In by far the biggest fight of the weekend Brit Carl Froch (30-2, 22) looks for revenge over Dane Mikkel Kessler (46-2, 35) in an IBF/WBA Super Middleweight title unification bout. The bout, live on Sky Box Office in the UK and other various channels around the world is unarguably to define the #2 Super Middleweight on the planet and also a rare chance to see 2 top fighters pitted against each other.
When the men first fought, just over 3 years ago, it was part of the "Super 6" and Kessler claimed a very competitive decision decision in his homeland in what was a fight of the year contender. Since then a rematch always looked likely to occur despite the men becoming close friends and now we are just a few hours from that long awaited rematch, this time taking place in Britain, the homeland of Froch.
Since the men first fought their careers have seemingly gone in opposite directions. For Kessler things have been a struggle due to injuries and long lay offs. He's recaptured a world title (the WBA belt) though it's a title that most view as a paper belt manufactured for little more than a sanctioning fee and he hasn't looked as sharp, or as destructive as he had been before the Froch fight. For Froch he has moved from strength to strength and whilst he suffered a set back to Andre Ward he did go on to beat Arthur Abraham and Lucien Bute. both in impressive fashion.
At his best Kessler is a very solid all-rounder. He has very impressive straight shots, a lovely body attack and is durable, though he can be made to look slow and doesn't look the same fighter when forced on to the back foot. If you allow Kessler to fight behind his jab he's very hard to beat and if you let him connect with his booming straight right he can take fighters out with just a single shot.
When people talk about Kessler they never speak about any outstanding single attribute, just that he's very good at almost everything. He does have his flaws, notably his lack of handspeed and relatively weak inside game though on the whole he is a very solid fighter.
At his best (and at his most confident) Froch is a destructive fighter who will bring the fight to anyone, take one to land one and have the belief in his power and chin to stop anyone. He has an excellent work rate, under-rated "pure boxing" and although he can be dragged in to someone elses fight (as he was with Kessler first time around) he tends to dictate the action.
Froch does have numerous flaws, notably his low hands and again relatively slow hands speed though other than Andre Ward no one has really made him pay for those too much (though Jermain Taylor almost managed to do it).
Kessler has had a tremendous career and really helped put Denmark on the boxing map in recent years. He is a 3-time WBA champion and a 1-time WBC champion who has recorded wins over Dingaan Thobela, Julio Cesar Green, Manny Siaca, Anthony Mundine, Eric Lucas, Markus Beyer, Librado Andrade and Brian Magee whilst suffering losses to Andre Ward and Joe Calzaghe, two of the divisions greatest.
Froch on the other hand has beaten the likes of Magee, Jean Pascal, Taylor, Andre Dirrell, Abraham, Glen Johnson and Bute whilst losing only to Kessler and Ward.
With both men now in their mid 30's this could well be the final big fight for one of them. Although Froch is technically the older man (at 35 years old to Kessler's 34 years) he is the younger man in terms of ring years with 16 fewer fights and 39 fewer rounds, this could well give him the slight edge in terms of what he has left.
For me, Froch has looked a much better fighter in his past 2 bouts whilst Kessler is showing signs of his long career, with that in mind I'm picking Froch, in fact I'm going one further and predicting that Froch will stop Kessler.
Prediction-Froch TKO 7
Friday, 24 May 2013
Omar Andres Narvaez v Felipe Orucuta
Argentinian veteran Omar Andres Narvaez (38-1-2, 20) may be fast heading to his 38th birthday but the skilled and slippery fighter is still rated by many as the premier Super Flyweight on the planet. The WBO champion will need to show why he is so highly regard this coming weekend as he takes on the very dangerous Mexican Felipe Orucuta (27-1, 23), a younger, stronger and bigger fighter.
The once beaten Narvaez, a 2-time Olympian, has been one of the hardcore boxing fans favourite boxers over the past decade or so. He's proven to be hugely skilled and intelligent fighter who has been able to thrive at the top for years thanks to his fast hands and elusiveness which has seen him making a trademark out of slipping opponents shots, landing a flurry then getting away.
Although clearly slowing as he nears his 40th birthday Narvaez is still surprisingly fast and in recent bouts he has started to show a spitefulness, especially in his stoppage of Johnny Garcia late last year. Saying that however Narvaez was never a powerful fighter (despite the ridiculous comments of both Steve Bunce and Steve Lillis back in 2011 on Boxnation) and that was also the case when he was carving out his career at Flyweight, now at Super Flyweight his power is even less significant.
With retirement looming it's hard to really say what Narvaez has left, though we've been saying that for the past few years and he's kept pushing challengers back such as Victor Zaleta, Cesar Seda, William Urina and Jose Cabrera, rarely losing a round in the fights. In all honesty, the Donaire fight aside, Narvaez has really been forced to do things he doesn't want to do in the ring, it's fair to say however that Orucuta will be looking to change that.
Aged 27, Orucuta is a much younger fighter with some 9 years of youth on his side as well as a stunning 5" in height and a notable physical advantage with longer arms and a thicker body. It's likely that the Mexican could well be a division, if not 2, bigger than Narvaez in the ring.
Orucuta debuted back in 2006 and after winning his first 18 fights he suffered his sole professional loss to Daniel Rosas, a close decision. Since the loss to Rosas, Orucuta has gone 9-0 (9) and scored notable victories over Julio David Roque Ler, Roberto Castaneda Julio Cesar Miranda and Fernando Lumacad. It's the manner of those victories that have seen many tipping Orucuta here as he's been blasting out experienced and talented opponents time and time again.
With age, size, power and energy on his side Orucuta should well be a betting favourite though the skill, experience and edge do all favour Narvaez, as does the fact that the Argentinian fighter will be at home in front of his loyal fans whilst Orucuta will be fighting his first fight outside of his native Mexico. The fact that Orucuta has never fought outside of Mexico will be a major disadvantage here and could well be what swings the fight in the way of Narvaez.
This is seen by the bookies as a genuine toss up fight, we don't get many of those in this sport. I'm actually very much split here but always find it hard to pick against Narvaez who could make Orucuta look silly if he's as sharp as he once was.
Prediction-Narvaez UD12 (but very competitively)
The once beaten Narvaez, a 2-time Olympian, has been one of the hardcore boxing fans favourite boxers over the past decade or so. He's proven to be hugely skilled and intelligent fighter who has been able to thrive at the top for years thanks to his fast hands and elusiveness which has seen him making a trademark out of slipping opponents shots, landing a flurry then getting away.
Although clearly slowing as he nears his 40th birthday Narvaez is still surprisingly fast and in recent bouts he has started to show a spitefulness, especially in his stoppage of Johnny Garcia late last year. Saying that however Narvaez was never a powerful fighter (despite the ridiculous comments of both Steve Bunce and Steve Lillis back in 2011 on Boxnation) and that was also the case when he was carving out his career at Flyweight, now at Super Flyweight his power is even less significant.
With retirement looming it's hard to really say what Narvaez has left, though we've been saying that for the past few years and he's kept pushing challengers back such as Victor Zaleta, Cesar Seda, William Urina and Jose Cabrera, rarely losing a round in the fights. In all honesty, the Donaire fight aside, Narvaez has really been forced to do things he doesn't want to do in the ring, it's fair to say however that Orucuta will be looking to change that.
Aged 27, Orucuta is a much younger fighter with some 9 years of youth on his side as well as a stunning 5" in height and a notable physical advantage with longer arms and a thicker body. It's likely that the Mexican could well be a division, if not 2, bigger than Narvaez in the ring.
Orucuta debuted back in 2006 and after winning his first 18 fights he suffered his sole professional loss to Daniel Rosas, a close decision. Since the loss to Rosas, Orucuta has gone 9-0 (9) and scored notable victories over Julio David Roque Ler, Roberto Castaneda Julio Cesar Miranda and Fernando Lumacad. It's the manner of those victories that have seen many tipping Orucuta here as he's been blasting out experienced and talented opponents time and time again.
With age, size, power and energy on his side Orucuta should well be a betting favourite though the skill, experience and edge do all favour Narvaez, as does the fact that the Argentinian fighter will be at home in front of his loyal fans whilst Orucuta will be fighting his first fight outside of his native Mexico. The fact that Orucuta has never fought outside of Mexico will be a major disadvantage here and could well be what swings the fight in the way of Narvaez.
This is seen by the bookies as a genuine toss up fight, we don't get many of those in this sport. I'm actually very much split here but always find it hard to pick against Narvaez who could make Orucuta look silly if he's as sharp as he once was.
Prediction-Narvaez UD12 (but very competitively)
Thursday, 16 May 2013
Denis Lebedev v Guillermo Jones
WBA Cruiserweight title action sees former champion Guillermo Jones (?-?) attempt to recapture his old belt from Russian Denis Lebedev (?-?) in a bout that has been made...and than cancelled more often than Floyd Mayweather Jr has "taken vacations".
Now aged 41 years old what Jones has left is a bit of a mystery. He's looked good in his most recent fights stopping Firat Arslan, Valery Brudov and Michael Marrone but those bouts span almost 5 years and it really is a mystery as to what he has left in him.
At his best Jones was a tricky customer. He was big, powerful, fast, slippery and managed to land an amazing number of sneaky shots. He could look lazy but yet effective, clumsy but yet intelligent and hurt yet teak tough. In fact Jones has one of those styles which never looks good but also never lets his opponents look much good either.
Although Jones is 3-1-2 in world title fights many feel that he should be 6-0, his draws with Jhonny Nelson and Laurent Boudouani (who he also lost to) were all highly controversial and all came away from home. Even though he has had bad fortune on the road he's proven he isn't adverse to fighting away and has won fights in Venezuela, the USA and most notably German (where he stopped Arslan).
At "just" 33 years old Lebedev, the home fighter for this bout is significantly younger than the challenger though is also less experienced in terms of both professional bouts and professional rounds. Despite his relative inexperience Lebedev has proven to be a world class fighter mixing it with Enzo Maccarinelli, Alexander Alekseev and Marco Huck amongst others, with only Huck managing to score a victory over him (albeit controversially).
Lebedev is a small, powerful Cruiserweight who hits like a truck, uses very under-rated boxing skills and has an excellent killer instinct. He's shown a bit too much respect in some fights, notably his bout with Roy Jones, though when he lets his hands go he's a destructive force able to break bones and out man the tough men of the division.
Although Lebedev isn't one of the big names in world boxing he is one of the sports most genuinely exciting fighters. His power brings excitement, his toughness brings action and overall it's always a joy to watch him in a bout. This time around though he could be in for a tough night as he gives away an astonishing 5" in height.
The height difference between the two men will be drastic and a major disadvantage for Lebedev, who is a big betting favourite. In terms of skills it'd be fair to say that Jones is the more skilled man, Lebedev the more powerful, both are tough and both are proven and whilst the size is clearly an advantage for Jones the age is a clear disadvantage.
Prime for prime I'd have to go with Jones though now, with too many questions surrounding him I have to go with Lebedev who is fresher and won't have the ring rust or just general rust of Jones.
Prediction-Lebedev TKO10
Now aged 41 years old what Jones has left is a bit of a mystery. He's looked good in his most recent fights stopping Firat Arslan, Valery Brudov and Michael Marrone but those bouts span almost 5 years and it really is a mystery as to what he has left in him.
At his best Jones was a tricky customer. He was big, powerful, fast, slippery and managed to land an amazing number of sneaky shots. He could look lazy but yet effective, clumsy but yet intelligent and hurt yet teak tough. In fact Jones has one of those styles which never looks good but also never lets his opponents look much good either.
Although Jones is 3-1-2 in world title fights many feel that he should be 6-0, his draws with Jhonny Nelson and Laurent Boudouani (who he also lost to) were all highly controversial and all came away from home. Even though he has had bad fortune on the road he's proven he isn't adverse to fighting away and has won fights in Venezuela, the USA and most notably German (where he stopped Arslan).
At "just" 33 years old Lebedev, the home fighter for this bout is significantly younger than the challenger though is also less experienced in terms of both professional bouts and professional rounds. Despite his relative inexperience Lebedev has proven to be a world class fighter mixing it with Enzo Maccarinelli, Alexander Alekseev and Marco Huck amongst others, with only Huck managing to score a victory over him (albeit controversially).
Lebedev is a small, powerful Cruiserweight who hits like a truck, uses very under-rated boxing skills and has an excellent killer instinct. He's shown a bit too much respect in some fights, notably his bout with Roy Jones, though when he lets his hands go he's a destructive force able to break bones and out man the tough men of the division.
Although Lebedev isn't one of the big names in world boxing he is one of the sports most genuinely exciting fighters. His power brings excitement, his toughness brings action and overall it's always a joy to watch him in a bout. This time around though he could be in for a tough night as he gives away an astonishing 5" in height.
The height difference between the two men will be drastic and a major disadvantage for Lebedev, who is a big betting favourite. In terms of skills it'd be fair to say that Jones is the more skilled man, Lebedev the more powerful, both are tough and both are proven and whilst the size is clearly an advantage for Jones the age is a clear disadvantage.
Prime for prime I'd have to go with Jones though now, with too many questions surrounding him I have to go with Lebedev who is fresher and won't have the ring rust or just general rust of Jones.
Prediction-Lebedev TKO10
Tuesday, 14 May 2013
Alexander Povetkin v Andrzej Wawrzyk
WBA Heavyweight champion Alexander Povetkin (25-0, 17) maybe a much maligned fighter though for many he is still one of the best in division. He will be hoping to show off the form that saw him rapidly climbing the rankings as he defends his title this coming Friday against relatively unknown Pole Andrzej Wawrzyk (27-0, 13).
As an amateur Povetkin was genuinely special. He was not only part of the Russian national team but was also one of the most decorated fighters in the team with 125 wins from 132 bouts including championship wins in the Olympics, the World Amateur Championships and the European Amateur Championships.
Since turning professional there was always a lot of expectation on Povetkin's shoulders and whilst he did race up the rankings thanks to victories over Eddie Chambers and Chris Byrd he has recently taken a lot of stick for avoiding bouts with Wladimir Klitschko and other meaningful Heavyweights. This abuse has been doubled up by the fact that the that the 33 year has appeared to regress in recent bouts which has again left him open to complaints from fans.
In the ring Povetkin is skilled. He has good knowledge of the ring, has decent handspeed, hurtful power, fantastic range of shots, solid defense and when he's in an offensive rhythm he's a genuine joy to watch. Sadly for all his good traits there are question marks over his heart, his chin and his stamina with all 3 looking like genuinely average and like limiting factors.
Having been a professional world champion since August 2011 Povetkin has been facing genuinely awful competition in his defenses including Hasim Rahman and Cedric Boswell as well as Cruiserweight Marco Huck (who came incredibly close to stopping Povetkin in their tear up). It appears, win or lose, that the Russian will be taking some serious criticism with this bout against Wawrzyk.
Relatively unknown to boxing fans unbeaten Pole Wawrzyk is 25 years old and has surprisingly been a professional since 2006. Although a bit of an obscure fighter he has claimed various titles including a Polish national title, a WBC "youth" title, and regional WBA and WBC belts as he's quietly climbed up the rankings.
Despite the fact he has an impressive Wawrzyk has only really faced C level fights such as Tomasz Bonin, Robert Hawkins and Denis Bahktov. It's actually the Bahktov fight though that has told us more about Wawrzyk than any other bout as we saw him hurt from counters over his lazy jab, and if Bahktov can take advantage of that then Povetkin certainly can as well.
Although popular back home in Poland, Wawrzyk has fought abroad several times, though last time he did fight away from home was way back in 2010 when he faced Harvey Jolly in the US. Whilst he may not be that afraid of fighting away from home, he is stepping up and going in to the lion's den, where he is supposed to the lamb to the slaughter.
I'd be shocked if Wawrzyk remained in the fight beyond round 9. He's going to take a real battering when Povetkin warms in to the bout and takes advantage of the Pole's short comings. Expect a good start by the challenger, though it won't take long before the champion gets going and forces a stoppage.
Prediction-Povetkin TKO7
As an amateur Povetkin was genuinely special. He was not only part of the Russian national team but was also one of the most decorated fighters in the team with 125 wins from 132 bouts including championship wins in the Olympics, the World Amateur Championships and the European Amateur Championships.
Since turning professional there was always a lot of expectation on Povetkin's shoulders and whilst he did race up the rankings thanks to victories over Eddie Chambers and Chris Byrd he has recently taken a lot of stick for avoiding bouts with Wladimir Klitschko and other meaningful Heavyweights. This abuse has been doubled up by the fact that the that the 33 year has appeared to regress in recent bouts which has again left him open to complaints from fans.
In the ring Povetkin is skilled. He has good knowledge of the ring, has decent handspeed, hurtful power, fantastic range of shots, solid defense and when he's in an offensive rhythm he's a genuine joy to watch. Sadly for all his good traits there are question marks over his heart, his chin and his stamina with all 3 looking like genuinely average and like limiting factors.
Having been a professional world champion since August 2011 Povetkin has been facing genuinely awful competition in his defenses including Hasim Rahman and Cedric Boswell as well as Cruiserweight Marco Huck (who came incredibly close to stopping Povetkin in their tear up). It appears, win or lose, that the Russian will be taking some serious criticism with this bout against Wawrzyk.
Relatively unknown to boxing fans unbeaten Pole Wawrzyk is 25 years old and has surprisingly been a professional since 2006. Although a bit of an obscure fighter he has claimed various titles including a Polish national title, a WBC "youth" title, and regional WBA and WBC belts as he's quietly climbed up the rankings.
Despite the fact he has an impressive Wawrzyk has only really faced C level fights such as Tomasz Bonin, Robert Hawkins and Denis Bahktov. It's actually the Bahktov fight though that has told us more about Wawrzyk than any other bout as we saw him hurt from counters over his lazy jab, and if Bahktov can take advantage of that then Povetkin certainly can as well.
Although popular back home in Poland, Wawrzyk has fought abroad several times, though last time he did fight away from home was way back in 2010 when he faced Harvey Jolly in the US. Whilst he may not be that afraid of fighting away from home, he is stepping up and going in to the lion's den, where he is supposed to the lamb to the slaughter.
I'd be shocked if Wawrzyk remained in the fight beyond round 9. He's going to take a real battering when Povetkin warms in to the bout and takes advantage of the Pole's short comings. Expect a good start by the challenger, though it won't take long before the champion gets going and forces a stoppage.
Prediction-Povetkin TKO7
Friday, 10 May 2013
Ricky Burns v Jose A Gonzalez
Scotland's Ricky Burns (35-2, 10) has had a pretty poor last year or so with several bouts falling through for one reason or another. Since beating Kevin Mitchell way back in September 2012 Burns has moved across the promotional void and gone from Frank Warren to Matchroom Sports and will now be making his first bout under the Matchroom banner.
Burns' first fight under Matchroom sees him defending his WBO Lightweight title against mandatory contender Jose A Gonzalez (22-0, 17), a dangerous though somewhat unknown adversary.
Burns, an excellent boxer has really made his name over the past few years by showing off excellent boxing ability and with out the fan fare of an Amir Khan or David Haye he's become a bit of a British boxing treasure. He's successfully claimed WBO titles at both Super Featherweight and now Lightweight and scored notable wins over Roman Martinez, Michael Katsidis and Kevin Mitchell though has yet to prove his talent in a major bout outside of the UK.
Despite being a former Super Featherweight Burns is a big guy at Lightweight. His height and reach are reflective of a fighter from a division or two higher and whilst he's not a big puncher he does hit harder than his record indicates. Burns' power may well be one of the most over-looked aspects of any active fighter, his crisp, clean shots are hurtful, not concussive but very hurtful when they land clean.
If Burns' record is that of an apparent "non-puncher" (despite my view of the opponent) Gonzalez's record is that of a pure power puncher. The challengers 77% KO rate really speaks for it's self and whilst it can be easy to go "who has he stopped?" he has looked like he hits nearly as hard as his record indicates.
Gonzalez's ranking with the WBO is certainly one of the organisations more "inflated" rankings, though with real confidence, a punchers attitude and the knowledge that everyone has written him off is dangerous. He'd be foolish to try and out box Burns, who is amongst the most skilled "boxers" out there but if he can get in to a slug fest he does stand a chance.
Although we should never write any fighter off Gonzalez is stepping up in several ways. This is his first ever bout scheduled for 12 (and he's only actually been 10 rounds once) and he's stepping in with a genuine world level fighter. To say a Gonzalez win would be an upset would be merely stating the obvious.
On paper a Burns decision seems the most obvious, though I'll actually go against that and say the open, reckless style of Gonzalez is there for Burns to sit on his shots and land clean. Those shots, whilst unlikely to take Gonzalez out cleanly will grind him down before a stoppage becomes a late possibility.
Prediction-Ricky Burns TKO11
Burns' first fight under Matchroom sees him defending his WBO Lightweight title against mandatory contender Jose A Gonzalez (22-0, 17), a dangerous though somewhat unknown adversary.
Burns, an excellent boxer has really made his name over the past few years by showing off excellent boxing ability and with out the fan fare of an Amir Khan or David Haye he's become a bit of a British boxing treasure. He's successfully claimed WBO titles at both Super Featherweight and now Lightweight and scored notable wins over Roman Martinez, Michael Katsidis and Kevin Mitchell though has yet to prove his talent in a major bout outside of the UK.
Despite being a former Super Featherweight Burns is a big guy at Lightweight. His height and reach are reflective of a fighter from a division or two higher and whilst he's not a big puncher he does hit harder than his record indicates. Burns' power may well be one of the most over-looked aspects of any active fighter, his crisp, clean shots are hurtful, not concussive but very hurtful when they land clean.
If Burns' record is that of an apparent "non-puncher" (despite my view of the opponent) Gonzalez's record is that of a pure power puncher. The challengers 77% KO rate really speaks for it's self and whilst it can be easy to go "who has he stopped?" he has looked like he hits nearly as hard as his record indicates.
Gonzalez's ranking with the WBO is certainly one of the organisations more "inflated" rankings, though with real confidence, a punchers attitude and the knowledge that everyone has written him off is dangerous. He'd be foolish to try and out box Burns, who is amongst the most skilled "boxers" out there but if he can get in to a slug fest he does stand a chance.
Although we should never write any fighter off Gonzalez is stepping up in several ways. This is his first ever bout scheduled for 12 (and he's only actually been 10 rounds once) and he's stepping in with a genuine world level fighter. To say a Gonzalez win would be an upset would be merely stating the obvious.
On paper a Burns decision seems the most obvious, though I'll actually go against that and say the open, reckless style of Gonzalez is there for Burns to sit on his shots and land clean. Those shots, whilst unlikely to take Gonzalez out cleanly will grind him down before a stoppage becomes a late possibility.
Prediction-Ricky Burns TKO11
Thursday, 9 May 2013
Jamie McDonnell v Julio Ceja
In what is arguably the most interesting bout of this coming weekend the vacant IBF Bantamweight title is on the line as Englishman Jame McDonnell (20-2-1, 9) faces Mexican hard hitter Julio Ceja (24-0, 22). The bout, which came about thanks to Leo Santa Cruz moving up to Super Bantamweight really does look like an explosive but that is unlikely to be anything but brilliant.
Although both men will be challengers for the belt, the home advantage sits with McDonnell who will feel the home crowd roaring him on. In fact the "home advantage" is more than just having his crowd there as it's also Ceja's first fight outside of his native Mexico.
Aged 27 McDonnell is the older man and is a fighter in his physical prime. He's certainly a "man" in there and having been a professional since 2005 he's developed from being a boy to a man in the ring. The development hasn't been easy with back to back losses to Chris Edwards and Lee Haskins way back in his career, though it's certainly served him well with his recent rise.
The rise of McDonnell has been exceptional and seen him scoring wins over Ian Napa, Jerome Arnould, Stephane Jamoye and Stuart Hall. He has claimed the British, Commonwealth and European titles and become of the most under-rated fighters in Europe.
With action based style McDonnell has become a must watch fighter. He's proven to be tough, hard working and whilst not a monster puncher he's a real grinder who wears opponents down with relentless work rate. Despite his work rate however McDonnell can be a slow starter and often takes 3 or 4 rounds to get in to his groove, during this time he very ordinary though of course when he gets going he looks brilliant.
With McDonnell being a pressure based action fighter his style should meld really well with his opponent. The 20 year old Ceja, although much younger than McDonnell has got himself a real reputation as a hard hitting monster. Since turning professional back in 2009, aged just 16 Ceja has always been a fighter with a punchers reputation, in fact 5 of his first 9 opponents failed to make it through the opening round.
Although Ceja is a bit unknown to British fans he has been my radar for a while (thanks to various prospect based websites I write for) and his victories over the likes of Ronald Barrera, Cruz Carbajal, Genaro Garcia have put him on the boxing map and on the world rankings.
Whilst Ceja has never been the 12 round distance before (he's actually only been 10 rounds once) he's never really had to struggle through the distance. His concussive power has been a deadly weapon from the opening bell and amazingly 22 of his professional wins have been inside the first 6 rounds. This sort of fast starting has been devastating.
This bout really is a 50-50 contest. If Ceja can jump on McDonnell from the off, before the Englishman is in his rhythm there is real danger that Mexican will blast him out early doors. If McDonnell can survive the early storm he should be able to over-turn the scorecard and possibly stop a tiring Ceja late. Ceja, having never done the 12 rounds before and fighting away from home is certainly the man "taking a step up" though he has the power to genuinely wipe fighters out and if he connects on MCDonnell he may well manage to upset the home fighter.
I've been a huge fan of Ceja for a few years, though feel McDonnell's experience of 12 rounds and home advantage should be just enough to secure him the victory.
Prediction-McDonnell TKO11
Although both men will be challengers for the belt, the home advantage sits with McDonnell who will feel the home crowd roaring him on. In fact the "home advantage" is more than just having his crowd there as it's also Ceja's first fight outside of his native Mexico.
Aged 27 McDonnell is the older man and is a fighter in his physical prime. He's certainly a "man" in there and having been a professional since 2005 he's developed from being a boy to a man in the ring. The development hasn't been easy with back to back losses to Chris Edwards and Lee Haskins way back in his career, though it's certainly served him well with his recent rise.
The rise of McDonnell has been exceptional and seen him scoring wins over Ian Napa, Jerome Arnould, Stephane Jamoye and Stuart Hall. He has claimed the British, Commonwealth and European titles and become of the most under-rated fighters in Europe.
With action based style McDonnell has become a must watch fighter. He's proven to be tough, hard working and whilst not a monster puncher he's a real grinder who wears opponents down with relentless work rate. Despite his work rate however McDonnell can be a slow starter and often takes 3 or 4 rounds to get in to his groove, during this time he very ordinary though of course when he gets going he looks brilliant.
With McDonnell being a pressure based action fighter his style should meld really well with his opponent. The 20 year old Ceja, although much younger than McDonnell has got himself a real reputation as a hard hitting monster. Since turning professional back in 2009, aged just 16 Ceja has always been a fighter with a punchers reputation, in fact 5 of his first 9 opponents failed to make it through the opening round.
Although Ceja is a bit unknown to British fans he has been my radar for a while (thanks to various prospect based websites I write for) and his victories over the likes of Ronald Barrera, Cruz Carbajal, Genaro Garcia have put him on the boxing map and on the world rankings.
Whilst Ceja has never been the 12 round distance before (he's actually only been 10 rounds once) he's never really had to struggle through the distance. His concussive power has been a deadly weapon from the opening bell and amazingly 22 of his professional wins have been inside the first 6 rounds. This sort of fast starting has been devastating.
This bout really is a 50-50 contest. If Ceja can jump on McDonnell from the off, before the Englishman is in his rhythm there is real danger that Mexican will blast him out early doors. If McDonnell can survive the early storm he should be able to over-turn the scorecard and possibly stop a tiring Ceja late. Ceja, having never done the 12 rounds before and fighting away from home is certainly the man "taking a step up" though he has the power to genuinely wipe fighters out and if he connects on MCDonnell he may well manage to upset the home fighter.
I've been a huge fan of Ceja for a few years, though feel McDonnell's experience of 12 rounds and home advantage should be just enough to secure him the victory.
Prediction-McDonnell TKO11
Wednesday, 8 May 2013
Adrian Hernandez v Yader Cardoza
WBC Light Flyweight champion Adrian Hernandez (26-2-1, 16) will be looking to secure his second successive defense of his world title as he takes on the relatively unknown Nicaraguan Yader Cardoza (15-4, 5).
Hernandez, widely regarded as one of the top 3 or 4 at 108lbs really does seem to be taking part in what is little more than a stay busy defense here. The Mexican, who is now a 2-time champion, is genuinely one of the sports over-looked fighters. He's beaten a genuine who's who in the past 5 years including Rodel Mayol, Gilberto Keb Baas, Gideon Buthelez and Kompayak Porpramook, though, due to his division, is relatively obscure.
Stood at 5'8 and with a 71" reach the 27 year old Hernandez is a bit of a physical freak in the division though oddly he doesn't really use his size to box as much as he should. Although he certainly can box he often appears just was will to trade up inside as he does on the outside, though on the outside he is really good. Oddly the size of the champion may actually serve a bigger purpose in the fact that when he rehydrates he likely adds a significant amount of weight back on. This added weight likely helps Hernandez to break down his opponents.
With 2 stoppage loss on his records Hernandez can be hurt (though admittedly his most recent loss did have something to do with the ridiculous conditions the bout was fought in) though he can also hurt others, much, much easier than he get hurt.
Not too much is known about Cardoza. He's a 24 year old Nicaraguan who has been a professional since 2009. His record got off to a pretty bad start as he fell to 2-3 after 5 bouts though since then he has gone 13-1 with his only loss (a decision to Eliecer Quezada) being avenged in his most recent bout.
With 19 bouts behind him and just 98 rounds it's obvious that Cardoza is either a monster puncher or has been fighting most of his fights over the shorter distance, in this case it's the latter. In his 19 bouts he has fought just a single completed 10 round bout and is 1-1 in bouts that have gone beyond the 6th round. This does not bode well with him jumping in to title level for this bout.
For me I really don't see too much reasoning behind this bout. The only logical idea seems to be that Hernandez is trying to force the hand of Roman Gonzalez. Beating up on a Nicaraguan, like Cardoza, may help get Gonzalez (also a Nicaraguan) in to the ring. The bout is little more than a gimme for "El Confessor" who really should finish this when he wants.
Prediction-Hernandez TKO6
Hernandez, widely regarded as one of the top 3 or 4 at 108lbs really does seem to be taking part in what is little more than a stay busy defense here. The Mexican, who is now a 2-time champion, is genuinely one of the sports over-looked fighters. He's beaten a genuine who's who in the past 5 years including Rodel Mayol, Gilberto Keb Baas, Gideon Buthelez and Kompayak Porpramook, though, due to his division, is relatively obscure.
Stood at 5'8 and with a 71" reach the 27 year old Hernandez is a bit of a physical freak in the division though oddly he doesn't really use his size to box as much as he should. Although he certainly can box he often appears just was will to trade up inside as he does on the outside, though on the outside he is really good. Oddly the size of the champion may actually serve a bigger purpose in the fact that when he rehydrates he likely adds a significant amount of weight back on. This added weight likely helps Hernandez to break down his opponents.
With 2 stoppage loss on his records Hernandez can be hurt (though admittedly his most recent loss did have something to do with the ridiculous conditions the bout was fought in) though he can also hurt others, much, much easier than he get hurt.
Not too much is known about Cardoza. He's a 24 year old Nicaraguan who has been a professional since 2009. His record got off to a pretty bad start as he fell to 2-3 after 5 bouts though since then he has gone 13-1 with his only loss (a decision to Eliecer Quezada) being avenged in his most recent bout.
With 19 bouts behind him and just 98 rounds it's obvious that Cardoza is either a monster puncher or has been fighting most of his fights over the shorter distance, in this case it's the latter. In his 19 bouts he has fought just a single completed 10 round bout and is 1-1 in bouts that have gone beyond the 6th round. This does not bode well with him jumping in to title level for this bout.
For me I really don't see too much reasoning behind this bout. The only logical idea seems to be that Hernandez is trying to force the hand of Roman Gonzalez. Beating up on a Nicaraguan, like Cardoza, may help get Gonzalez (also a Nicaraguan) in to the ring. The bout is little more than a gimme for "El Confessor" who really should finish this when he wants.
Prediction-Hernandez TKO6
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