After scoring arguably the biggest upset of last year Mexican Mario Rodriguez (15-6-4, 11) makes the first defense of the IBF Minimumweight title he annexed from South African Nkosinathi Joyi as he faces former Joyi rival Katsunari Takayama (24-6-0-1, 10). This bout will be Takayama's first bout in Mexico and he remarkably enters 1-4-0-1 in the last 4 years!
Although Rodriguez's record is scratchy to say the best the 24 year old "Dragoncito" has been a fighter who has had to sink or swim from an early age. He debuted at 17 years old and started his career 10-6-4 with losses to Jose Alfredo Rodriguez and Donnie Nietes and a draw with Pedro Guevara amongst others. Not bad opponents for a young fighter.
In more recent bouts however Rodriguez has been defeating solid and accomplished professionals such as Manuel Jimenez, Karluis Diaz, Gilberto Keb Baas, Armando Vazquez and of course Joyi in a genuinely impressive streak. He hasn't just been beating his opponents he's been stopping them as well with only Jimenez surviving the distance from that impressive series of opponents.
Rodriguez isn't the most skilled but he's a very tough fighter who hasn't been stopped since losing his debut via 2nd round TKO to Geovanny Lopez (who Rodriguez beat in a rematch) and he relies on his toughness, his power and his work rate to over-come opponents. He's a fighter who if given a chance to have a tear up would likely come out on top.
Although Takayama is going through the worst run of his career (as mentioned above he's won just 1 of his last 6) the 29 year old is a proven force at the top level in the division. He's not only a former WBC and WBA interim champion but he's also a fighter who has faced a relative who's who including Isaac Bustos, Eagle Den Junlaphan. Carlos Melo, Yutaka Niida, Roman Gonzalez, Tshepo Lefele and Joyi (twice). As well as fighting that high level of competition he has also been unfortunate in some of his losses, most notably a split decision loss to Mateo Handig last time out and the loss to Niida.
Takayama is, like Rodriguez, a tough fighter (as he showed repeatedly against Gonzalez) and he's also a fighter with a solid work rate though unfortunately he seems to lack power and can be dragged in to a war (as he was with Gonzalez). If Takayama goes to Mexico with a point to prove I think he'll lose a decision though sadly if he chooses to box he may be viewed as negative and may end up losing anyway, it really is a toughy for the Japanese veteran.
Rodriguez isn't as bad as his record indicated and for me this would be a pretty even fight on neutral territory though in Mexico it's hard to imagine Rodriguez losing.
Prediction-Rodriguez by UD in a thoroughly enjoyable bout.
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