on the line as Englishman Jame McDonnell (20-2-1, 9) faces Mexican hard hitter Julio Ceja (24-0, 22). The bout, which came about thanks to Leo Santa Cruz moving up to Super Bantamweight really does look like an explosive but that is unlikely to be anything but brilliant.
Although both men will be challengers for the belt, the home advantage sits with McDonnell who will feel the home crowd roaring him on. In fact the "home advantage" is more than just having his crowd there as it's also Ceja's first fight outside of his native Mexico.
Aged 27 McDonnell is the older man and is a fighter in his physical prime. He's certainly a "man" in there and having been a professional since 2005 he's developed from being a boy to a man in the ring. The development hasn't been easy with back to back losses to Chris Edwards and Lee Haskins way back in his career, though it's certainly served him well with his recent rise.
The rise of McDonnell has been exceptional and seen him scoring wins over Ian Napa, Jerome Arnould, Stephane Jamoye and Stuart Hall. He has claimed the British, Commonwealth and European titles and become of the most under-rated fighters in Europe.
With action based style McDonnell has become a must watch fighter. He's proven to be tough, hard working and whilst not a monster puncher he's a real grinder who wears opponents down with relentless work rate. Despite his work rate however McDonnell can be a slow starter and often takes 3 or 4 rounds to get in to his groove, during this time he very ordinary though of course when he gets going he looks brilliant.
With McDonnell being a pressure based action fighter his style should meld really well with his opponent. The 20 year old Ceja, although much younger than McDonnell has got himself a real reputation as a hard hitting monster. Since turning professional back in 2009, aged just 16 Ceja has always been a fighter with a punchers reputation, in fact 5 of his first 9 opponents failed to make it through the opening round.
Although Ceja is a bit unknown to British fans he has been my radar for a while (thanks to various prospect based websites I write for) and his victories over the likes of Ronald Barrera, Cruz Carbajal, Genaro Garcia have put him on the boxing map and on the world rankings.
Whilst Ceja has never been the 12 round distance before (he's actually only been 10 rounds once) he's never really had to struggle through the distance. His concussive power has been a deadly weapon from the opening bell and amazingly 22 of his professional wins have been inside the first 6 rounds. This sort of fast starting has been devastating.
This bout really is a 50-50 contest. If Ceja can jump on McDonnell from the off, before the Englishman is in his rhythm there is real danger that Mexican will blast him out early doors. If McDonnell can survive the early storm he should be able to over-turn the scorecard and possibly stop a tiring Ceja late. Ceja, having never done the 12 rounds before and fighting away from home is certainly the man "taking a step up" though he has the power to genuinely wipe fighters out and if he connects on MCDonnell he may well manage to upset the home fighter.
I've been a huge fan of Ceja for a few years, though feel McDonnell's experience of 12 rounds and home advantage should be just enough to secure him the victory.
Prediction-McDonnell TKO11
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