In boxing some fights seem bigger than the actual sport, fights like Louis v Schmelling II, Johnson v Jeffries and even Ali v Fraizer I. Whilst no one will describe this weekend's bout between Floyd Mayweather Jr (44-0, 26) and Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (42-0-1, 30) as being that big, it's undeniably one of the biggest possible fights in the sport today (I'd argue a Klitschko v Klitschko fight would be bigger, though has about 0% chance of ever happening).
With the WBA "Super" and WBC "Regular" titles both on the line the bout is something special. Easily the biggest fight of the year, and maybe the biggest fight, in terms of revenue, ever. It's a fight that has surpassed the boxing media and even the sports media as it's climbed into the mainstream and given boxing a real shot in the arm.
Whilst it's a massive fight, don't get me wrong on that, is it really a fight that will live up to the hype or will it, like many Mayweather fights, become a case of a highly talented boxer totally out fighting an under-skilled and limited fighter who has as many dimensions to his game as a piece of paper?
Mayweather, at his best, combines the elusiveness of Nicolino Locche with the hand speed of Sugar Ray Leonard, the stamina of Pete Sanstol and the boxing brains of, well, a genius. The guy might be an unlikable, arrogant loud mouth outside of the squared circle but between those ropes the guy really is the modern version of "Nonpariel" and in fact you would need to find a time machine to find him an equal match.
Dream fights with Mayweather would of course feature the Fab 4, Sandy Saddler, Sugar Ray Robinson and Henry Armstrong. The fact it's those men, the greatest fighters of all time, who are matched in mythical fights with Mayweather really should tell you something. This man is a special, once in a generation talent.
Sadly for Canelo he's not. Despite the Mexican's love for their ginger haired icon he's really moving up 3 levels here. He's no longer facing decent fighters, he's facing a elite talent. There is a huge leap from the likes of "Magic" Matthew Hatton, Josesito Lopez, Alfonso Gomez and Shane Mosley to Floyd Mayweather Jr. In fact the leap from Hatton, Lopez and Mosley to Austin Trout, the best win on Alvarez's record, is only a fraction of the leap up from Trout to Mayweather.
Unfortunately for "Canelo" not only is he taking a big step up in class but he'll be fighting in a very different environment to what he usually has. In his last fight he was the clear crowd favourite as he took on Austin Trout in Texas, with a crowd that was on his side from the start of the show. The crowd that night certainly helped him with the judges. This time however he's entering Mayweather's proverbial boxing home in the MGM Grand, the venue where "Money" has fought his past 7 bouts.
In the build up Mayweather may have received some boos from the Mexican's turning up for public appearances but at the MGM he'll not have the same negativity thrust his way.
Canelo is, for me, the hype that disgusts true boxing fans. Canelo is, at this moment ranked #3 pound-for-pound by Boxrec.com and #9 by Ring Magazine. What he did to achieve these accolades is frankly ridiculous and is insulting to fighters like Roman Gonzalez, Kazuto Ioka, Guillermo Rigondeaux and Mickey Garcia who are all more proven and have better fundamentals than Alvarez.
The worst limitations for Alvarez are things that Mayweather will know about all too well. For example Alvarez appears to have the stamina of 60 year old man, the boxing intelligence of a domestic level fighter and the inability to really think about both offense and defense at the same time. Asking Alvarez to show off his defense is fine, asking him to show off his offense is also fine but asking him to counter a fighter appears to be like asking a child to do calculus.
Against a fighter like Mayweather you need to be able to transition flawless between defense and offense to have any chance. You need to have an intelligent boxing brain and the ability to jab between Mayweather's own work.
Many reading this will be screaming at their screen saying "but Canelo is bigger!" Whilst this is true he's also slower, clumsier, and less skilled. A weight advantage won't really help when you're eating right hands like candy and with out trying to be to harsh Canelo will be punished for his boxing knowledge much like a red headed step child with his hand caught in the cookie jar.
Prediction-Mayweather UD12
Showing posts with label WBA Light Middleweight. Show all posts
Showing posts with label WBA Light Middleweight. Show all posts
Friday, 13 September 2013
Thursday, 18 April 2013
Austin Trout v Saul Alvarez
The biggest fight of this weekend, by a notable margin sees the much maligned Light Middleweight division thrust into the boxing spotlight as unbeaten fighters collide in a genuinely exciting unification bout. In one corner you have the often over-looked Austin "No Doubt" Trout (26-0, 14) who currently holds the WBA Light Middleweight title in the other corner you have the WBC champion Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (41-0-1, 30). On the line are both the WBC title and the WBA "super" title and of course bragging rights, the Ring title and the consensus #1 ranking at 154lbs. The stakes could hardly be bigger.
Of the two men the pressure is certainly more on flame haired Mexican Alvarez. The 22 year from Jalisco is seen by many as "the next superstar of boxing" with a huge female fan base, a unique look, a fun to watch style and a genuine charisma about him as well the Golden Boy hype machine which has pushed him in to the limelight in the US in the hope of making him a superstar.
So far in his 42 fight career things have been good for Alvarez who has only been troubled a handful of times a career that dates back to October 2010. In fact the closest Alvarez has come to losing was a split decision victory over Miguel Vazquez (yes, the current IBF Lightweight champion) and a draw to little known Jorge Juarez, though he was rocked in his first high profile US bout by Jose Miguel Cotto (in what was Canelo's 3rd US fight).
The stocky Mexican fighter is certainly a born fighter having been impressive since he was 15 and fighting obscure opponents in Mexico. Though many do doubt his actual creditability in the Light Middleweight division where some have ranked him #1. So far his wins in world title bouts have been against very limited opponents including the brave but outclassed Matthew Hatton, the much smaller Alfonso Gomez and Josesito Lopez, the old Shane Mosley and Ryan Rhodes and the mentally weak Kermit Cintron.
With the other fighters in the division, including Trout, Miguel Cotto, Floyd Mayweather, Javier Maciel, Erislandy Lara, Ishe Smith, James Kirkland and Alfredo Anguloit's fair to say that Alvarez's competition has been beyond poor since becoming a world champion.
Whilst "Canelo" has been fighting poor opponents he's been receiving the media acclaim of a fighter who is a pound-for-pound fighter. Whilst I don't mean to take away from his skills he doesn't look as rounded as the media have portrayed him. In fact defensively Alvarez has looked porous, offensively he's looked surprisingly quick though not as heavy handed as his record would indicate and whilst his shots are crisp he can be made to look lazy at times and his feet certainly aren't the swiftest.
As the under-dog it's fair to say there is less pressure on Trout who although unbeaten was pretty unknown by the wider boxing public just a few fights back, in fact until he beat Miguel Cotto (in what was considered a betting upset) it's fair to say that Trout was a completely overlooked fighter in the 154lb mix. This was despite notable wins in both Panama and Mexico over Nilson Julio Tapia, Rigoberto Alvarez ("Canelo's" brother) and David Lopez as well as a solid victory on Showtime against Delvin Rodriguez.
Like Alvarez, Trout is unbeaten since his debut in 2005 (a month before "Canelo") and although he's not had the hype and the promotional backing of Alvarez he's certainly proven his character fighting on the road on a regular basis. Be it in Panama, Mexico, Canada or Miguel Cotto's "adoptive home" of New York, Trout has had to prove his ability on the road and win decisions when he wasn't expected to.
In terms of his style, Trout has often been called a spoiler and whilst he can spoil fights, the southpaw isn't really that negative just very controlling in a fight. He's very highly skilled, he lacks explosive power but he certainly can hit hard enough to make fighters think twice, he has great movement and whilst not the most active at times he's a fighter who seems capable of putting his foot on the gas if and when needed. Like Canelo it's his hand speed more than anything that really stands out, though he certainly has a foot speed edge over Canelo and probably also a technical edge despite not having the power of the Mexican.
Going in to the bout Trout will know that he will need to clearly win the bout to get a decision. The Golden Boy backing that Alvarez has had won't be written off easily though "The Golden Boy Curse" could of course strike again here as it did Jorge Linares (against Juan Carlos Salgado) and Victor Ortiz (against Marcos Maidana).
With all the variables and intangibles going into this bout it's hardnot to get excited about it. Of course the bout has the potential to be a bit of let down considering whats on the the line especially when we remember back to the last unification bout in the US between unbeaten champions (Timothy Bradley v Devon Alexander) however I'm personally expecting an electric atmosphere and a bout to remember.
Sadly as much as I'm looking forward to this I can't help but feel that the actual result will be less than the fighters deserve. The gut feeling is that Canelo wins a very controversial decision due to his popularity though part of me also sees Trout turning it on very late and making sure the judges can't screw him. If Trout can't stop Alvarez he may end up getting a draw when he deserves a victory.
Prediction- Draw.
Of the two men the pressure is certainly more on flame haired Mexican Alvarez. The 22 year from Jalisco is seen by many as "the next superstar of boxing" with a huge female fan base, a unique look, a fun to watch style and a genuine charisma about him as well the Golden Boy hype machine which has pushed him in to the limelight in the US in the hope of making him a superstar.
So far in his 42 fight career things have been good for Alvarez who has only been troubled a handful of times a career that dates back to October 2010. In fact the closest Alvarez has come to losing was a split decision victory over Miguel Vazquez (yes, the current IBF Lightweight champion) and a draw to little known Jorge Juarez, though he was rocked in his first high profile US bout by Jose Miguel Cotto (in what was Canelo's 3rd US fight).
The stocky Mexican fighter is certainly a born fighter having been impressive since he was 15 and fighting obscure opponents in Mexico. Though many do doubt his actual creditability in the Light Middleweight division where some have ranked him #1. So far his wins in world title bouts have been against very limited opponents including the brave but outclassed Matthew Hatton, the much smaller Alfonso Gomez and Josesito Lopez, the old Shane Mosley and Ryan Rhodes and the mentally weak Kermit Cintron.
With the other fighters in the division, including Trout, Miguel Cotto, Floyd Mayweather, Javier Maciel, Erislandy Lara, Ishe Smith, James Kirkland and Alfredo Anguloit's fair to say that Alvarez's competition has been beyond poor since becoming a world champion.
Whilst "Canelo" has been fighting poor opponents he's been receiving the media acclaim of a fighter who is a pound-for-pound fighter. Whilst I don't mean to take away from his skills he doesn't look as rounded as the media have portrayed him. In fact defensively Alvarez has looked porous, offensively he's looked surprisingly quick though not as heavy handed as his record would indicate and whilst his shots are crisp he can be made to look lazy at times and his feet certainly aren't the swiftest.
As the under-dog it's fair to say there is less pressure on Trout who although unbeaten was pretty unknown by the wider boxing public just a few fights back, in fact until he beat Miguel Cotto (in what was considered a betting upset) it's fair to say that Trout was a completely overlooked fighter in the 154lb mix. This was despite notable wins in both Panama and Mexico over Nilson Julio Tapia, Rigoberto Alvarez ("Canelo's" brother) and David Lopez as well as a solid victory on Showtime against Delvin Rodriguez.
Like Alvarez, Trout is unbeaten since his debut in 2005 (a month before "Canelo") and although he's not had the hype and the promotional backing of Alvarez he's certainly proven his character fighting on the road on a regular basis. Be it in Panama, Mexico, Canada or Miguel Cotto's "adoptive home" of New York, Trout has had to prove his ability on the road and win decisions when he wasn't expected to.
In terms of his style, Trout has often been called a spoiler and whilst he can spoil fights, the southpaw isn't really that negative just very controlling in a fight. He's very highly skilled, he lacks explosive power but he certainly can hit hard enough to make fighters think twice, he has great movement and whilst not the most active at times he's a fighter who seems capable of putting his foot on the gas if and when needed. Like Canelo it's his hand speed more than anything that really stands out, though he certainly has a foot speed edge over Canelo and probably also a technical edge despite not having the power of the Mexican.
Going in to the bout Trout will know that he will need to clearly win the bout to get a decision. The Golden Boy backing that Alvarez has had won't be written off easily though "The Golden Boy Curse" could of course strike again here as it did Jorge Linares (against Juan Carlos Salgado) and Victor Ortiz (against Marcos Maidana).
With all the variables and intangibles going into this bout it's hardnot to get excited about it. Of course the bout has the potential to be a bit of let down considering whats on the the line especially when we remember back to the last unification bout in the US between unbeaten champions (Timothy Bradley v Devon Alexander) however I'm personally expecting an electric atmosphere and a bout to remember.
Sadly as much as I'm looking forward to this I can't help but feel that the actual result will be less than the fighters deserve. The gut feeling is that Canelo wins a very controversial decision due to his popularity though part of me also sees Trout turning it on very late and making sure the judges can't screw him. If Trout can't stop Alvarez he may end up getting a draw when he deserves a victory.
Prediction- Draw.
Friday, 30 November 2012
Austin Trout v Miguel Cotto
Saturday's only world title fight sees WBA Light Middleweight champion Austin Trout (25-0, 14) attempt to score the biggest victory of his career as he faces former 3-weight world champion Miguel Cotto (37-3, 30). Although Cotto will be the huge fan favourite going into this bout he is seen by some as being a fighter on the slide and a fighter who may well be ready to wave goodbye to the sport whilst Trout is certainly heading in the other direction.
Puerto Rican hero Miguel Cotto is a fighter who is hard to dislike. The 32 year old has genuinely faced everyone and anyone from Antonio Margarito to Zab Judah, Manny Pacquiao to Floyd Mayweather. In fact if anyone was to be critical the biggest problem with Cotto is that he faced too many tests and took too much punishment in a career that has seen him claim world titles in the Light Welterweight, Welterweight and Light Middleweight divisions.
At his most exciting Cotto was a come-forward, body beater who cracked hard, nasty hooks to the ribs of opponents, breaking them down round by round. Defensively he's never been the sharpest though Cotto has developed his style in recent years to be more than just an offensive body attacking machine and has added a very nice sharp jab to his repertoire. It's this jab that served him so well in his most recent fight, a decision loss to Floyd Mayweather Jr.
Although small for a Light Middleweight (5'7" and with a 67" reach) Cotto is often skilled enough to impose his fight on an opponent as he both uses controlled aggression and very under-rated foot work to work his angles and get inside a taller opponent. Sadly however we've seen him beaten down hard in the past by both Manny Pacquiao and Antonio Margarito, who both mentally and physically beat down Cotto (albeit Margarito did do it in a seriously controversial manner). The fact that those two men managed to really beat up Cotto does leave us wondering how much he can take, and although Mayweather didn't stop him, he looked like he could had he wished to.
At Light Middleweight Cotto's power isn't great despite being 3-1 (3) at the weight, his wins over Yuri Foreman, Ricardo Mayorga and Antonio Margarito really showed this. In fact all 3 of his stoppages at the weight have questions over them with Mayorga claiming a broken hand, Foreman damaging his leg and Margarito's damaged eye from his bout with Pacquiao, though his performance with Mayweather was still impressive.
Whilst Cotto, as mentioned, is seen as being on the slide, the 27 year old Trout is certainly seen as a fighter on his way up and despite being the champion is a betting under-dog. Whilst it's true that he isn't a big name in the sport, like Cotto or a number of Cotto's big name opponents he is still a hugely talented fighter who is fresh, confident and coming to make a real name for himself.
Southpaw Trout has slowly been making a name for himself with the hardcore fans since he turned professional way back in 2005 however it wasn't until 2011 that fans started to sit up and take notice as Trout bagged himself several notable victories. The most notable of those victories came in February 2011 as he out-pointed Rigoberto Alvarez (the older brother of Saul "Canelo" Alvarez) for the interim WBA Light Middleweight.
Since claiming the interim WBA Light Middleweight title, Trout has defended it 3 times, defeating David Lopez, Frank LoPorto and Delvin Rodriguez and barely losing a round in those three fights. Whilst he may not have been on killers row the victories over both Lopez and Rodriguez were still impressive and were worth taking note of, especially considering how good Rodriguez had looked in his bouts with Pawel Wolak.
Despite lacking the high level experience Trout has numerous advantages himself. Not only is he a fresher, younger fighter than Cotto but he is also a natural Light Middleweight and has notable size advantages over Cotto (stood over 2" taller and with a 5" reach advantage) both of which he will look to use to his advantage. This will likely see Trout using his right hand jab to keep Cotto at a safe distance and tie up Cotto at close, spoiling Cotto's work up close and neutralising Cotto's supposed power (which I actually don't think will be a factor here).
In terms of the fight, I'm going with the upset here. Like everyone I love Miguel Cotto though I can't help but feel that his age and hard career will be catching up with him as well as the weight. Cotto could still have one last hurrah, though I actually think that was the performance against Mayweather. Cotto's youth, speed and freshness will likely pay off here as he takes a competitive but clear decision.
Prediction-Trout by UD
Puerto Rican hero Miguel Cotto is a fighter who is hard to dislike. The 32 year old has genuinely faced everyone and anyone from Antonio Margarito to Zab Judah, Manny Pacquiao to Floyd Mayweather. In fact if anyone was to be critical the biggest problem with Cotto is that he faced too many tests and took too much punishment in a career that has seen him claim world titles in the Light Welterweight, Welterweight and Light Middleweight divisions.
At his most exciting Cotto was a come-forward, body beater who cracked hard, nasty hooks to the ribs of opponents, breaking them down round by round. Defensively he's never been the sharpest though Cotto has developed his style in recent years to be more than just an offensive body attacking machine and has added a very nice sharp jab to his repertoire. It's this jab that served him so well in his most recent fight, a decision loss to Floyd Mayweather Jr.
Although small for a Light Middleweight (5'7" and with a 67" reach) Cotto is often skilled enough to impose his fight on an opponent as he both uses controlled aggression and very under-rated foot work to work his angles and get inside a taller opponent. Sadly however we've seen him beaten down hard in the past by both Manny Pacquiao and Antonio Margarito, who both mentally and physically beat down Cotto (albeit Margarito did do it in a seriously controversial manner). The fact that those two men managed to really beat up Cotto does leave us wondering how much he can take, and although Mayweather didn't stop him, he looked like he could had he wished to.
At Light Middleweight Cotto's power isn't great despite being 3-1 (3) at the weight, his wins over Yuri Foreman, Ricardo Mayorga and Antonio Margarito really showed this. In fact all 3 of his stoppages at the weight have questions over them with Mayorga claiming a broken hand, Foreman damaging his leg and Margarito's damaged eye from his bout with Pacquiao, though his performance with Mayweather was still impressive.
Whilst Cotto, as mentioned, is seen as being on the slide, the 27 year old Trout is certainly seen as a fighter on his way up and despite being the champion is a betting under-dog. Whilst it's true that he isn't a big name in the sport, like Cotto or a number of Cotto's big name opponents he is still a hugely talented fighter who is fresh, confident and coming to make a real name for himself.
Southpaw Trout has slowly been making a name for himself with the hardcore fans since he turned professional way back in 2005 however it wasn't until 2011 that fans started to sit up and take notice as Trout bagged himself several notable victories. The most notable of those victories came in February 2011 as he out-pointed Rigoberto Alvarez (the older brother of Saul "Canelo" Alvarez) for the interim WBA Light Middleweight.
Since claiming the interim WBA Light Middleweight title, Trout has defended it 3 times, defeating David Lopez, Frank LoPorto and Delvin Rodriguez and barely losing a round in those three fights. Whilst he may not have been on killers row the victories over both Lopez and Rodriguez were still impressive and were worth taking note of, especially considering how good Rodriguez had looked in his bouts with Pawel Wolak.
Despite lacking the high level experience Trout has numerous advantages himself. Not only is he a fresher, younger fighter than Cotto but he is also a natural Light Middleweight and has notable size advantages over Cotto (stood over 2" taller and with a 5" reach advantage) both of which he will look to use to his advantage. This will likely see Trout using his right hand jab to keep Cotto at a safe distance and tie up Cotto at close, spoiling Cotto's work up close and neutralising Cotto's supposed power (which I actually don't think will be a factor here).
In terms of the fight, I'm going with the upset here. Like everyone I love Miguel Cotto though I can't help but feel that his age and hard career will be catching up with him as well as the weight. Cotto could still have one last hurrah, though I actually think that was the performance against Mayweather. Cotto's youth, speed and freshness will likely pay off here as he takes a competitive but clear decision.
Prediction-Trout by UD
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