Saturday's only world title fight sees WBA Light Middleweight champion Austin Trout (25-0, 14) attempt to score the biggest victory of his career as he faces former 3-weight world champion Miguel Cotto (37-3, 30). Although Cotto will be the huge fan favourite going into this bout he is seen by some as being a fighter on the slide and a fighter who may well be ready to wave goodbye to the sport whilst Trout is certainly heading in the other direction.
Puerto Rican hero Miguel Cotto is a fighter who is hard to dislike. The 32 year old has genuinely faced everyone and anyone from Antonio Margarito to Zab Judah, Manny Pacquiao to Floyd Mayweather. In fact if anyone was to be critical the biggest problem with Cotto is that he faced too many tests and took too much punishment in a career that has seen him claim world titles in the Light Welterweight, Welterweight and Light Middleweight divisions.
At his most exciting Cotto was a come-forward, body beater who cracked hard, nasty hooks to the ribs of opponents, breaking them down round by round. Defensively he's never been the sharpest though Cotto has developed his style in recent years to be more than just an offensive body attacking machine and has added a very nice sharp jab to his repertoire. It's this jab that served him so well in his most recent fight, a decision loss to Floyd Mayweather Jr.
Although small for a Light Middleweight (5'7" and with a 67" reach) Cotto is often skilled enough to impose his fight on an opponent as he both uses controlled aggression and very under-rated foot work to work his angles and get inside a taller opponent. Sadly however we've seen him beaten down hard in the past by both Manny Pacquiao and Antonio Margarito, who both mentally and physically beat down Cotto (albeit Margarito did do it in a seriously controversial manner). The fact that those two men managed to really beat up Cotto does leave us wondering how much he can take, and although Mayweather didn't stop him, he looked like he could had he wished to.
At Light Middleweight Cotto's power isn't great despite being 3-1 (3) at the weight, his wins over Yuri Foreman, Ricardo Mayorga and Antonio Margarito really showed this. In fact all 3 of his stoppages at the weight have questions over them with Mayorga claiming a broken hand, Foreman damaging his leg and Margarito's damaged eye from his bout with Pacquiao, though his performance with Mayweather was still impressive.
Whilst Cotto, as mentioned, is seen as being on the slide, the 27 year old Trout is certainly seen as a fighter on his way up and despite being the champion is a betting under-dog. Whilst it's true that he isn't a big name in the sport, like Cotto or a number of Cotto's big name opponents he is still a hugely talented fighter who is fresh, confident and coming to make a real name for himself.
Southpaw Trout has slowly been making a name for himself with the hardcore fans since he turned professional way back in 2005 however it wasn't until 2011 that fans started to sit up and take notice as Trout bagged himself several notable victories. The most notable of those victories came in February 2011 as he out-pointed Rigoberto Alvarez (the older brother of Saul "Canelo" Alvarez) for the interim WBA Light Middleweight.
Since claiming the interim WBA Light Middleweight title, Trout has defended it 3 times, defeating David Lopez, Frank LoPorto and Delvin Rodriguez and barely losing a round in those three fights. Whilst he may not have been on killers row the victories over both Lopez and Rodriguez were still impressive and were worth taking note of, especially considering how good Rodriguez had looked in his bouts with Pawel Wolak.
Despite lacking the high level experience Trout has numerous advantages himself. Not only is he a fresher, younger fighter than Cotto but he is also a natural Light Middleweight and has notable size advantages over Cotto (stood over 2" taller and with a 5" reach advantage) both of which he will look to use to his advantage. This will likely see Trout using his right hand jab to keep Cotto at a safe distance and tie up Cotto at close, spoiling Cotto's work up close and neutralising Cotto's supposed power (which I actually don't think will be a factor here).
In terms of the fight, I'm going with the upset here. Like everyone I love Miguel Cotto though I can't help but feel that his age and hard career will be catching up with him as well as the weight. Cotto could still have one last hurrah, though I actually think that was the performance against Mayweather. Cotto's youth, speed and freshness will likely pay off here as he takes a competitive but clear decision.
Prediction-Trout by UD
Friday, 30 November 2012
Thursday, 29 November 2012
Joan Guzman v Khabib Allakhverdiev
The vacant WBA Light Welterweight title is up for grabs this coming Friday as unbeaten's collide with Domican Joan Guzman (33-0-1-1, 20) facing Russian Khabib Allakhverdiev (17-0, 8) in a very interesting match up.
Going in to this match up it's fair to suggest that Guzman is the favourite. He's a much more proven fighter and has shown real quality as he's claimed world titles at both Super Bantamweight and Super Featherweight, and was also close to claiming a world title at Lightweight. However the fact this bout is at Light Welterweight and Guzman is getting on does perhaps level the playing field somewhat.
At some 36 years old Guzman isn't a spring chicken any more. In his prime he was lightening quick fighter with hands, feet and his brain, he could make very good fighters look very silly as he did to Humberto Soto and Terdsak Kokietgym. Despite his ability however Guzman's problems lay with his attitude and he was lazy both in and out of the ring. Out of the ring this laziness showed as he missed numerous weigh-ins in fact shockingly he came in over 9lbs above the Lightweight limit in an IBF Lightweight title bout. however in the ring laziness has seen him almost losing several times.
I terms of natural skill Guzman is genuinely special. He had all the skill a fighter could wish for, he had the ability to unleash combinations that looked not only fluid but effortless and he could could box equally as well on the front foot and the back foot. It was little wonder that only a few years ago many were putting Guzman in their pound-for-pound lists. Though as mentioned his laziness has almost cost him with Ali Funeka and Jorge Rodrigo Barrios both coming close to taking Guzman's unbeaten record.
Also at Light Welterweight it needs to be said that Guzman's punch resistance may not be great and his power is very unlikely to be as hurtful as his record perhaps shows (he currently has a 57% KO rate as it is, so it's not hard to assume that some Light Welters would literally walk through him).
Whilst Guzman is well known by boxing fans, Russian Khabib Allakhverdiev is much more obscure despite having split his career between his native Russia and the USA (where he has surprisingly fought 8 times). The fact he has fought half his career in the US may well serve him well here.
Having been a professional since 2007 Allakhverdiev has swiftly but quietly risen up the rankings with both Ring (#6) and Boxrec (#8) ranking him highly. These rankings have been helped by a number of notable victories including a technical decision victory over Nate Campbell and stoppages over Ignacio Mendoza and Kaizer Mabuza, with the Mabuza victory being hugely impressive.
In terms of his style Allakhverdiev doesn't have the typical straight up Russian style that you may expect. He's got notable signs of his US based early career with a lot of movement, and some vicious body work, though appears to be a fighter who whilst skilled can be made to miss and a good skilled fighter would likely be able to make him pay for his defensive issues. However he hits a lot harder than his record shows and when he turns it on he is very fun to watch. In fact it's genuinely shocking that his KO rate is less than 50% with his power and aggression.
In terms of the actual bout, this really is an issue of just how much does Guzman have left in the tank? If Guzman is half the fighter he once was, he really could do a number on Allakhverdiev's jaw with sharp accurate counters, however if the former Super Bantamweight gets caught by Allakhverdiev's straight left hand he could well be in a world of pain, and with Guzman's age and slowing reactions that is a real possibility.
I'm guessing that Guzman just has enough to take this, but I do expect him to be in real problems at times as Allakhverdiev simply imposes himself for sections of the bout.
Prediction-Guzman Decision.
Going in to this match up it's fair to suggest that Guzman is the favourite. He's a much more proven fighter and has shown real quality as he's claimed world titles at both Super Bantamweight and Super Featherweight, and was also close to claiming a world title at Lightweight. However the fact this bout is at Light Welterweight and Guzman is getting on does perhaps level the playing field somewhat.
At some 36 years old Guzman isn't a spring chicken any more. In his prime he was lightening quick fighter with hands, feet and his brain, he could make very good fighters look very silly as he did to Humberto Soto and Terdsak Kokietgym. Despite his ability however Guzman's problems lay with his attitude and he was lazy both in and out of the ring. Out of the ring this laziness showed as he missed numerous weigh-ins in fact shockingly he came in over 9lbs above the Lightweight limit in an IBF Lightweight title bout. however in the ring laziness has seen him almost losing several times.
I terms of natural skill Guzman is genuinely special. He had all the skill a fighter could wish for, he had the ability to unleash combinations that looked not only fluid but effortless and he could could box equally as well on the front foot and the back foot. It was little wonder that only a few years ago many were putting Guzman in their pound-for-pound lists. Though as mentioned his laziness has almost cost him with Ali Funeka and Jorge Rodrigo Barrios both coming close to taking Guzman's unbeaten record.
Also at Light Welterweight it needs to be said that Guzman's punch resistance may not be great and his power is very unlikely to be as hurtful as his record perhaps shows (he currently has a 57% KO rate as it is, so it's not hard to assume that some Light Welters would literally walk through him).
Whilst Guzman is well known by boxing fans, Russian Khabib Allakhverdiev is much more obscure despite having split his career between his native Russia and the USA (where he has surprisingly fought 8 times). The fact he has fought half his career in the US may well serve him well here.
Having been a professional since 2007 Allakhverdiev has swiftly but quietly risen up the rankings with both Ring (#6) and Boxrec (#8) ranking him highly. These rankings have been helped by a number of notable victories including a technical decision victory over Nate Campbell and stoppages over Ignacio Mendoza and Kaizer Mabuza, with the Mabuza victory being hugely impressive.
In terms of his style Allakhverdiev doesn't have the typical straight up Russian style that you may expect. He's got notable signs of his US based early career with a lot of movement, and some vicious body work, though appears to be a fighter who whilst skilled can be made to miss and a good skilled fighter would likely be able to make him pay for his defensive issues. However he hits a lot harder than his record shows and when he turns it on he is very fun to watch. In fact it's genuinely shocking that his KO rate is less than 50% with his power and aggression.
In terms of the actual bout, this really is an issue of just how much does Guzman have left in the tank? If Guzman is half the fighter he once was, he really could do a number on Allakhverdiev's jaw with sharp accurate counters, however if the former Super Bantamweight gets caught by Allakhverdiev's straight left hand he could well be in a world of pain, and with Guzman's age and slowing reactions that is a real possibility.
I'm guessing that Guzman just has enough to take this, but I do expect him to be in real problems at times as Allakhverdiev simply imposes himself for sections of the bout.
Prediction-Guzman Decision.
Friday, 23 November 2012
Rendall Munroe v Scott Quigg
The "interim" WBA Super Bantamweight title is up for grabs on the undercard of Hatton v Senchenko as the unbeaten Scott Quigg (24-0-1, 17) rematches Rendall Munroe (24-2-1, 10). When these two men first met, some 5 months ago, their bout ended in disappointing fashion as Munroe, who was leading on 2 of the scorecards, suffered a nasty cut from a clash of heads causing a premature end to the bout in round 3.
Bury based banger Scott Quigg is the favourite going in to this bout, though many have been picking Munroe, due to the fact that Quigg isn't as good as the hype that surrounded him. Despite being a professional for 5 years Quigg has only really been fighting domestic opponents and although they were generally good domestic opponents, such as Jason Booth and Jamie Arthur neither were near world level when Quigg got to them. Worryingly however Arthur almost shocked Quigg and did drop the unbeaten man early in their fight.
Although powerful Quigg's boxing ability is very limited and he often makes very obvious mistakes with not only his defense but also his footwork, an issue from the fact that Quigg has come to boxing from a kick boxing background. So far many of his opponents have been unable to take advantage of those mistakes however Munroe did manage some very notable success when the two men first met. Despite this however Quigg, at distance, can be very effective with his power and natural size (he stands at a shocking 5'8"-huge for a Super Bantamweight).
Whilst Quigg has only mixed with domestic opponents, Munroe is much more experienced at the higher levels having scored victories over Kiko Martinez (twice), Simone Maludrottu and Victor Terrazas as well as losing in a 2010 WBC title tilt against Toshiaki Nishioka. As well as the experience edge he also has the better engine, and the more rounded package of skills, especially up close. However Munroe does have issues himself, notably that he's a slow starter, who often needs 3 or 4 rounds to really get going and that he's also not got fight changing power, instead needing to grind down opponents. However the biggest issue with Munroe is that he's 32 and has fought only 4 rounds in the last 14 months.
With this fight the big question is whether or not Quigg has the power and skills to keep Munroe off him. If Munroe is allowed to enforce his fight, set a high pace and work Quigg's body this could be a very hard night for the unbeaten fighter, however if Quigg can control the distance with his size and straight shots, something he tried in the first bout with mixed success, he could make this bout seem very easy.
For me I feel that Quigg will get the close rounds and just manage to nick a close decision, though at 12/5 I'll be having a small bet on Munroe hoping that his work rate will be rewarded on the score cards.
Prediction-Quigg Split Decision
Bury based banger Scott Quigg is the favourite going in to this bout, though many have been picking Munroe, due to the fact that Quigg isn't as good as the hype that surrounded him. Despite being a professional for 5 years Quigg has only really been fighting domestic opponents and although they were generally good domestic opponents, such as Jason Booth and Jamie Arthur neither were near world level when Quigg got to them. Worryingly however Arthur almost shocked Quigg and did drop the unbeaten man early in their fight.
Although powerful Quigg's boxing ability is very limited and he often makes very obvious mistakes with not only his defense but also his footwork, an issue from the fact that Quigg has come to boxing from a kick boxing background. So far many of his opponents have been unable to take advantage of those mistakes however Munroe did manage some very notable success when the two men first met. Despite this however Quigg, at distance, can be very effective with his power and natural size (he stands at a shocking 5'8"-huge for a Super Bantamweight).
Whilst Quigg has only mixed with domestic opponents, Munroe is much more experienced at the higher levels having scored victories over Kiko Martinez (twice), Simone Maludrottu and Victor Terrazas as well as losing in a 2010 WBC title tilt against Toshiaki Nishioka. As well as the experience edge he also has the better engine, and the more rounded package of skills, especially up close. However Munroe does have issues himself, notably that he's a slow starter, who often needs 3 or 4 rounds to really get going and that he's also not got fight changing power, instead needing to grind down opponents. However the biggest issue with Munroe is that he's 32 and has fought only 4 rounds in the last 14 months.
With this fight the big question is whether or not Quigg has the power and skills to keep Munroe off him. If Munroe is allowed to enforce his fight, set a high pace and work Quigg's body this could be a very hard night for the unbeaten fighter, however if Quigg can control the distance with his size and straight shots, something he tried in the first bout with mixed success, he could make this bout seem very easy.
For me I feel that Quigg will get the close rounds and just manage to nick a close decision, though at 12/5 I'll be having a small bet on Munroe hoping that his work rate will be rewarded on the score cards.
Prediction-Quigg Split Decision
Martin Murray v Jorge Navarro
With Ricky Hatton's big comeback fight against Vyacheslav Senchenko it'd be fair to assume that Hatton Promotions would have done things on the cheap, instead however they have 2 "world" titles. The most one sided of those, at least on paper, sees the talented Martin Murray (24-0-1, 10) facing Venezuelan Jorge Navarro (12-0, 10) for the WBA "interim" Middleweight title.
Sadly this fight looks a bit like a mismatch because not much is really known about Navarro, who, to say the least, is unknown. Despite his perfect record he hasn't really faced anyone of note, in fact his best opponent so far is Costa Rican Jaime Barboza, this makes it hard to gauge just how good he is. Worryingly however we do know that he was dropped by hard hitting journeyman Jhonatan Ricar. Whilst Ricar can hit hard he is limited and shouldn't have the type of skill to connect on a world class fighter.
As worrying as his competition, Navarro hasn't a great deal of experience. In fact he's only got 31 rounds of professional experience with 11 of those coming against Barboza and only 3 of his 12 fights have gone 3 or more rounds. As well as his inexperience as a fighter, he is also inexperienced at fighting abroad and so far has never fought outside of Latin America (with 10 fights in Panama and 2 in his native Venezuela).
Whilst Navarro is a bit of a mystery man, Englishman Martin Murray is generally considered to be one of the top 10 or so Middleweights in the world with rankings from Ring Magazine (#8) and Boxrec (#10) to back this up. Whilst Murray himself hasn't scored any massive wins, he was unlucky last year, in his most notable bout so far to only draw with German Felix Sturm.
As well as the result against Sturm, Murray holds notable victories over the likes of Carlos Nascimento, Shalva Jomardashvili and Siarhei Khomitski. All much more proven, and higher quality opponents than anyone Navarro has faced so far. With this in mind it's hard to see anything but a victory for Murray.
Although Murray's record doesn't show it, he's a hard working fighter who throws a solid amount of leather with a hurtful dig. His shots aren't concussive but they are nasty, especially to the body which I expect will be the key here as he looks to attack Navarro's body early on and drag the visitor in to the middle rounds before forcing a stoppage.
Prediction-Murray TKO7
Sadly this fight looks a bit like a mismatch because not much is really known about Navarro, who, to say the least, is unknown. Despite his perfect record he hasn't really faced anyone of note, in fact his best opponent so far is Costa Rican Jaime Barboza, this makes it hard to gauge just how good he is. Worryingly however we do know that he was dropped by hard hitting journeyman Jhonatan Ricar. Whilst Ricar can hit hard he is limited and shouldn't have the type of skill to connect on a world class fighter.
As worrying as his competition, Navarro hasn't a great deal of experience. In fact he's only got 31 rounds of professional experience with 11 of those coming against Barboza and only 3 of his 12 fights have gone 3 or more rounds. As well as his inexperience as a fighter, he is also inexperienced at fighting abroad and so far has never fought outside of Latin America (with 10 fights in Panama and 2 in his native Venezuela).
Whilst Navarro is a bit of a mystery man, Englishman Martin Murray is generally considered to be one of the top 10 or so Middleweights in the world with rankings from Ring Magazine (#8) and Boxrec (#10) to back this up. Whilst Murray himself hasn't scored any massive wins, he was unlucky last year, in his most notable bout so far to only draw with German Felix Sturm.
As well as the result against Sturm, Murray holds notable victories over the likes of Carlos Nascimento, Shalva Jomardashvili and Siarhei Khomitski. All much more proven, and higher quality opponents than anyone Navarro has faced so far. With this in mind it's hard to see anything but a victory for Murray.
Although Murray's record doesn't show it, he's a hard working fighter who throws a solid amount of leather with a hurtful dig. His shots aren't concussive but they are nasty, especially to the body which I expect will be the key here as he looks to attack Navarro's body early on and drag the visitor in to the middle rounds before forcing a stoppage.
Prediction-Murray TKO7
Thursday, 22 November 2012
Xiong Zhao Zhong v Javier Martinez Resendiz
This coming weekend marks an historic occasion in the boxing world as we will see the first ever world champion, at any weight, to be crowned in China as local favourite Xiong Zhao Zhong (19-4-1, 11) faces Mexican Javier Martinez Resendiz (13-3-2, 6) in a bout for the vacant WBC Minimumweight title. In fact it may well be fair to say that this is the biggest professional boxing contest to have ever taken place in China.
For Xiong, it's fair to say the pressure is really on his shoulders. At 30 years old Xiong may never get another chance to claim a world title, especially not in his homeland. Saying that however Xiong has fought at the world level before losing a close and competitive decision to Daisuke Naito for the WBC Flyweight title back in 2009.
Sadly despite being China's most famous professional boxer, Zhong is really not that good, certainly not matching his amateur counter-parts (such as Zou Shiming, Zhang Xiaoping and Zhang Zhilei). He's a decent fighter with out a doubt and has a solid punch on him, though his WBC "Silver" Light Flyweight title appears to be little more than a political move by the WBC to move into China's untapped market.
Zhong may have an issue here. Despite standing at a diminutive 4'11" he has never, to my knowledge, weighed inside the 105lbs Minimumweight limit and has actually been as high as 113lbs when he faced Japanese fighter Takuya Kogawa. If he can make 105lbs he could be a real handful, especially if he's 90% of the fighter he was when he faced faced both Naito and Kogawa (he gave both men a very hard time).
Zhong's co-challenger, Mexican, Resendiz is almost certainly being seen as a sacrificial lamb by the WBC however I wouldn't be surprised if Resendiz can upset the proverbial applecart. Firstly, as mentioned, Zhong isn't really that good. Just two fights ago Zhong was upset by Japanese Flyweight Shin Ono (14-5-2, 2) who had gone 2-3-2 going in to the fight.
Not only is Zhong not very good, but Resendiz is a tough fighter who hasn't been stopped in 18 fights so far, including a 10 rounder with current "interim" WBA World Minimumweight champion Jesus Silvestre. If Zhong can't dent him there is every chance that Resendiz can make him look as average as he is.
For me, being frankly honest, I think Resendiz will need a knock out to score a draw. This is the big "coming out party" of professional Chinese boxing and it'd take something shocking to happen for someone to piss on Jose Sulaiman's parade. I expect the fight to be close, even controversial but I simply do not see Zhong being denied if it goes to the cards.
Prediction-Zhong SD
For Xiong, it's fair to say the pressure is really on his shoulders. At 30 years old Xiong may never get another chance to claim a world title, especially not in his homeland. Saying that however Xiong has fought at the world level before losing a close and competitive decision to Daisuke Naito for the WBC Flyweight title back in 2009.
Sadly despite being China's most famous professional boxer, Zhong is really not that good, certainly not matching his amateur counter-parts (such as Zou Shiming, Zhang Xiaoping and Zhang Zhilei). He's a decent fighter with out a doubt and has a solid punch on him, though his WBC "Silver" Light Flyweight title appears to be little more than a political move by the WBC to move into China's untapped market.
Zhong may have an issue here. Despite standing at a diminutive 4'11" he has never, to my knowledge, weighed inside the 105lbs Minimumweight limit and has actually been as high as 113lbs when he faced Japanese fighter Takuya Kogawa. If he can make 105lbs he could be a real handful, especially if he's 90% of the fighter he was when he faced faced both Naito and Kogawa (he gave both men a very hard time).
Zhong's co-challenger, Mexican, Resendiz is almost certainly being seen as a sacrificial lamb by the WBC however I wouldn't be surprised if Resendiz can upset the proverbial applecart. Firstly, as mentioned, Zhong isn't really that good. Just two fights ago Zhong was upset by Japanese Flyweight Shin Ono (14-5-2, 2) who had gone 2-3-2 going in to the fight.
Not only is Zhong not very good, but Resendiz is a tough fighter who hasn't been stopped in 18 fights so far, including a 10 rounder with current "interim" WBA World Minimumweight champion Jesus Silvestre. If Zhong can't dent him there is every chance that Resendiz can make him look as average as he is.
For me, being frankly honest, I think Resendiz will need a knock out to score a draw. This is the big "coming out party" of professional Chinese boxing and it'd take something shocking to happen for someone to piss on Jose Sulaiman's parade. I expect the fight to be close, even controversial but I simply do not see Zhong being denied if it goes to the cards.
Prediction-Zhong SD
Robert Guerrero v Andre Berto
This weekend Mexican American Robert Guerrero (30-1-1-2, 18) will be hoping to make the first defense of his WBC "interim" Welterweight title as he faces former champion Andre Berto (28-1, 22) in an interesting match up that will see both men asked a lot of questions.
Guerrero, 29, claimed the title just 4 months ago as he claimed a competitive but clear decision over Turkish hard hitter Selcuk Aydin and will now look to prove that he is one of the top dogs at 147lbs having moved up swiftly in recent years. In just 5 years we've seen Guerrero moving from Featherweight (where he was a 2-time IBF champion) all the way up to Welterweight, claiming some form of title at both Super Featherweight and Lightweight on his way up.
Although the champion is a relatively big guy for the weight at 5'8" and with a 70" reach he's certainly not a big guy in terms of power having failed to stop anyone of note above 130lbs (with his last notable stoppages come way back down at 126lbs). As well as his questionable power at Welterweight some also question Guerrero's durability at the weight. Whilst it's true that he has never been stopped in his 34 fight career he has been dropped and hurt, and seemed really hurt late in his fight against Aydin.
Whilst I'm certainly not sure of Guerrero's ability to match the best physically at Welterweight he certainly isn't with out his own positives. Firstly Guerrero is a very talented boxer, he's very good at using his reach and and getting off with his jab though his real asset is is work rate and speed, especially hand speed. Against Aydin, Guerrero looked lightening quick, especially early on as he landed combinations at will, and his boxing ability really looked to be a class or two better than the Turk.
Whilst I have a lot of questions about Guerrero's toughness and power at Welterweight, I have more questions about Andre Berto. Berto, a former IBF and WBC champion at Welterweight returns to the ring for the first time in over a year after failing a drugs test in preparation for a rematch with Victor Ortiz, the only man thus far to have defeated him. The questions about Berto are not just what will he be like after a year out, but also what mental questions are over his head following his failed drugs test?
Prior to the ban Berto was an exciting, though somewhat limited fighter. He was an explosive combination puncher who could unleash 5 or 6 punch combinations in a heart beat and although he often looked like he could be out boxed no one managed it, and it only took a gutsy performance by Ortiz back in April 2011 to decrown him in an hallacious war.
Despite being a career Welterweight, Berto is actually only a shade taller (1/2") than Guerrero and only has a minor reach advantage(also 1/2") and due to his love of throwing hooks Berto may actually leave him self to be out boxed at range despite having the longer reach. However if the bout takes place up close, Berto's explosiveness will be the difference maker.
The odds on this fight are very interesting with Berto a slight favourite (4/5) and I'd agree with that. There is a lot of questions over his return however if he is anything like the fighter he once was, I'd snap your hand off for Berto by T/KO as his power and speed are a big step up from Aydin's. If Berto has lingering issues however Guerrero could outbox him to a decision.
Prediction-Berto TKO7
Guerrero, 29, claimed the title just 4 months ago as he claimed a competitive but clear decision over Turkish hard hitter Selcuk Aydin and will now look to prove that he is one of the top dogs at 147lbs having moved up swiftly in recent years. In just 5 years we've seen Guerrero moving from Featherweight (where he was a 2-time IBF champion) all the way up to Welterweight, claiming some form of title at both Super Featherweight and Lightweight on his way up.
Although the champion is a relatively big guy for the weight at 5'8" and with a 70" reach he's certainly not a big guy in terms of power having failed to stop anyone of note above 130lbs (with his last notable stoppages come way back down at 126lbs). As well as his questionable power at Welterweight some also question Guerrero's durability at the weight. Whilst it's true that he has never been stopped in his 34 fight career he has been dropped and hurt, and seemed really hurt late in his fight against Aydin.
Whilst I'm certainly not sure of Guerrero's ability to match the best physically at Welterweight he certainly isn't with out his own positives. Firstly Guerrero is a very talented boxer, he's very good at using his reach and and getting off with his jab though his real asset is is work rate and speed, especially hand speed. Against Aydin, Guerrero looked lightening quick, especially early on as he landed combinations at will, and his boxing ability really looked to be a class or two better than the Turk.
Whilst I have a lot of questions about Guerrero's toughness and power at Welterweight, I have more questions about Andre Berto. Berto, a former IBF and WBC champion at Welterweight returns to the ring for the first time in over a year after failing a drugs test in preparation for a rematch with Victor Ortiz, the only man thus far to have defeated him. The questions about Berto are not just what will he be like after a year out, but also what mental questions are over his head following his failed drugs test?
Prior to the ban Berto was an exciting, though somewhat limited fighter. He was an explosive combination puncher who could unleash 5 or 6 punch combinations in a heart beat and although he often looked like he could be out boxed no one managed it, and it only took a gutsy performance by Ortiz back in April 2011 to decrown him in an hallacious war.
Despite being a career Welterweight, Berto is actually only a shade taller (1/2") than Guerrero and only has a minor reach advantage(also 1/2") and due to his love of throwing hooks Berto may actually leave him self to be out boxed at range despite having the longer reach. However if the bout takes place up close, Berto's explosiveness will be the difference maker.
The odds on this fight are very interesting with Berto a slight favourite (4/5) and I'd agree with that. There is a lot of questions over his return however if he is anything like the fighter he once was, I'd snap your hand off for Berto by T/KO as his power and speed are a big step up from Aydin's. If Berto has lingering issues however Guerrero could outbox him to a decision.
Prediction-Berto TKO7
Saturday, 17 November 2012
Brian Viloria v Hernan Marquez
In the stand out match up of the weekend, if not the year, WBO Flyweight champion Brian Viloria (31-3-0-2, 18) faces hard hitting WBA Flyweight champion Hernan "Tyson" Marquez (34-2, 25) in a bout that oozes with quality on paper and in the mind. Whilst this may not be a high-profile mega fight in terms of the wider public, for boxing fans like myself this is something special, a real hardcore fans wet dream.
2000 US Olympian Brian Viloria has long been one of the sports most under-rated fighter. Aged 31 he knows that a loss now can derail a career that he has tried hard to rebuild after numerous set backs. Those setbacks however have helped develop the fighter that Viloria has become, they've helped cut out the mistakes, and issues that plagued Viloria through out his career and have genuinely helped him to become one of the premier fighters in the sport.
Viloria turned professional in 2001 after competing in the 2000 Olympic Games. Although Viloria failed to medal in the Games he had proven himself to be a top level amateur having won the World Amateur Championships in 1999. Since turning professional he has become one of the most exciting men in the little divisions with the ability to both bang and to box. Sadly however it's the fact he can do both which had been his issue as he's often found himself stuck between the two mindsets as opposed to showing off his skills at one, or the other.
Throughout his 11 year career Viloria has genuine been there done that. He has faced multiple current, former or future world champions. Those included two fights with Alberto Rossel (going 1-0-0-1 against Rossel) and one with Gilberto Keb Baas (going 1-0) as Viloria was climbing the rankings on the way to claiming his first world title in 2005 when he stopped Eric Ortiz for the WBC Light Flyweight title.
Sadly for Viloria his first title reign was short lived and after successfully defending his title once, out pointing Jose Antonio Aguirre, he would suffer his first loss being out-pointed by Omar Nino Romero. This loss started a dark part for Viloria who struggled in a rematch with Romero (a bout that was declared a no-contest after Romero failed a drugs test) and lost to Edgar Sosa. Those results saw Viloria going from unbeaten to 19-2-0-2 and a fighter who really was having major questions asked about how good he was.
Rather than sulking, Viloria took a step away from the big stage and fought in number of confidence building bouts, disappearing from the world stage for 2 years before reclaiming a world title by stopping Ulises Solis in 11 rounds. Again however, Viloria's reign as champion came to an untimely end as he lost in his second defense, being stopped by Carlos Tamara in the final round. This bout saw Viloria being left with a lot of questions as he appeared to blow his load and was clearly exhausted in the championship rounds prior to being stopped.
Since the loss to Tamara, Viloria has tried to correct his flaws. He's no-longer a fighter who can't choose what to do, he's instead molded the features of his game together. He's become a boxer-puncher, a fighter who can move and hit, but moves and hits hard. He no longer blows himself out, instead picking his shots carefully. This slight change in style has seen Viloria claiming the WBO Flyweight title and picking up wins over Julio Cesar Miranda (UD12), Giovani Segura (TKO8) and Omar Nino Romero (TKO9) as he goes into this bout with Marquez.
Although questions remain about Viloria's stamina, especially late on, he appears to have slowed down slightly in recent bouts, using better ring control and a more controlled pace to win bouts. He no longer goes for broke when he has an opponent hurt, something he did in the past and instead boxes to find opportunities to land his power shots. Despite his record, suggesting he's only an average puncher, Viloria hits hard, he hits clean and he can hurt anyone in the Flyweight division, though the big question is whether or not he can do it if forced to fight at a high tempo.
Of course this fight isn't all about Viloria but also about WBA champion Hernan Marquez. Hailing from Mexico, the Southpaw, known as "Tyson" is also a fighter who has come back from adversity and losses to build up a real reputation as one of the monsters of the lighter divisions.
Aged just 24, Marquez has a lot of time to come back from a loss, however he'll not be thinking about that going going in to this fight. Instead the hard hitting and thoroughly exciting youngster will be thinking that this is his opportunity to make a real name for himself. Despite his age, Marquez has been a professional for over 7 years and is hugely experienced for someone so young with 161 rounds behind and the same amount of fights as Viloria has (though Viloria does have many, many more rounds under his belt).
Marquez started his career with 27 straight wins, albeit it mostly against limited opposition, before losing twice in 2010. The first of those loses, a minor upset, came against Filipino Richie Mepranum who was simply too active for an off colour Marquez who was fighting outside of his native Mexico for the first time. Just months later Marquez would lose again, this time being stopped by Nonito Donaire, again outside of his homeland in a WBA "interim" world title bout at Super Flyweight.
Since those two losses Marquez has rebuilt his career well running up 7 successive wins, including his first outside of Mexico, where he beat Luis Concepcion for the WBA Flyweight title in a real tear up. As well as defending his title twice (stopping Luis Concepcion again and stopping Edrin Dapudong) Marquez has also earned revenge over Richie Mepranum in those recent wins.
In terms of his style Marquez is a warrior with a nasty mean streak and really hurtful power. He is not only a hard hitting brawler but he is actually an under-rated boxer who has a solid defense and when he gets tagged he knows how to fight back, as he showed in the first bout with Concepcion. He can fight at a high pace if needed and will certainly look to dictate the pace against Viloria however he may not be able to ask the questions about Viloria's stamina with the fact he himself, has never been 12 rounds. Going into this bout, Marquez will certainly feel like he's the puncher and will want to set off at a high pace trying to force the bout into a war from the off, if he can do this he may feel he can break down Viloria.
On paper this is a bit of a brawler v boxer type of match up. Sure both men are very talented and both can bang but though it's a matter of who can control the pace and distance of the bout. If Marquez can make it a war early on he may face his chances of breaking down Viloria as he did to Concepcion in their first bout. In fact if Marquez can force Viloria to fight at a high tempo he could even come on strong and copy what Carlos Tamara did to Viloria. If instead Viloria can control the distance and fight at a slower, more controlled pace he should be able to take a clear decision. Wonderfully however their is a third option, and the option that I think many fans are hoping for, both guys will meet each other in the centre of the ring and unload on each other in a test of intestinal fortitude. If we get the third option, well, anything could happen.
I tend to feel that Viloria's superior boxing will be the difference here, but don't expect him to win with out at least a few hairy moments.
Prediction-Viloria UD
2000 US Olympian Brian Viloria has long been one of the sports most under-rated fighter. Aged 31 he knows that a loss now can derail a career that he has tried hard to rebuild after numerous set backs. Those setbacks however have helped develop the fighter that Viloria has become, they've helped cut out the mistakes, and issues that plagued Viloria through out his career and have genuinely helped him to become one of the premier fighters in the sport.
Viloria turned professional in 2001 after competing in the 2000 Olympic Games. Although Viloria failed to medal in the Games he had proven himself to be a top level amateur having won the World Amateur Championships in 1999. Since turning professional he has become one of the most exciting men in the little divisions with the ability to both bang and to box. Sadly however it's the fact he can do both which had been his issue as he's often found himself stuck between the two mindsets as opposed to showing off his skills at one, or the other.
Throughout his 11 year career Viloria has genuine been there done that. He has faced multiple current, former or future world champions. Those included two fights with Alberto Rossel (going 1-0-0-1 against Rossel) and one with Gilberto Keb Baas (going 1-0) as Viloria was climbing the rankings on the way to claiming his first world title in 2005 when he stopped Eric Ortiz for the WBC Light Flyweight title.
Sadly for Viloria his first title reign was short lived and after successfully defending his title once, out pointing Jose Antonio Aguirre, he would suffer his first loss being out-pointed by Omar Nino Romero. This loss started a dark part for Viloria who struggled in a rematch with Romero (a bout that was declared a no-contest after Romero failed a drugs test) and lost to Edgar Sosa. Those results saw Viloria going from unbeaten to 19-2-0-2 and a fighter who really was having major questions asked about how good he was.
Rather than sulking, Viloria took a step away from the big stage and fought in number of confidence building bouts, disappearing from the world stage for 2 years before reclaiming a world title by stopping Ulises Solis in 11 rounds. Again however, Viloria's reign as champion came to an untimely end as he lost in his second defense, being stopped by Carlos Tamara in the final round. This bout saw Viloria being left with a lot of questions as he appeared to blow his load and was clearly exhausted in the championship rounds prior to being stopped.
Since the loss to Tamara, Viloria has tried to correct his flaws. He's no-longer a fighter who can't choose what to do, he's instead molded the features of his game together. He's become a boxer-puncher, a fighter who can move and hit, but moves and hits hard. He no longer blows himself out, instead picking his shots carefully. This slight change in style has seen Viloria claiming the WBO Flyweight title and picking up wins over Julio Cesar Miranda (UD12), Giovani Segura (TKO8) and Omar Nino Romero (TKO9) as he goes into this bout with Marquez.
Although questions remain about Viloria's stamina, especially late on, he appears to have slowed down slightly in recent bouts, using better ring control and a more controlled pace to win bouts. He no longer goes for broke when he has an opponent hurt, something he did in the past and instead boxes to find opportunities to land his power shots. Despite his record, suggesting he's only an average puncher, Viloria hits hard, he hits clean and he can hurt anyone in the Flyweight division, though the big question is whether or not he can do it if forced to fight at a high tempo.
Of course this fight isn't all about Viloria but also about WBA champion Hernan Marquez. Hailing from Mexico, the Southpaw, known as "Tyson" is also a fighter who has come back from adversity and losses to build up a real reputation as one of the monsters of the lighter divisions.
Aged just 24, Marquez has a lot of time to come back from a loss, however he'll not be thinking about that going going in to this fight. Instead the hard hitting and thoroughly exciting youngster will be thinking that this is his opportunity to make a real name for himself. Despite his age, Marquez has been a professional for over 7 years and is hugely experienced for someone so young with 161 rounds behind and the same amount of fights as Viloria has (though Viloria does have many, many more rounds under his belt).
Marquez started his career with 27 straight wins, albeit it mostly against limited opposition, before losing twice in 2010. The first of those loses, a minor upset, came against Filipino Richie Mepranum who was simply too active for an off colour Marquez who was fighting outside of his native Mexico for the first time. Just months later Marquez would lose again, this time being stopped by Nonito Donaire, again outside of his homeland in a WBA "interim" world title bout at Super Flyweight.
Since those two losses Marquez has rebuilt his career well running up 7 successive wins, including his first outside of Mexico, where he beat Luis Concepcion for the WBA Flyweight title in a real tear up. As well as defending his title twice (stopping Luis Concepcion again and stopping Edrin Dapudong) Marquez has also earned revenge over Richie Mepranum in those recent wins.
In terms of his style Marquez is a warrior with a nasty mean streak and really hurtful power. He is not only a hard hitting brawler but he is actually an under-rated boxer who has a solid defense and when he gets tagged he knows how to fight back, as he showed in the first bout with Concepcion. He can fight at a high pace if needed and will certainly look to dictate the pace against Viloria however he may not be able to ask the questions about Viloria's stamina with the fact he himself, has never been 12 rounds. Going into this bout, Marquez will certainly feel like he's the puncher and will want to set off at a high pace trying to force the bout into a war from the off, if he can do this he may feel he can break down Viloria.
On paper this is a bit of a brawler v boxer type of match up. Sure both men are very talented and both can bang but though it's a matter of who can control the pace and distance of the bout. If Marquez can make it a war early on he may face his chances of breaking down Viloria as he did to Concepcion in their first bout. In fact if Marquez can force Viloria to fight at a high tempo he could even come on strong and copy what Carlos Tamara did to Viloria. If instead Viloria can control the distance and fight at a slower, more controlled pace he should be able to take a clear decision. Wonderfully however their is a third option, and the option that I think many fans are hoping for, both guys will meet each other in the centre of the ring and unload on each other in a test of intestinal fortitude. If we get the third option, well, anything could happen.
I tend to feel that Viloria's superior boxing will be the difference here, but don't expect him to win with out at least a few hairy moments.
Prediction-Viloria UD
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