The Super Middleweight division is one that Britain has typically fared really well in with the likes of Joe Calzaghe, Nigel Benn, Chris Eubank, Robin Reid and Richie Woodhall amongst others. Despite the memorable names what really stands out were the all-British fights such as the battles between Benn, Eubank and the tragic Michael Watson.
This weekend promises another of those classic all-British Super Middleweight world title fights as the 36 year old Carl Froch (31-2, 22) fights the unbeaten George Groves (19-0, 15) in what will be Groves' first fight at the world level.
The fact this is Groves' first world title fight is a major point to me. Although obviously talented Groves is taking a massive step up in class moving from fighting the likes of Noe Gonzalez Alcoba and Baker Barakat, his last two opponents, to facing the likes of Froch. Yes they were effectively stay busy fights for Groves but Froch is by far the best fighter Groves has ever fought as a professional.
What Groves does have going for him is youth, he's only 25, speed and almost certainly better movement. Though when you're toughest fights are against James DeGale and Kevin Anderson it's fair to say that you've not really had the developmental fights to prepare you for a world level bout. I think this is crucial matter. Groves never went up against fringe level fighters such as Maxim Vlasov, Ezequiel Osvaldo Maderna or even someone like Dimitri Sartison and this could bite him on the backside.
The problem regarding Groves' "level" is that we've seen him hurt, cut and knocked down in the bouts he's already been involved in. Although he's come through the scares the fact he was in those struggles is a worry.
Another problem for Groves is that he has left long term trainer Adam Smith in recent weeks. Whilst this might not directly cause him problems it will certainly have been a distraction and something that could see Groves' attention not being on Froch.
With Groves not being a proven world level fighter it's fair to say that's not something that can be said about Froch. "The Cobra", as he is known, has fought in 10 successive world title bouts dating back to 2008 and met the very best in his division such as Andre Ward and Mikkel Kessler. That sort of experience is invaluable and despite being 36 Froch has that proven ability to operate at the top.
Although experienced Froch does have some issues himself. He is defensively suspect, his speed isn't as good as it once was and he does have miles on the clock. You don't fight 24 rounds with Mikkel Kessler with out taking some serious damage in return. Saying that however Froch has always proven to be very tough bother physically and mentally and although he may take a few shots he rarely seems to be really hurt.
As well as the experience and the toughness I also tend to think that Froch is the bigger puncher. Neither has proven to be genuinely destructive at this level, though Froch has stopped Lucien Bute which is better than Groves stopping the likes of Paul Smith (who lets be honest isn't even the best in his own family).
I don't want to sound like I'm trivialising the challenge of Groves but I honestly feel he won't trouble Froch. He'll try to outbox Froch for a round or two though by the third Froch will be walking him down and connecting with his own shots slowly but surely knocking lumps out of Groves' confidence and stopping him around the 8th round as Groves' lack of world class competition gets shown up to be the difference.
This'll be fun, but it won't be the classic we're all hoping for.
Prediction-Froch TKO8
Showing posts with label WBA Super Middleweight. Show all posts
Showing posts with label WBA Super Middleweight. Show all posts
Thursday, 21 November 2013
Friday, 15 November 2013
Andre Ward v Edwin Rodriguez
Although Floyd Mayweather Jr is widely regarded as the #1 pound-for-pound fighter on the planet many feel that his apparent heir to the throne is Andre Ward (26-0, 14). Ward, the #1 guy at Super Middleweight and the current WBA "super" champion, will look to show why he is so highly regarded this weekend as he returns from a very long lay off caused by injury.
Ward, defending the WBA title for the sixth time since taking it from Mikkel Kessler, will be fellow unbeaten Edwin Rodriguez (24-0, 16) a man who will be fighting in his first world title fight and his first fight against a world class fighter.
Although he has been inactive Ward is widely regarded as one of the world's most complete fighters. He has skills, defense, speed, better power than his record would indicate and the ability the really do it all. He can box with the best of them, he can trade inside when he needs to and although he's not a bang he hits cleanly enough to keep everyone honest. He really is, like him or not, a very complete boxer.
Whilst Ward is a complete fighter Rodriguez has his flaws, though on his flip-side he does his extra strengths. The key advantage Rodriguez has is that he's explosive puncher when he lets his hands go. That's not to say he's a monster puncher but his stoppage last time out over Denis Grachev was thoroughly impressive taking less than a round to take out the Russian.
At his best Rodriguez could be a nightmare for many contenders. His power, speed and offensive style will pose headaches to fighters. At his worst however he's frustrating and his fight with Ezequiel Osvaldo Maderna showed as much as the two men had a very ugly and unmemorable contest.
What Rodriguez really has in his favour here is that Ward has been out of the ring for more than a year. Questions regarding how much ring-rust and how it will effect Ward are certainly there to be answered. If Ward is just a smidge slower than usual then Rodriguez may be able to jump on Ward. Problem is if Ward isn't feeling the effects of the ring rust then this really could be a master-class of a defense from a man willing re-introduce himself to the boxing community in a big way.
Prediction-Ward UD12
Ward, defending the WBA title for the sixth time since taking it from Mikkel Kessler, will be fellow unbeaten Edwin Rodriguez (24-0, 16) a man who will be fighting in his first world title fight and his first fight against a world class fighter.
Although he has been inactive Ward is widely regarded as one of the world's most complete fighters. He has skills, defense, speed, better power than his record would indicate and the ability the really do it all. He can box with the best of them, he can trade inside when he needs to and although he's not a bang he hits cleanly enough to keep everyone honest. He really is, like him or not, a very complete boxer.
Whilst Ward is a complete fighter Rodriguez has his flaws, though on his flip-side he does his extra strengths. The key advantage Rodriguez has is that he's explosive puncher when he lets his hands go. That's not to say he's a monster puncher but his stoppage last time out over Denis Grachev was thoroughly impressive taking less than a round to take out the Russian.
At his best Rodriguez could be a nightmare for many contenders. His power, speed and offensive style will pose headaches to fighters. At his worst however he's frustrating and his fight with Ezequiel Osvaldo Maderna showed as much as the two men had a very ugly and unmemorable contest.
What Rodriguez really has in his favour here is that Ward has been out of the ring for more than a year. Questions regarding how much ring-rust and how it will effect Ward are certainly there to be answered. If Ward is just a smidge slower than usual then Rodriguez may be able to jump on Ward. Problem is if Ward isn't feeling the effects of the ring rust then this really could be a master-class of a defense from a man willing re-introduce himself to the boxing community in a big way.
Prediction-Ward UD12
Friday, 24 May 2013
Carl Froch v Mikkel Kessler II
In by far the biggest fight of the weekend Brit Carl Froch (30-2, 22) looks for revenge over Dane Mikkel Kessler (46-2, 35) in an IBF/WBA Super Middleweight title unification bout. The bout, live on Sky Box Office in the UK and other various channels around the world is unarguably to define the #2 Super Middleweight on the planet and also a rare chance to see 2 top fighters pitted against each other.
When the men first fought, just over 3 years ago, it was part of the "Super 6" and Kessler claimed a very competitive decision decision in his homeland in what was a fight of the year contender. Since then a rematch always looked likely to occur despite the men becoming close friends and now we are just a few hours from that long awaited rematch, this time taking place in Britain, the homeland of Froch.
Since the men first fought their careers have seemingly gone in opposite directions. For Kessler things have been a struggle due to injuries and long lay offs. He's recaptured a world title (the WBA belt) though it's a title that most view as a paper belt manufactured for little more than a sanctioning fee and he hasn't looked as sharp, or as destructive as he had been before the Froch fight. For Froch he has moved from strength to strength and whilst he suffered a set back to Andre Ward he did go on to beat Arthur Abraham and Lucien Bute. both in impressive fashion.
At his best Kessler is a very solid all-rounder. He has very impressive straight shots, a lovely body attack and is durable, though he can be made to look slow and doesn't look the same fighter when forced on to the back foot. If you allow Kessler to fight behind his jab he's very hard to beat and if you let him connect with his booming straight right he can take fighters out with just a single shot.
When people talk about Kessler they never speak about any outstanding single attribute, just that he's very good at almost everything. He does have his flaws, notably his lack of handspeed and relatively weak inside game though on the whole he is a very solid fighter.
At his best (and at his most confident) Froch is a destructive fighter who will bring the fight to anyone, take one to land one and have the belief in his power and chin to stop anyone. He has an excellent work rate, under-rated "pure boxing" and although he can be dragged in to someone elses fight (as he was with Kessler first time around) he tends to dictate the action.
Froch does have numerous flaws, notably his low hands and again relatively slow hands speed though other than Andre Ward no one has really made him pay for those too much (though Jermain Taylor almost managed to do it).
Kessler has had a tremendous career and really helped put Denmark on the boxing map in recent years. He is a 3-time WBA champion and a 1-time WBC champion who has recorded wins over Dingaan Thobela, Julio Cesar Green, Manny Siaca, Anthony Mundine, Eric Lucas, Markus Beyer, Librado Andrade and Brian Magee whilst suffering losses to Andre Ward and Joe Calzaghe, two of the divisions greatest.
Froch on the other hand has beaten the likes of Magee, Jean Pascal, Taylor, Andre Dirrell, Abraham, Glen Johnson and Bute whilst losing only to Kessler and Ward.
With both men now in their mid 30's this could well be the final big fight for one of them. Although Froch is technically the older man (at 35 years old to Kessler's 34 years) he is the younger man in terms of ring years with 16 fewer fights and 39 fewer rounds, this could well give him the slight edge in terms of what he has left.
For me, Froch has looked a much better fighter in his past 2 bouts whilst Kessler is showing signs of his long career, with that in mind I'm picking Froch, in fact I'm going one further and predicting that Froch will stop Kessler.
Prediction-Froch TKO 7
When the men first fought, just over 3 years ago, it was part of the "Super 6" and Kessler claimed a very competitive decision decision in his homeland in what was a fight of the year contender. Since then a rematch always looked likely to occur despite the men becoming close friends and now we are just a few hours from that long awaited rematch, this time taking place in Britain, the homeland of Froch.
Since the men first fought their careers have seemingly gone in opposite directions. For Kessler things have been a struggle due to injuries and long lay offs. He's recaptured a world title (the WBA belt) though it's a title that most view as a paper belt manufactured for little more than a sanctioning fee and he hasn't looked as sharp, or as destructive as he had been before the Froch fight. For Froch he has moved from strength to strength and whilst he suffered a set back to Andre Ward he did go on to beat Arthur Abraham and Lucien Bute. both in impressive fashion.
At his best Kessler is a very solid all-rounder. He has very impressive straight shots, a lovely body attack and is durable, though he can be made to look slow and doesn't look the same fighter when forced on to the back foot. If you allow Kessler to fight behind his jab he's very hard to beat and if you let him connect with his booming straight right he can take fighters out with just a single shot.
When people talk about Kessler they never speak about any outstanding single attribute, just that he's very good at almost everything. He does have his flaws, notably his lack of handspeed and relatively weak inside game though on the whole he is a very solid fighter.
At his best (and at his most confident) Froch is a destructive fighter who will bring the fight to anyone, take one to land one and have the belief in his power and chin to stop anyone. He has an excellent work rate, under-rated "pure boxing" and although he can be dragged in to someone elses fight (as he was with Kessler first time around) he tends to dictate the action.
Froch does have numerous flaws, notably his low hands and again relatively slow hands speed though other than Andre Ward no one has really made him pay for those too much (though Jermain Taylor almost managed to do it).
Kessler has had a tremendous career and really helped put Denmark on the boxing map in recent years. He is a 3-time WBA champion and a 1-time WBC champion who has recorded wins over Dingaan Thobela, Julio Cesar Green, Manny Siaca, Anthony Mundine, Eric Lucas, Markus Beyer, Librado Andrade and Brian Magee whilst suffering losses to Andre Ward and Joe Calzaghe, two of the divisions greatest.
Froch on the other hand has beaten the likes of Magee, Jean Pascal, Taylor, Andre Dirrell, Abraham, Glen Johnson and Bute whilst losing only to Kessler and Ward.
With both men now in their mid 30's this could well be the final big fight for one of them. Although Froch is technically the older man (at 35 years old to Kessler's 34 years) he is the younger man in terms of ring years with 16 fewer fights and 39 fewer rounds, this could well give him the slight edge in terms of what he has left.
For me, Froch has looked a much better fighter in his past 2 bouts whilst Kessler is showing signs of his long career, with that in mind I'm picking Froch, in fact I'm going one further and predicting that Froch will stop Kessler.
Prediction-Froch TKO 7
Friday, 7 December 2012
Brian Magee v Mikkel Kessler
Northern Irishman Brian Magee (36-4-1, 25) goes in to the Lion's Den this weekend as he attempts to defend his WBA Super Middleweight title in Denmark against great Dane Mikkel Kessler (45-2, 34). For Magee this is his big chance to really make a mark on the world stage, for Kessler however it's a chance to reclaim a world title at the weight where he really made his name. For us as fans it's a chance to see what Kessler has left in the tank after a long and hard career.
Although currently a world champion, Magee is one of a number of fighters out there who has one limitation that has kept them from the genuine world stage. Sadly he struggles to take a shot at the world level having been dropped 4 times in his first loss (UD loss to Robin Reid) and stopped by both Carl Froch and Lucien Bute. Despite this he has genuine talent as a boxer and gave both Froch and Reid a very, very tough fight.
At 37 years old I feel that this will be Magee's last major fight however it's not the first time I've thought that with his career looking over just 3 years ago after he claimed the British title then spent a year out of the ring. In the last 3 years however Magee has continued to plug away and scored a number of notable victories including a stoppage over Mads Larsen for the European title and a decision victory over Jaime Barboza for the interim WBA Super Middleweight title (which has now been upgraded).
Whilst it's fair to say that Magee's biggest fights have all been losing affairs, it's worth noting that he is 2-0 (2) in Denmark and he has the experience and ability to test anyone at the weight, especially if his opponent is losing a step as many feel Mikkel Kessler is doing. Sadly however for Magee, Kessler is something a bit tougher and hard hitting than Marsen and Rudy Markussen.
At 33 years old it's fair to say that Kessler is probably on the slide, though the likable "Viking Warrior" is someone who has all the tools to mix with the best in the division. He has genuine power, especially in his sledgehammer straight right hand which he can throw to the head and the body, he has a very solid all round game and whilst he doesn't do anything especially amazingly he doesn't have any major flaws. In fact it's fair to say that Kessler is just very good at everything and it takes a fighter with at least 1 superb trait to beat him, Andre Ward and Joe Calzaghe showed with their victories over him.
Although Kessler is a very tough fighter he was dropped last time out by American Allan Green, I believe it was the first time Kessler has been dropped, however that bout was for a Light Heavyweight bauble and Kessler did get himself back up to knock out Green. In fact interestingly Green did seem to hurt Kessler numerous times in the opening round, probably showing that Kessler has had plenty of miles on the clock, however Magee hasn't the power in my eyes to rock him.
Whilst Magee will likely put on a brave showing, I can't help but think Kessler's power and Magee's fragility against bangers will bring us to early end. The first straight right that Kessler lands will likely be the start of the end.
Prediction-Kessler TKO5
Although currently a world champion, Magee is one of a number of fighters out there who has one limitation that has kept them from the genuine world stage. Sadly he struggles to take a shot at the world level having been dropped 4 times in his first loss (UD loss to Robin Reid) and stopped by both Carl Froch and Lucien Bute. Despite this he has genuine talent as a boxer and gave both Froch and Reid a very, very tough fight.
At 37 years old I feel that this will be Magee's last major fight however it's not the first time I've thought that with his career looking over just 3 years ago after he claimed the British title then spent a year out of the ring. In the last 3 years however Magee has continued to plug away and scored a number of notable victories including a stoppage over Mads Larsen for the European title and a decision victory over Jaime Barboza for the interim WBA Super Middleweight title (which has now been upgraded).
Whilst it's fair to say that Magee's biggest fights have all been losing affairs, it's worth noting that he is 2-0 (2) in Denmark and he has the experience and ability to test anyone at the weight, especially if his opponent is losing a step as many feel Mikkel Kessler is doing. Sadly however for Magee, Kessler is something a bit tougher and hard hitting than Marsen and Rudy Markussen.
At 33 years old it's fair to say that Kessler is probably on the slide, though the likable "Viking Warrior" is someone who has all the tools to mix with the best in the division. He has genuine power, especially in his sledgehammer straight right hand which he can throw to the head and the body, he has a very solid all round game and whilst he doesn't do anything especially amazingly he doesn't have any major flaws. In fact it's fair to say that Kessler is just very good at everything and it takes a fighter with at least 1 superb trait to beat him, Andre Ward and Joe Calzaghe showed with their victories over him.
Although Kessler is a very tough fighter he was dropped last time out by American Allan Green, I believe it was the first time Kessler has been dropped, however that bout was for a Light Heavyweight bauble and Kessler did get himself back up to knock out Green. In fact interestingly Green did seem to hurt Kessler numerous times in the opening round, probably showing that Kessler has had plenty of miles on the clock, however Magee hasn't the power in my eyes to rock him.
Whilst Magee will likely put on a brave showing, I can't help but think Kessler's power and Magee's fragility against bangers will bring us to early end. The first straight right that Kessler lands will likely be the start of the end.
Prediction-Kessler TKO5
Tuesday, 4 September 2012
Andre Ward v Chad Dawson
Whilst many fights have excitement written all over them the upcoming Super Middleweight title bout between the WBC and WBA "super" champion Andre Ward (25-0, 13) and current WBC Light Heavyweight champion Chad Dawson (31-1-0-2, 17) really has "stinker" written all over it.
Despite being the current WBC Light Heavyweight champion Chad Dawson will be dropping 7lbs to challenge for the Super Middleweight titles, a decision that I personally feel he will regret, however it is an in-built excuse for a loss.
Dawson made his professional debut back in 2001 after having had a solid Amateur career which saw him defeating current WBA Light Heavyweight champion Beibut Shumenov and claiming a number of amateur medals (notably a Bronze at the 2000 World Junior Championships). As a professional he showed a lot of early promise and quickly raced to the WBC Youth World Middleweight title in a little over 2 years.
Over the following years Dawson continued to rise through the rankings not only defending his WBC Youth title at Middleweight but also claiming the WBO NABO Super Middleweight title before finally moving to Light Heavyweight in 2006. It was at 175lbs that the athletically built Dawson really excelled and in early 2007 he claimed the first world title of his professional career as he out pointed the then unbeaten Tomaz Adamek for the WBC world title.
As the WBC champion Dawson made 3 title defenses with the highlight of them being a controversial decision win over veteran Glen Johnson. Instead of facing his mandatory challenger Dawson gave up his WBC title to instead face the IBF champion Antonio Tarver. Against Tarver we saw Dawson looking sensational as he claimed his second professional title and further secured his claim as one of the elite fighters at 175lbs. It seemed as if Dawson was on his way to becoming a major name in the sport but sadly he wasted the following year by rematching both Tarver and Johnson as his career started to stand still. What made those bouts worse for Dawson was that he merely looked to be going through the motions and doing just enough to bag enough rounds to win.
Things went from bad to worse for Dawson as he suffered his first (and so far only) professional loss just over 2 years ago losing to the Canadian based Haitian Jean Pascal. Sadly Dawson again attempted to do just enough to steal rounds, this time however it failed and after a clash of heads in round 11 left Dawson with a nasty gash the bout was taken to the cards early with the decision favouring Pascal. It was hoped by many that the loss to Pascal would ignite the fire under Dawson however just 9 months later on Dawson's return he again looked like a fighter who didn't really want to fight.
Dawson eventually re-claimed the WBC Light Heavyweight by defeating the legendary Bernard Hopkins (who had dethroned Pascal) on the second of trying after their first bout ended in a bizarre no contest.
In terms of style Dawson is a true frustration to watch. He's quick, he's powerful, he moves very well and throws some of the most wonderful combinations seen in the higher weights sadly however he's incredibly lazy in the ring and often fights down to his opponents level rather than attempting to impose himself on the fight and dominate his opponent with his strengths. If a trainer to could force Dawson to listen to him and follow instructions then Dawson has the potential to be something very special. As well a being naturally blessed with amazing speed Dawson is also blessed with a huge wingspan and a 76" reach, something that he can, when he's switched on, use amazingly well with his straight shots, though again it's a case of actually getting him to throw punches.
Whilst Dawson has made his name at Light Heavyweight and will be coming down, Andre Ward has made his reputation in the Super Middleweight division where he stands as the divisions kingpin. Not only is Ward the WBA "super" and WBC champion at 168lbs but he was also the winner of the inaugural "Super 6 Boxing Classic", a competition that saw him defeating Carl Froch, Arthur Abraham and Mikkel Kessler.
Like Dawson, Ward first made his name in the amateur ranks, however as an Amateur Ward was much, much more decorated. Not only did he run up a record of 114-5, he was also undefeated in several years, a multi-time national champion and most notably an Olympic Gold Medal winner.
Having won Gold at the Athens Olympics Ward soon turned professional and debuted at the end of 2004 by fighting as a Middleweight. Over the first few years of his career Ward slowly climbed the rankings, often defeating more experienced professionals with out too much trouble, though he did struggle with journeyman Darnell Boone.
Since 2009 Ward has become a fixture at the top of the Super Middleweight division having scored notable wins over Edison Miranda, Mikkel Kessler, Allan Green, Sakio Bika, Arthur Abraham (who won the WBO Super Middleweight title just a few weeks ago) and Carl Froch. It was the win over Kessler, in November 2009 that really put Ward on the boxing map as he out fought, out slicked and thoroughly out-boxed the highly regarded Dane to claim the WBA "super" title. The win over Carl Froch in December 2011 saw Ward then adding the WBC title to his collection and further proving he was the top dog.
Ward is a very skilled operator who despite his poor KO record is incredibly strong, very quick (with his hands, feet and body movement), slippery both inside and outside and has an uncanny knack of rarely being caught clean. At distance his jab is excellent and disrupts the rhythm opponents whilst up close Ward works hard to both the body and head of opponents whilst neutralising opponents excellently. Whilst he's a hugely gifted boxer he can be rather dull to watch due to many of his bouts becoming mauls, however he does have the ability to dominate fights with ease.
Going into the fight the biggest question is how will the weight effect Dawson? He's looked massive at Light Heavyweight and many feel he has had to drain himself to make 175lbs the extra 7lbs may make a huge difference to Dawson's durability and stamina. If he can make the weight with out damaging himself he could be a serious threat with his speed and combinations. If he can't make the weight with out issues he could find himself in an incredibly difficult bout.
For Dawson to win he needs to hope that not only he can cope with the lower weight but that he get up for this fight and actually keep up a solid pace. His usual style of working in short bursts with his electric hand speed simply won't work here as Ward will be on him. Dawson will not only need to be busier than usual but will also have to use his reach advantage (around 5") to try and neutralise Ward's excellent jab and keep him at range. If (and that' a big "if") he can put his foot on the gas for more than 45 seconds a round and use his jab he could surprise Ward and make this a competitive bout. If however the weight issue effects Dawson's stamina negatively this could be a long and hard night for him.
For Ward the key is to get inside the reach of Dawson and whilst he may have a very good jab himself, Wards reach disadvantage will be very noticeable. Thankfully for Ward he often finds a way to slip punches as he tries to get inside an opponent and bully them up close where he is sensational. When he gets inside of Dawson the inside work will seriously pay dividends and I imagine Ward will work the body well up close which should not only test the stamina of Dawson but also help slow the fast hands of the taller man.
If Dawson can stay active with his jab and keep Ward at range this could be a very even bout, however I can't help but think that Ward, with his excellent defense and work up close will do enough secure a decision. This could be the toughest bout of Ward's career if (and only if) Dawson can actually let his hands go with some regularity, though it's much more likely that Dawson will do little more than flurry once or twice a round whilst Ward smothers and lands up close in an unexciting 12 maul.
Prediction-Ward by decision in a rather mundane affair that has promise but never really springs to life.
For gamblers-
Ward is the a favourite at around 4/11 whilst Dawson is priced as high as 3/1.
Despite being the current WBC Light Heavyweight champion Chad Dawson will be dropping 7lbs to challenge for the Super Middleweight titles, a decision that I personally feel he will regret, however it is an in-built excuse for a loss.
Dawson made his professional debut back in 2001 after having had a solid Amateur career which saw him defeating current WBA Light Heavyweight champion Beibut Shumenov and claiming a number of amateur medals (notably a Bronze at the 2000 World Junior Championships). As a professional he showed a lot of early promise and quickly raced to the WBC Youth World Middleweight title in a little over 2 years.
Over the following years Dawson continued to rise through the rankings not only defending his WBC Youth title at Middleweight but also claiming the WBO NABO Super Middleweight title before finally moving to Light Heavyweight in 2006. It was at 175lbs that the athletically built Dawson really excelled and in early 2007 he claimed the first world title of his professional career as he out pointed the then unbeaten Tomaz Adamek for the WBC world title.
As the WBC champion Dawson made 3 title defenses with the highlight of them being a controversial decision win over veteran Glen Johnson. Instead of facing his mandatory challenger Dawson gave up his WBC title to instead face the IBF champion Antonio Tarver. Against Tarver we saw Dawson looking sensational as he claimed his second professional title and further secured his claim as one of the elite fighters at 175lbs. It seemed as if Dawson was on his way to becoming a major name in the sport but sadly he wasted the following year by rematching both Tarver and Johnson as his career started to stand still. What made those bouts worse for Dawson was that he merely looked to be going through the motions and doing just enough to bag enough rounds to win.
Things went from bad to worse for Dawson as he suffered his first (and so far only) professional loss just over 2 years ago losing to the Canadian based Haitian Jean Pascal. Sadly Dawson again attempted to do just enough to steal rounds, this time however it failed and after a clash of heads in round 11 left Dawson with a nasty gash the bout was taken to the cards early with the decision favouring Pascal. It was hoped by many that the loss to Pascal would ignite the fire under Dawson however just 9 months later on Dawson's return he again looked like a fighter who didn't really want to fight.
Dawson eventually re-claimed the WBC Light Heavyweight by defeating the legendary Bernard Hopkins (who had dethroned Pascal) on the second of trying after their first bout ended in a bizarre no contest.
In terms of style Dawson is a true frustration to watch. He's quick, he's powerful, he moves very well and throws some of the most wonderful combinations seen in the higher weights sadly however he's incredibly lazy in the ring and often fights down to his opponents level rather than attempting to impose himself on the fight and dominate his opponent with his strengths. If a trainer to could force Dawson to listen to him and follow instructions then Dawson has the potential to be something very special. As well a being naturally blessed with amazing speed Dawson is also blessed with a huge wingspan and a 76" reach, something that he can, when he's switched on, use amazingly well with his straight shots, though again it's a case of actually getting him to throw punches.
Whilst Dawson has made his name at Light Heavyweight and will be coming down, Andre Ward has made his reputation in the Super Middleweight division where he stands as the divisions kingpin. Not only is Ward the WBA "super" and WBC champion at 168lbs but he was also the winner of the inaugural "Super 6 Boxing Classic", a competition that saw him defeating Carl Froch, Arthur Abraham and Mikkel Kessler.
Like Dawson, Ward first made his name in the amateur ranks, however as an Amateur Ward was much, much more decorated. Not only did he run up a record of 114-5, he was also undefeated in several years, a multi-time national champion and most notably an Olympic Gold Medal winner.
Having won Gold at the Athens Olympics Ward soon turned professional and debuted at the end of 2004 by fighting as a Middleweight. Over the first few years of his career Ward slowly climbed the rankings, often defeating more experienced professionals with out too much trouble, though he did struggle with journeyman Darnell Boone.
Since 2009 Ward has become a fixture at the top of the Super Middleweight division having scored notable wins over Edison Miranda, Mikkel Kessler, Allan Green, Sakio Bika, Arthur Abraham (who won the WBO Super Middleweight title just a few weeks ago) and Carl Froch. It was the win over Kessler, in November 2009 that really put Ward on the boxing map as he out fought, out slicked and thoroughly out-boxed the highly regarded Dane to claim the WBA "super" title. The win over Carl Froch in December 2011 saw Ward then adding the WBC title to his collection and further proving he was the top dog.
Ward is a very skilled operator who despite his poor KO record is incredibly strong, very quick (with his hands, feet and body movement), slippery both inside and outside and has an uncanny knack of rarely being caught clean. At distance his jab is excellent and disrupts the rhythm opponents whilst up close Ward works hard to both the body and head of opponents whilst neutralising opponents excellently. Whilst he's a hugely gifted boxer he can be rather dull to watch due to many of his bouts becoming mauls, however he does have the ability to dominate fights with ease.
Going into the fight the biggest question is how will the weight effect Dawson? He's looked massive at Light Heavyweight and many feel he has had to drain himself to make 175lbs the extra 7lbs may make a huge difference to Dawson's durability and stamina. If he can make the weight with out damaging himself he could be a serious threat with his speed and combinations. If he can't make the weight with out issues he could find himself in an incredibly difficult bout.
For Dawson to win he needs to hope that not only he can cope with the lower weight but that he get up for this fight and actually keep up a solid pace. His usual style of working in short bursts with his electric hand speed simply won't work here as Ward will be on him. Dawson will not only need to be busier than usual but will also have to use his reach advantage (around 5") to try and neutralise Ward's excellent jab and keep him at range. If (and that' a big "if") he can put his foot on the gas for more than 45 seconds a round and use his jab he could surprise Ward and make this a competitive bout. If however the weight issue effects Dawson's stamina negatively this could be a long and hard night for him.
For Ward the key is to get inside the reach of Dawson and whilst he may have a very good jab himself, Wards reach disadvantage will be very noticeable. Thankfully for Ward he often finds a way to slip punches as he tries to get inside an opponent and bully them up close where he is sensational. When he gets inside of Dawson the inside work will seriously pay dividends and I imagine Ward will work the body well up close which should not only test the stamina of Dawson but also help slow the fast hands of the taller man.
If Dawson can stay active with his jab and keep Ward at range this could be a very even bout, however I can't help but think that Ward, with his excellent defense and work up close will do enough secure a decision. This could be the toughest bout of Ward's career if (and only if) Dawson can actually let his hands go with some regularity, though it's much more likely that Dawson will do little more than flurry once or twice a round whilst Ward smothers and lands up close in an unexciting 12 maul.
Prediction-Ward by decision in a rather mundane affair that has promise but never really springs to life.
For gamblers-
Ward is the a favourite at around 4/11 whilst Dawson is priced as high as 3/1.
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