If there is a division that promises a lot right now and seems to only partly deliver it's the Light Middleweight division. In some regards it's one of the best division's in the sport with the name value of Floyd Mayweather, Miguel Cotto and Saul "Canelo" Alvarez and the excitement value of James Kirkland and Alfredo Angulo .
In other respects however the division is a cesspit. It's given up some of the weakest champions in recent memory, including Cornelius Bundrage and Ishe Smith, some of biggest mismatches such as Canelo v Matthew Hatton, Canelo v Alfonso Gomez and Canelo v Kermit Cintron and some of the biggest disappointments in terms of what we have gotten with the talent available.
Thankfully this weekend we do get a genuinely interesting contest in the division as unbeaten men collide, both of whom have been US Olympians and both of whom have yet to get close to fulfilling the promise they showed early in their career.
In one corner is 2008 Olympian Demetrius Andrade (19-0, 13), a former World Amateur champion who has promises a lot though been slow in moving through the ranks. Through his first 19 fights his most notable opponents have been Saul Duran, Grady Brewer and Freddy Hernandez, hardly the resume of a man who was expected to be fast tracked up the rankings.
In the opposite corner is 2004 Olympian Vanes Martirosyan (33-0-1, 21) a man who has been a professional for well over 8 years yet has only faced a handful of opponents of note. Most notably Erislandy Lara, who was unfortunate to only receive a draw with Martirosyan and Kassim Ouma who was on the wrong side of a very hotly debated decision.
It's fair to say that both men have been slow to get to this point, their first world title fight.
In the case if Andrade it is somewhat defensible. The 6'1" southpaw is now just 25, he's taken a bit of time to get to this point but he's young enough to take his time, even if his activity has been poor. At 27 years old however Martirosyan hasn't gotten the same time. His activity has been fine with 34 bouts in a little over 8 years but many of those bouts seemed to be stalling bouts as opposed to progressive contests in his career.
Of the two men Martirosyan is the slightly more proven as a professional. Although he is fortunate to be unbeaten he has scared semi notable victories over Saul Roman, Billy Lyell and Joe Greene. Not murderer's row but certainly no worse than the opponents Andrade has faced. Of the two men however it's Andrade who appears to have the more natural skill-set and the more complete game.
Fast, with long range and a southpaw stance Andrade has the potential to be a nightmare for anyone in the division. He skills still need polishing off somewhat but the potential is there. Martirosyan on the other hand is a fighter who's struck me as nothing better than average. Nothing sticks out about him other than the fact he is possibly not as durable as one would think. He has been dropped by both Saul Roman and Kassim Ouma and whilst they were both solid contender types neither would be classed as a world level puncher (despite Roman's record of 31 KO's in 37 victories).
If anything the fact Andrade has been down before is the biggest worry here. If Andrade goes out to make a statement I honestly don't see Vanes living with him. If Andrade boxes with in himself then a clear decision is on the cards for the man known as "Boo Boo".
Prediction-Andrade TKO8
Showing posts with label Light Middleweight. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Light Middleweight. Show all posts
Friday, 8 November 2013
Friday, 13 September 2013
Floyd Mayweather Jr v Saul Alvarez
In boxing some fights seem bigger than the actual sport, fights like Louis v Schmelling II, Johnson v Jeffries and even Ali v Fraizer I. Whilst no one will describe this weekend's bout between Floyd Mayweather Jr (44-0, 26) and Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (42-0-1, 30) as being that big, it's undeniably one of the biggest possible fights in the sport today (I'd argue a Klitschko v Klitschko fight would be bigger, though has about 0% chance of ever happening).
With the WBA "Super" and WBC "Regular" titles both on the line the bout is something special. Easily the biggest fight of the year, and maybe the biggest fight, in terms of revenue, ever. It's a fight that has surpassed the boxing media and even the sports media as it's climbed into the mainstream and given boxing a real shot in the arm.
Whilst it's a massive fight, don't get me wrong on that, is it really a fight that will live up to the hype or will it, like many Mayweather fights, become a case of a highly talented boxer totally out fighting an under-skilled and limited fighter who has as many dimensions to his game as a piece of paper?
Mayweather, at his best, combines the elusiveness of Nicolino Locche with the hand speed of Sugar Ray Leonard, the stamina of Pete Sanstol and the boxing brains of, well, a genius. The guy might be an unlikable, arrogant loud mouth outside of the squared circle but between those ropes the guy really is the modern version of "Nonpariel" and in fact you would need to find a time machine to find him an equal match.
Dream fights with Mayweather would of course feature the Fab 4, Sandy Saddler, Sugar Ray Robinson and Henry Armstrong. The fact it's those men, the greatest fighters of all time, who are matched in mythical fights with Mayweather really should tell you something. This man is a special, once in a generation talent.
Sadly for Canelo he's not. Despite the Mexican's love for their ginger haired icon he's really moving up 3 levels here. He's no longer facing decent fighters, he's facing a elite talent. There is a huge leap from the likes of "Magic" Matthew Hatton, Josesito Lopez, Alfonso Gomez and Shane Mosley to Floyd Mayweather Jr. In fact the leap from Hatton, Lopez and Mosley to Austin Trout, the best win on Alvarez's record, is only a fraction of the leap up from Trout to Mayweather.
Unfortunately for "Canelo" not only is he taking a big step up in class but he'll be fighting in a very different environment to what he usually has. In his last fight he was the clear crowd favourite as he took on Austin Trout in Texas, with a crowd that was on his side from the start of the show. The crowd that night certainly helped him with the judges. This time however he's entering Mayweather's proverbial boxing home in the MGM Grand, the venue where "Money" has fought his past 7 bouts.
In the build up Mayweather may have received some boos from the Mexican's turning up for public appearances but at the MGM he'll not have the same negativity thrust his way.
Canelo is, for me, the hype that disgusts true boxing fans. Canelo is, at this moment ranked #3 pound-for-pound by Boxrec.com and #9 by Ring Magazine. What he did to achieve these accolades is frankly ridiculous and is insulting to fighters like Roman Gonzalez, Kazuto Ioka, Guillermo Rigondeaux and Mickey Garcia who are all more proven and have better fundamentals than Alvarez.
The worst limitations for Alvarez are things that Mayweather will know about all too well. For example Alvarez appears to have the stamina of 60 year old man, the boxing intelligence of a domestic level fighter and the inability to really think about both offense and defense at the same time. Asking Alvarez to show off his defense is fine, asking him to show off his offense is also fine but asking him to counter a fighter appears to be like asking a child to do calculus.
Against a fighter like Mayweather you need to be able to transition flawless between defense and offense to have any chance. You need to have an intelligent boxing brain and the ability to jab between Mayweather's own work.
Many reading this will be screaming at their screen saying "but Canelo is bigger!" Whilst this is true he's also slower, clumsier, and less skilled. A weight advantage won't really help when you're eating right hands like candy and with out trying to be to harsh Canelo will be punished for his boxing knowledge much like a red headed step child with his hand caught in the cookie jar.
Prediction-Mayweather UD12
With the WBA "Super" and WBC "Regular" titles both on the line the bout is something special. Easily the biggest fight of the year, and maybe the biggest fight, in terms of revenue, ever. It's a fight that has surpassed the boxing media and even the sports media as it's climbed into the mainstream and given boxing a real shot in the arm.
Whilst it's a massive fight, don't get me wrong on that, is it really a fight that will live up to the hype or will it, like many Mayweather fights, become a case of a highly talented boxer totally out fighting an under-skilled and limited fighter who has as many dimensions to his game as a piece of paper?
Mayweather, at his best, combines the elusiveness of Nicolino Locche with the hand speed of Sugar Ray Leonard, the stamina of Pete Sanstol and the boxing brains of, well, a genius. The guy might be an unlikable, arrogant loud mouth outside of the squared circle but between those ropes the guy really is the modern version of "Nonpariel" and in fact you would need to find a time machine to find him an equal match.
Dream fights with Mayweather would of course feature the Fab 4, Sandy Saddler, Sugar Ray Robinson and Henry Armstrong. The fact it's those men, the greatest fighters of all time, who are matched in mythical fights with Mayweather really should tell you something. This man is a special, once in a generation talent.
Sadly for Canelo he's not. Despite the Mexican's love for their ginger haired icon he's really moving up 3 levels here. He's no longer facing decent fighters, he's facing a elite talent. There is a huge leap from the likes of "Magic" Matthew Hatton, Josesito Lopez, Alfonso Gomez and Shane Mosley to Floyd Mayweather Jr. In fact the leap from Hatton, Lopez and Mosley to Austin Trout, the best win on Alvarez's record, is only a fraction of the leap up from Trout to Mayweather.
Unfortunately for "Canelo" not only is he taking a big step up in class but he'll be fighting in a very different environment to what he usually has. In his last fight he was the clear crowd favourite as he took on Austin Trout in Texas, with a crowd that was on his side from the start of the show. The crowd that night certainly helped him with the judges. This time however he's entering Mayweather's proverbial boxing home in the MGM Grand, the venue where "Money" has fought his past 7 bouts.
In the build up Mayweather may have received some boos from the Mexican's turning up for public appearances but at the MGM he'll not have the same negativity thrust his way.
Canelo is, for me, the hype that disgusts true boxing fans. Canelo is, at this moment ranked #3 pound-for-pound by Boxrec.com and #9 by Ring Magazine. What he did to achieve these accolades is frankly ridiculous and is insulting to fighters like Roman Gonzalez, Kazuto Ioka, Guillermo Rigondeaux and Mickey Garcia who are all more proven and have better fundamentals than Alvarez.
The worst limitations for Alvarez are things that Mayweather will know about all too well. For example Alvarez appears to have the stamina of 60 year old man, the boxing intelligence of a domestic level fighter and the inability to really think about both offense and defense at the same time. Asking Alvarez to show off his defense is fine, asking him to show off his offense is also fine but asking him to counter a fighter appears to be like asking a child to do calculus.
Against a fighter like Mayweather you need to be able to transition flawless between defense and offense to have any chance. You need to have an intelligent boxing brain and the ability to jab between Mayweather's own work.
Many reading this will be screaming at their screen saying "but Canelo is bigger!" Whilst this is true he's also slower, clumsier, and less skilled. A weight advantage won't really help when you're eating right hands like candy and with out trying to be to harsh Canelo will be punished for his boxing knowledge much like a red headed step child with his hand caught in the cookie jar.
Prediction-Mayweather UD12
Ishe Smith v Carlos Molina
It's not too often that a world title fight looks like it will cure insomnia but this weekend's IBF Light Middleweight title fight between defending champion Ishe Smith (25-5, 11) and Carlos Molina (21-5-2, 6) may well be as close as boxing can come to sending a crowd to sleep.
Although that sounds like a major slight on both men it's not actually supposed to be. The problem is that both men are incredible skilled, especially defensively, and have had a knack of neutralising their opponents. When you have two men who are fantastic at neutralising fighters then it's unlikely that a fight between the two will be particularly exciting, though for the purists it's likely to be a genuinely interesting contest that pits two intelligent fighters against each other.
Smith won the title last time out when he defeated Cornelius "K9" Bundrage via a majority decision in a rather scrappy fight, at his best however Smith is an excellent defensive fighter who would make life difficult for most opponents. He blunts attacks, looks to counter, and recent bouts seems to have shown a bit more of an offensive game plan. He'll never be an all out offensive fighter but he's certainly throwing more than he did a few years ago.
As well as the victory over Bundrage, Smith holds wins over David Estrada, Randall Bailey, Ahmad Kaddour and Powell Wolak and has also been in with the likes of Daniel Jacobs, Fernando Guerrero, Sergio Mora and Joel Julio.
Since linking up with Floyd Mayweather Jr, Smith has seen his career effectively turn around and he has gone from being a talented but uncertain fighter into being a confident fighter, almost feeling the Mayweather confidence rubbing off on him. Unfortunately whilst he may be more confident he hasn't suddenly become Mayweather and he's not got his handspeed, or natural ability. He's good, but nowhere near that good.
Of course it takes two to tango and Carlos Molina is, like Smith, a very defensively sound fighter. At his best Molina is capable of giving any fighter a hard time with his smart movement, intelligent defense and excellent shot selection, at his worst however he looks an octopus holding on to opponents, spoiling fighters and using incredibly negative tactics to see out rounds.
Although Molina has failed to win against many of his highest profile opponents, including a loss and a draw to Julio Cesar Chavez Jr, a draw with Erislandy Lara and losses to both James Kirkland and Mike Alvarado he has never really been out classed. In fact not only has he held his own but many of his losses have come with a real cloud of controversy with many feeling he was jobbed in a number of his notable bouts.
As well as Molina's losses he has also won against several noteworthy opponents including Kermit Cintron and Cory Spinks.
When fighting at his best Molina is a nightmare. He is light on feet, has quick hands and although he lacks power he is very accurate able to land clean and precise shots. Unfortunately his lack of power rarely stops an opponent in their tracks but he has shown an ability to slip shots and smother opponents when he needs to. This has made him incredibly tricky to land clean on and next to impossible to really grind down, though it did look like Kirkland was beginning to grind him down in their controversial bout from last year.
With both men knowing how to hit with out getting hit this is bout to be ugly. On a card that also features Floyd Mayweather Jr v Saul "Canelo" Alvarez and Danny Garcia v Lucas Matthysse, this bout certainly won't be the one people are tuning in for, though on the other hand it's probably the most evenly matched contest on the card.
With the even nature of the contest I've got to favour Smith. I don't think Either fighter will be hugely effective or massively offensive but with Smith having his links to Mayweather, it's possible that he'll manage to get the slight edge in the close rounds and as a result do just enough to claim the victory.
Prediction-Smith MD12
Although that sounds like a major slight on both men it's not actually supposed to be. The problem is that both men are incredible skilled, especially defensively, and have had a knack of neutralising their opponents. When you have two men who are fantastic at neutralising fighters then it's unlikely that a fight between the two will be particularly exciting, though for the purists it's likely to be a genuinely interesting contest that pits two intelligent fighters against each other.
Smith won the title last time out when he defeated Cornelius "K9" Bundrage via a majority decision in a rather scrappy fight, at his best however Smith is an excellent defensive fighter who would make life difficult for most opponents. He blunts attacks, looks to counter, and recent bouts seems to have shown a bit more of an offensive game plan. He'll never be an all out offensive fighter but he's certainly throwing more than he did a few years ago.
As well as the victory over Bundrage, Smith holds wins over David Estrada, Randall Bailey, Ahmad Kaddour and Powell Wolak and has also been in with the likes of Daniel Jacobs, Fernando Guerrero, Sergio Mora and Joel Julio.
Since linking up with Floyd Mayweather Jr, Smith has seen his career effectively turn around and he has gone from being a talented but uncertain fighter into being a confident fighter, almost feeling the Mayweather confidence rubbing off on him. Unfortunately whilst he may be more confident he hasn't suddenly become Mayweather and he's not got his handspeed, or natural ability. He's good, but nowhere near that good.
Of course it takes two to tango and Carlos Molina is, like Smith, a very defensively sound fighter. At his best Molina is capable of giving any fighter a hard time with his smart movement, intelligent defense and excellent shot selection, at his worst however he looks an octopus holding on to opponents, spoiling fighters and using incredibly negative tactics to see out rounds.
Although Molina has failed to win against many of his highest profile opponents, including a loss and a draw to Julio Cesar Chavez Jr, a draw with Erislandy Lara and losses to both James Kirkland and Mike Alvarado he has never really been out classed. In fact not only has he held his own but many of his losses have come with a real cloud of controversy with many feeling he was jobbed in a number of his notable bouts.
As well as Molina's losses he has also won against several noteworthy opponents including Kermit Cintron and Cory Spinks.
When fighting at his best Molina is a nightmare. He is light on feet, has quick hands and although he lacks power he is very accurate able to land clean and precise shots. Unfortunately his lack of power rarely stops an opponent in their tracks but he has shown an ability to slip shots and smother opponents when he needs to. This has made him incredibly tricky to land clean on and next to impossible to really grind down, though it did look like Kirkland was beginning to grind him down in their controversial bout from last year.
With both men knowing how to hit with out getting hit this is bout to be ugly. On a card that also features Floyd Mayweather Jr v Saul "Canelo" Alvarez and Danny Garcia v Lucas Matthysse, this bout certainly won't be the one people are tuning in for, though on the other hand it's probably the most evenly matched contest on the card.
With the even nature of the contest I've got to favour Smith. I don't think Either fighter will be hugely effective or massively offensive but with Smith having his links to Mayweather, it's possible that he'll manage to get the slight edge in the close rounds and as a result do just enough to claim the victory.
Prediction-Smith MD12
Saturday, 8 June 2013
Erislandy Lara v Alfredo Angulo
In a very exciting looking bout for the "interim" WBA Light Middleweight title the hard hitting Alfredo Angulo (22-2, 18) takes on Cuban skillster Erislandy Lara (17-1-2, 11). The bout, a true puncher v boxer bout could well end up being the fight of the night depending on how the styles clash.
Mexican Angulo, known as "El Perro" ("The Dog"), is one of the sport's must watch fighters with his hard punching and all action style. Technically he's limited but he's tough, very fun to watch and at his best he's a destructive freak of nature capable of hurting fighters with every punch in his arsenal.
To date Angulo's only losses have come to Kermit Cintron (via a decision) and James Kirkland (courtesy of a stoppage), though both have been "excused" by his fans. The loss to Cintron apparently occurred when Angulo was suffering from a cold whilst the loss to Kirkland happened when Angulo was having problems with his life.
Unfortunately several problems have hindered Angulo over the years, mainly issues regarding a visa whilst almost derailed his career together as he was kept out of the ring for more than a year following the loss to Kirkland (and he'd only fought once in the previous 12 months prior to that bout). With those issues sorted however Angulo looks to be back for good and will be looking to make up for lost time.
In Cuban fighter Erislandy Lara we have an incredibly well schooled southpaw, who, at his best can be either be destructive and take people out in a round (ask Ronald Hearns about that) or be a very skillful fighter dominating with his excellent technique.
Despite having 3 blotches on his record, Lara is widely considered to have been unlucky in 2 of those. A loss to Paul Williams in 2011 was widely considered to be one of the robberies of the year whilst a 9 round technical draw with Vanes Martirosyan was slated as it protected Martirosyan's unbeaten record. His actual "legitimate" blotch came in 2011 as he drew with Carlos Molina in a fight many felt Molina had deserved to win.
Going in to this bout the obvious prediction is that Lara will do what Cintron did to Angulo and box and move, make Angulo follow him whilst landing counters time and time again. This wouldn't be a shock. Lara is a much, much, much better boxer than Cintron. Though on the flip of that Lara has been jobbed in the past (the Martirosyan and Williams results) so he may decide to try to take it out of the judges hands. If Lara decides to take the fight to Angulo instead of relying on his boxing we may end up with a thriller.
If Lara decides to trade it's hard to see him winning, though if he's too negative he could throw rounds away. I actually think we'll see a lot from Lara who will mix things up whilst Angulo comes forward relentlessly looking to unleash his ferocious power. This will give the bout a very close feeling and make the decision an "on your edge" type of call.
Prediction-Lara UD12 (but close)
Mexican Angulo, known as "El Perro" ("The Dog"), is one of the sport's must watch fighters with his hard punching and all action style. Technically he's limited but he's tough, very fun to watch and at his best he's a destructive freak of nature capable of hurting fighters with every punch in his arsenal.
To date Angulo's only losses have come to Kermit Cintron (via a decision) and James Kirkland (courtesy of a stoppage), though both have been "excused" by his fans. The loss to Cintron apparently occurred when Angulo was suffering from a cold whilst the loss to Kirkland happened when Angulo was having problems with his life.
Unfortunately several problems have hindered Angulo over the years, mainly issues regarding a visa whilst almost derailed his career together as he was kept out of the ring for more than a year following the loss to Kirkland (and he'd only fought once in the previous 12 months prior to that bout). With those issues sorted however Angulo looks to be back for good and will be looking to make up for lost time.
In Cuban fighter Erislandy Lara we have an incredibly well schooled southpaw, who, at his best can be either be destructive and take people out in a round (ask Ronald Hearns about that) or be a very skillful fighter dominating with his excellent technique.
Despite having 3 blotches on his record, Lara is widely considered to have been unlucky in 2 of those. A loss to Paul Williams in 2011 was widely considered to be one of the robberies of the year whilst a 9 round technical draw with Vanes Martirosyan was slated as it protected Martirosyan's unbeaten record. His actual "legitimate" blotch came in 2011 as he drew with Carlos Molina in a fight many felt Molina had deserved to win.
Going in to this bout the obvious prediction is that Lara will do what Cintron did to Angulo and box and move, make Angulo follow him whilst landing counters time and time again. This wouldn't be a shock. Lara is a much, much, much better boxer than Cintron. Though on the flip of that Lara has been jobbed in the past (the Martirosyan and Williams results) so he may decide to try to take it out of the judges hands. If Lara decides to take the fight to Angulo instead of relying on his boxing we may end up with a thriller.
If Lara decides to trade it's hard to see him winning, though if he's too negative he could throw rounds away. I actually think we'll see a lot from Lara who will mix things up whilst Angulo comes forward relentlessly looking to unleash his ferocious power. This will give the bout a very close feeling and make the decision an "on your edge" type of call.
Prediction-Lara UD12 (but close)
Thursday, 18 April 2013
Austin Trout v Saul Alvarez
The biggest fight of this weekend, by a notable margin sees the much maligned Light Middleweight division thrust into the boxing spotlight as unbeaten fighters collide in a genuinely exciting unification bout. In one corner you have the often over-looked Austin "No Doubt" Trout (26-0, 14) who currently holds the WBA Light Middleweight title in the other corner you have the WBC champion Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (41-0-1, 30). On the line are both the WBC title and the WBA "super" title and of course bragging rights, the Ring title and the consensus #1 ranking at 154lbs. The stakes could hardly be bigger.
Of the two men the pressure is certainly more on flame haired Mexican Alvarez. The 22 year from Jalisco is seen by many as "the next superstar of boxing" with a huge female fan base, a unique look, a fun to watch style and a genuine charisma about him as well the Golden Boy hype machine which has pushed him in to the limelight in the US in the hope of making him a superstar.
So far in his 42 fight career things have been good for Alvarez who has only been troubled a handful of times a career that dates back to October 2010. In fact the closest Alvarez has come to losing was a split decision victory over Miguel Vazquez (yes, the current IBF Lightweight champion) and a draw to little known Jorge Juarez, though he was rocked in his first high profile US bout by Jose Miguel Cotto (in what was Canelo's 3rd US fight).
The stocky Mexican fighter is certainly a born fighter having been impressive since he was 15 and fighting obscure opponents in Mexico. Though many do doubt his actual creditability in the Light Middleweight division where some have ranked him #1. So far his wins in world title bouts have been against very limited opponents including the brave but outclassed Matthew Hatton, the much smaller Alfonso Gomez and Josesito Lopez, the old Shane Mosley and Ryan Rhodes and the mentally weak Kermit Cintron.
With the other fighters in the division, including Trout, Miguel Cotto, Floyd Mayweather, Javier Maciel, Erislandy Lara, Ishe Smith, James Kirkland and Alfredo Anguloit's fair to say that Alvarez's competition has been beyond poor since becoming a world champion.
Whilst "Canelo" has been fighting poor opponents he's been receiving the media acclaim of a fighter who is a pound-for-pound fighter. Whilst I don't mean to take away from his skills he doesn't look as rounded as the media have portrayed him. In fact defensively Alvarez has looked porous, offensively he's looked surprisingly quick though not as heavy handed as his record would indicate and whilst his shots are crisp he can be made to look lazy at times and his feet certainly aren't the swiftest.
As the under-dog it's fair to say there is less pressure on Trout who although unbeaten was pretty unknown by the wider boxing public just a few fights back, in fact until he beat Miguel Cotto (in what was considered a betting upset) it's fair to say that Trout was a completely overlooked fighter in the 154lb mix. This was despite notable wins in both Panama and Mexico over Nilson Julio Tapia, Rigoberto Alvarez ("Canelo's" brother) and David Lopez as well as a solid victory on Showtime against Delvin Rodriguez.
Like Alvarez, Trout is unbeaten since his debut in 2005 (a month before "Canelo") and although he's not had the hype and the promotional backing of Alvarez he's certainly proven his character fighting on the road on a regular basis. Be it in Panama, Mexico, Canada or Miguel Cotto's "adoptive home" of New York, Trout has had to prove his ability on the road and win decisions when he wasn't expected to.
In terms of his style, Trout has often been called a spoiler and whilst he can spoil fights, the southpaw isn't really that negative just very controlling in a fight. He's very highly skilled, he lacks explosive power but he certainly can hit hard enough to make fighters think twice, he has great movement and whilst not the most active at times he's a fighter who seems capable of putting his foot on the gas if and when needed. Like Canelo it's his hand speed more than anything that really stands out, though he certainly has a foot speed edge over Canelo and probably also a technical edge despite not having the power of the Mexican.
Going in to the bout Trout will know that he will need to clearly win the bout to get a decision. The Golden Boy backing that Alvarez has had won't be written off easily though "The Golden Boy Curse" could of course strike again here as it did Jorge Linares (against Juan Carlos Salgado) and Victor Ortiz (against Marcos Maidana).
With all the variables and intangibles going into this bout it's hardnot to get excited about it. Of course the bout has the potential to be a bit of let down considering whats on the the line especially when we remember back to the last unification bout in the US between unbeaten champions (Timothy Bradley v Devon Alexander) however I'm personally expecting an electric atmosphere and a bout to remember.
Sadly as much as I'm looking forward to this I can't help but feel that the actual result will be less than the fighters deserve. The gut feeling is that Canelo wins a very controversial decision due to his popularity though part of me also sees Trout turning it on very late and making sure the judges can't screw him. If Trout can't stop Alvarez he may end up getting a draw when he deserves a victory.
Prediction- Draw.
Of the two men the pressure is certainly more on flame haired Mexican Alvarez. The 22 year from Jalisco is seen by many as "the next superstar of boxing" with a huge female fan base, a unique look, a fun to watch style and a genuine charisma about him as well the Golden Boy hype machine which has pushed him in to the limelight in the US in the hope of making him a superstar.
So far in his 42 fight career things have been good for Alvarez who has only been troubled a handful of times a career that dates back to October 2010. In fact the closest Alvarez has come to losing was a split decision victory over Miguel Vazquez (yes, the current IBF Lightweight champion) and a draw to little known Jorge Juarez, though he was rocked in his first high profile US bout by Jose Miguel Cotto (in what was Canelo's 3rd US fight).
The stocky Mexican fighter is certainly a born fighter having been impressive since he was 15 and fighting obscure opponents in Mexico. Though many do doubt his actual creditability in the Light Middleweight division where some have ranked him #1. So far his wins in world title bouts have been against very limited opponents including the brave but outclassed Matthew Hatton, the much smaller Alfonso Gomez and Josesito Lopez, the old Shane Mosley and Ryan Rhodes and the mentally weak Kermit Cintron.
With the other fighters in the division, including Trout, Miguel Cotto, Floyd Mayweather, Javier Maciel, Erislandy Lara, Ishe Smith, James Kirkland and Alfredo Anguloit's fair to say that Alvarez's competition has been beyond poor since becoming a world champion.
Whilst "Canelo" has been fighting poor opponents he's been receiving the media acclaim of a fighter who is a pound-for-pound fighter. Whilst I don't mean to take away from his skills he doesn't look as rounded as the media have portrayed him. In fact defensively Alvarez has looked porous, offensively he's looked surprisingly quick though not as heavy handed as his record would indicate and whilst his shots are crisp he can be made to look lazy at times and his feet certainly aren't the swiftest.
As the under-dog it's fair to say there is less pressure on Trout who although unbeaten was pretty unknown by the wider boxing public just a few fights back, in fact until he beat Miguel Cotto (in what was considered a betting upset) it's fair to say that Trout was a completely overlooked fighter in the 154lb mix. This was despite notable wins in both Panama and Mexico over Nilson Julio Tapia, Rigoberto Alvarez ("Canelo's" brother) and David Lopez as well as a solid victory on Showtime against Delvin Rodriguez.
Like Alvarez, Trout is unbeaten since his debut in 2005 (a month before "Canelo") and although he's not had the hype and the promotional backing of Alvarez he's certainly proven his character fighting on the road on a regular basis. Be it in Panama, Mexico, Canada or Miguel Cotto's "adoptive home" of New York, Trout has had to prove his ability on the road and win decisions when he wasn't expected to.
In terms of his style, Trout has often been called a spoiler and whilst he can spoil fights, the southpaw isn't really that negative just very controlling in a fight. He's very highly skilled, he lacks explosive power but he certainly can hit hard enough to make fighters think twice, he has great movement and whilst not the most active at times he's a fighter who seems capable of putting his foot on the gas if and when needed. Like Canelo it's his hand speed more than anything that really stands out, though he certainly has a foot speed edge over Canelo and probably also a technical edge despite not having the power of the Mexican.
Going in to the bout Trout will know that he will need to clearly win the bout to get a decision. The Golden Boy backing that Alvarez has had won't be written off easily though "The Golden Boy Curse" could of course strike again here as it did Jorge Linares (against Juan Carlos Salgado) and Victor Ortiz (against Marcos Maidana).
With all the variables and intangibles going into this bout it's hardnot to get excited about it. Of course the bout has the potential to be a bit of let down considering whats on the the line especially when we remember back to the last unification bout in the US between unbeaten champions (Timothy Bradley v Devon Alexander) however I'm personally expecting an electric atmosphere and a bout to remember.
Sadly as much as I'm looking forward to this I can't help but feel that the actual result will be less than the fighters deserve. The gut feeling is that Canelo wins a very controversial decision due to his popularity though part of me also sees Trout turning it on very late and making sure the judges can't screw him. If Trout can't stop Alvarez he may end up getting a draw when he deserves a victory.
Prediction- Draw.
Thursday, 21 February 2013
Cornelius Bundrage v Ishe Smith
Light Middleweight veteran Cornelius "K9" Bundrage (32-4-0-1, 19) will attempt to make the 3rd defense of his IBF Light Middleweight title as he faces the under-rated but talented Ishe Smith (24-5, 11). Although this bout is a pretty notable one, especially stateside with the winner likely joining the running for the Canelo sweepstakes it has been heavily overlooked by many due to the unattractiveness of the fighters involved.
Although the 39 year old Bundrage is the champion is generally seen as one of the weakest champions, not just in his division but in the whole of boxing. He's powerful but crude and really was lucky to find an aging and disinterested Cory Spinks 2010 to dethrone. Since winning the title Bundrage has been relatively inactive defeating the barking Sechew Powell in 2011 and Spinks again in 2012.
Aside from title fights Bundrage is best known for his appearance on the television show "The Contender" where he beat Michael Clark and Walter Wright before losing to Steve Forbes. As well as his time in the Contender he is known for being in a memorable 22 second bout with Sechew Powell in which both men were simultaneously dropped before Bundrage was unable to fully regain his feet.
Despite his famous moments it does need to be accepted that Bundrage has scored a few noteworthy wins as well as his title victories, including wins over Kassim Ouma and Zaurbek Baysangurov.
Sadly for Bundrage he has a lot more negatives than positive and 2 stoppage losses he's been shown not to have a great chin, his skill levels are genuinely low, especially for a world level fighter and the combination of age and inactivity will not help him. On the flip of this he is powerful, he does throw some very awkward punches that you're not likely to see from too many other fighters and he does have a lot of confidence in him self thanks to his very public belief in god. It may just be a shame that god can't help fighters beat father time.
Aged 34 the challenger is no spring chicken himself though Smith is a very skilled fighter who often shows all the cute moves you'd expect to see from a fringe world class fighter. He knows how to use his defense excellently, he can throw almost all the shots in the book however his own downfalls come in regards to his lack of power and often his lack of work-rate as he falls into his defensive shell for too long and gives rounds away.
Like Bundrage, Smith was also featured on "The Contender" where he defeated Ahmad Kaddour and Anthony Bonsante before losing a split decision to eventual winner Sergio Mora. As well as his fights in "The Contender" Smith has faced (and beaten) a number of recognisable names including Alfonso Gomez, David Estrada, Randall Bailey, Pawel Wolak, and Ayi Bruce. Likewise he has also lost to recognisable names including Sechew Powell, Joel Julio, Daniel Jacobs and Fernando Guerrero though he did often run them closer than the cards show.
If Smith can fight to his potential then for me this is an easy win for the smoother, more skilled fighter however if Smith decides to stay defensive for too long he could very easily find himself giving rounds away to the crude but offensive work of Bundrage. In my eyes as long as Smith works his offense from the off he shouldn't struggle to claim the victory by a wide decision, or in fact even a late stoppage.
Prediction-Smith Decision
Although the 39 year old Bundrage is the champion is generally seen as one of the weakest champions, not just in his division but in the whole of boxing. He's powerful but crude and really was lucky to find an aging and disinterested Cory Spinks 2010 to dethrone. Since winning the title Bundrage has been relatively inactive defeating the barking Sechew Powell in 2011 and Spinks again in 2012.
Aside from title fights Bundrage is best known for his appearance on the television show "The Contender" where he beat Michael Clark and Walter Wright before losing to Steve Forbes. As well as his time in the Contender he is known for being in a memorable 22 second bout with Sechew Powell in which both men were simultaneously dropped before Bundrage was unable to fully regain his feet.
Despite his famous moments it does need to be accepted that Bundrage has scored a few noteworthy wins as well as his title victories, including wins over Kassim Ouma and Zaurbek Baysangurov.
Sadly for Bundrage he has a lot more negatives than positive and 2 stoppage losses he's been shown not to have a great chin, his skill levels are genuinely low, especially for a world level fighter and the combination of age and inactivity will not help him. On the flip of this he is powerful, he does throw some very awkward punches that you're not likely to see from too many other fighters and he does have a lot of confidence in him self thanks to his very public belief in god. It may just be a shame that god can't help fighters beat father time.
Aged 34 the challenger is no spring chicken himself though Smith is a very skilled fighter who often shows all the cute moves you'd expect to see from a fringe world class fighter. He knows how to use his defense excellently, he can throw almost all the shots in the book however his own downfalls come in regards to his lack of power and often his lack of work-rate as he falls into his defensive shell for too long and gives rounds away.
Like Bundrage, Smith was also featured on "The Contender" where he defeated Ahmad Kaddour and Anthony Bonsante before losing a split decision to eventual winner Sergio Mora. As well as his fights in "The Contender" Smith has faced (and beaten) a number of recognisable names including Alfonso Gomez, David Estrada, Randall Bailey, Pawel Wolak, and Ayi Bruce. Likewise he has also lost to recognisable names including Sechew Powell, Joel Julio, Daniel Jacobs and Fernando Guerrero though he did often run them closer than the cards show.
If Smith can fight to his potential then for me this is an easy win for the smoother, more skilled fighter however if Smith decides to stay defensive for too long he could very easily find himself giving rounds away to the crude but offensive work of Bundrage. In my eyes as long as Smith works his offense from the off he shouldn't struggle to claim the victory by a wide decision, or in fact even a late stoppage.
Prediction-Smith Decision
Friday, 30 November 2012
Austin Trout v Miguel Cotto
Saturday's only world title fight sees WBA Light Middleweight champion Austin Trout (25-0, 14) attempt to score the biggest victory of his career as he faces former 3-weight world champion Miguel Cotto (37-3, 30). Although Cotto will be the huge fan favourite going into this bout he is seen by some as being a fighter on the slide and a fighter who may well be ready to wave goodbye to the sport whilst Trout is certainly heading in the other direction.
Puerto Rican hero Miguel Cotto is a fighter who is hard to dislike. The 32 year old has genuinely faced everyone and anyone from Antonio Margarito to Zab Judah, Manny Pacquiao to Floyd Mayweather. In fact if anyone was to be critical the biggest problem with Cotto is that he faced too many tests and took too much punishment in a career that has seen him claim world titles in the Light Welterweight, Welterweight and Light Middleweight divisions.
At his most exciting Cotto was a come-forward, body beater who cracked hard, nasty hooks to the ribs of opponents, breaking them down round by round. Defensively he's never been the sharpest though Cotto has developed his style in recent years to be more than just an offensive body attacking machine and has added a very nice sharp jab to his repertoire. It's this jab that served him so well in his most recent fight, a decision loss to Floyd Mayweather Jr.
Although small for a Light Middleweight (5'7" and with a 67" reach) Cotto is often skilled enough to impose his fight on an opponent as he both uses controlled aggression and very under-rated foot work to work his angles and get inside a taller opponent. Sadly however we've seen him beaten down hard in the past by both Manny Pacquiao and Antonio Margarito, who both mentally and physically beat down Cotto (albeit Margarito did do it in a seriously controversial manner). The fact that those two men managed to really beat up Cotto does leave us wondering how much he can take, and although Mayweather didn't stop him, he looked like he could had he wished to.
At Light Middleweight Cotto's power isn't great despite being 3-1 (3) at the weight, his wins over Yuri Foreman, Ricardo Mayorga and Antonio Margarito really showed this. In fact all 3 of his stoppages at the weight have questions over them with Mayorga claiming a broken hand, Foreman damaging his leg and Margarito's damaged eye from his bout with Pacquiao, though his performance with Mayweather was still impressive.
Whilst Cotto, as mentioned, is seen as being on the slide, the 27 year old Trout is certainly seen as a fighter on his way up and despite being the champion is a betting under-dog. Whilst it's true that he isn't a big name in the sport, like Cotto or a number of Cotto's big name opponents he is still a hugely talented fighter who is fresh, confident and coming to make a real name for himself.
Southpaw Trout has slowly been making a name for himself with the hardcore fans since he turned professional way back in 2005 however it wasn't until 2011 that fans started to sit up and take notice as Trout bagged himself several notable victories. The most notable of those victories came in February 2011 as he out-pointed Rigoberto Alvarez (the older brother of Saul "Canelo" Alvarez) for the interim WBA Light Middleweight.
Since claiming the interim WBA Light Middleweight title, Trout has defended it 3 times, defeating David Lopez, Frank LoPorto and Delvin Rodriguez and barely losing a round in those three fights. Whilst he may not have been on killers row the victories over both Lopez and Rodriguez were still impressive and were worth taking note of, especially considering how good Rodriguez had looked in his bouts with Pawel Wolak.
Despite lacking the high level experience Trout has numerous advantages himself. Not only is he a fresher, younger fighter than Cotto but he is also a natural Light Middleweight and has notable size advantages over Cotto (stood over 2" taller and with a 5" reach advantage) both of which he will look to use to his advantage. This will likely see Trout using his right hand jab to keep Cotto at a safe distance and tie up Cotto at close, spoiling Cotto's work up close and neutralising Cotto's supposed power (which I actually don't think will be a factor here).
In terms of the fight, I'm going with the upset here. Like everyone I love Miguel Cotto though I can't help but feel that his age and hard career will be catching up with him as well as the weight. Cotto could still have one last hurrah, though I actually think that was the performance against Mayweather. Cotto's youth, speed and freshness will likely pay off here as he takes a competitive but clear decision.
Prediction-Trout by UD
Puerto Rican hero Miguel Cotto is a fighter who is hard to dislike. The 32 year old has genuinely faced everyone and anyone from Antonio Margarito to Zab Judah, Manny Pacquiao to Floyd Mayweather. In fact if anyone was to be critical the biggest problem with Cotto is that he faced too many tests and took too much punishment in a career that has seen him claim world titles in the Light Welterweight, Welterweight and Light Middleweight divisions.
At his most exciting Cotto was a come-forward, body beater who cracked hard, nasty hooks to the ribs of opponents, breaking them down round by round. Defensively he's never been the sharpest though Cotto has developed his style in recent years to be more than just an offensive body attacking machine and has added a very nice sharp jab to his repertoire. It's this jab that served him so well in his most recent fight, a decision loss to Floyd Mayweather Jr.
Although small for a Light Middleweight (5'7" and with a 67" reach) Cotto is often skilled enough to impose his fight on an opponent as he both uses controlled aggression and very under-rated foot work to work his angles and get inside a taller opponent. Sadly however we've seen him beaten down hard in the past by both Manny Pacquiao and Antonio Margarito, who both mentally and physically beat down Cotto (albeit Margarito did do it in a seriously controversial manner). The fact that those two men managed to really beat up Cotto does leave us wondering how much he can take, and although Mayweather didn't stop him, he looked like he could had he wished to.
At Light Middleweight Cotto's power isn't great despite being 3-1 (3) at the weight, his wins over Yuri Foreman, Ricardo Mayorga and Antonio Margarito really showed this. In fact all 3 of his stoppages at the weight have questions over them with Mayorga claiming a broken hand, Foreman damaging his leg and Margarito's damaged eye from his bout with Pacquiao, though his performance with Mayweather was still impressive.
Whilst Cotto, as mentioned, is seen as being on the slide, the 27 year old Trout is certainly seen as a fighter on his way up and despite being the champion is a betting under-dog. Whilst it's true that he isn't a big name in the sport, like Cotto or a number of Cotto's big name opponents he is still a hugely talented fighter who is fresh, confident and coming to make a real name for himself.
Southpaw Trout has slowly been making a name for himself with the hardcore fans since he turned professional way back in 2005 however it wasn't until 2011 that fans started to sit up and take notice as Trout bagged himself several notable victories. The most notable of those victories came in February 2011 as he out-pointed Rigoberto Alvarez (the older brother of Saul "Canelo" Alvarez) for the interim WBA Light Middleweight.
Since claiming the interim WBA Light Middleweight title, Trout has defended it 3 times, defeating David Lopez, Frank LoPorto and Delvin Rodriguez and barely losing a round in those three fights. Whilst he may not have been on killers row the victories over both Lopez and Rodriguez were still impressive and were worth taking note of, especially considering how good Rodriguez had looked in his bouts with Pawel Wolak.
Despite lacking the high level experience Trout has numerous advantages himself. Not only is he a fresher, younger fighter than Cotto but he is also a natural Light Middleweight and has notable size advantages over Cotto (stood over 2" taller and with a 5" reach advantage) both of which he will look to use to his advantage. This will likely see Trout using his right hand jab to keep Cotto at a safe distance and tie up Cotto at close, spoiling Cotto's work up close and neutralising Cotto's supposed power (which I actually don't think will be a factor here).
In terms of the fight, I'm going with the upset here. Like everyone I love Miguel Cotto though I can't help but feel that his age and hard career will be catching up with him as well as the weight. Cotto could still have one last hurrah, though I actually think that was the performance against Mayweather. Cotto's youth, speed and freshness will likely pay off here as he takes a competitive but clear decision.
Prediction-Trout by UD
Thursday, 4 October 2012
Zaurbek Baysangurov v Lukas Konecny
Despite the fact that 3 of this weekends world title bouts take place in the lower weight divisions, arguably the most exciting takes place in the Light Middleweight division as WBO Light Middleweight champion Zaurbek Baysangurov (27-1, 20) faces the always fun to watch Lukas Konecny (48-3, 23).
The 27 year old Baysangurov will be seeking his second successful title defense since being seeing his interim status upgraded to full champion earlier this year. In his first defense he was less than convincing against the unheralded Frenchman Michel Soro, however he showed his experience late in the bout to take a close but clear decision.
Baysangurov really made his name as an amateur where he excelled in the cadets and juniors winning various national and international titles including the 2001 European Cadet Championships and the 2003 European Junior Championships, before turning professional in 2004. As a young professional he rose through the ranks quickly and claimed various titles including the IBF Youth Middleweight title (in his 11th bout), the WBC International Light Middleweight title (in his 15th fight) and the European Light Middleweight title (in his 16th bout) before suffering a notable upset loss to Cornelius Bundrage in 2008.
Since suffering the sole loss of his professional career Baysangurov has rebuilt well. He has strung together 8 wins (6 by T/KO) however the quality of the opponents is questionable with Soro being the stand out amongst them. Despite the quality (or rather lack of) of Baysangurov's opponents in recent times he has claimed both the WBA Inter-Continental Light Middleweight title and of course, more notably, the WBO world title.
In terms of talent, Baysangurov is a very talented fighter, but I'm not sure I'd describe him as being genuine "world class". He has shown his vulnerabilities in the past, not only suffering the stoppage to Bundrage but also being dropped by Soro and Marco Antonio Rubio (and possibly others) which is quite worrying and probably explains the weak recent opposition he's been facing. Despite this he does hit very hard himself and can hurt almost any fighter if he lands clean.
The challenger, Czech Lukas Konecny has been one of boxing's most over-looked fighters over the last decade and despite not being a really well known name has scored notable victories. Despite being around since 2001 Konecny hasn't really had a defining win, however he does have a number of credible wins including victories over the likes of Siarhei Khomitski, Matthew Hall, Khoren Gevor (twice) and Roman Dzhuman.
Despite having several good wins on his record, Konecny has had 2 issues with his career. The first of those is that he's had to travel to get his most notable bouts. So far in his career he has fought in Germany, Spain, Czech Republic, Italy, Austria, Slovenia, Poland, Russia and the United Kingdom. Sadly this leads to the other issue, when your forced to fight away from home you often suffer some unfortunate losses and that's what happened to Konecny. So far all of his losses have come away from home.With losses coming in Spain (to Ruben Varon, by Split decision), Italy (to Michele Piccirillo by unanimous decision) and in Germany (to Serhiy Dzinziruk by majority decision, with judge Clark Sammartino having a ridiculous card of 118-110).
Whilst Konecny may be described as a journeyman due to his need to travel to the opponents backyard, he is anything but a journeyman in fighting style. He's a very intelligent pressure fighter who throws a lot and generally lands a lot grinding opponents down with a very solid work rate and a determined mindset. Whilst he's not a massive puncher, he is an exciting fighter who has hurtful stinging power on his punches and often refuses to take a backwards step.
So now on to this fight, I really like Konecny and to see him with a world title would genuinely be nice after the career he's had and I'll be honest I think he may just nick this on work rate in a genuinely enthralling fight that ebbs and flows. Baysangurov certainly has the ability to to make life difficult for pretty much anyone at Light Middleweight however I don't think he has that "world class" ability needed to do more than just make life difficult. At 34 years old however Konecny may well just have a slid a bit too much and his work may just lack the snap that it once had.
The 27 year old Baysangurov will be seeking his second successful title defense since being seeing his interim status upgraded to full champion earlier this year. In his first defense he was less than convincing against the unheralded Frenchman Michel Soro, however he showed his experience late in the bout to take a close but clear decision.
Baysangurov really made his name as an amateur where he excelled in the cadets and juniors winning various national and international titles including the 2001 European Cadet Championships and the 2003 European Junior Championships, before turning professional in 2004. As a young professional he rose through the ranks quickly and claimed various titles including the IBF Youth Middleweight title (in his 11th bout), the WBC International Light Middleweight title (in his 15th fight) and the European Light Middleweight title (in his 16th bout) before suffering a notable upset loss to Cornelius Bundrage in 2008.
Since suffering the sole loss of his professional career Baysangurov has rebuilt well. He has strung together 8 wins (6 by T/KO) however the quality of the opponents is questionable with Soro being the stand out amongst them. Despite the quality (or rather lack of) of Baysangurov's opponents in recent times he has claimed both the WBA Inter-Continental Light Middleweight title and of course, more notably, the WBO world title.
In terms of talent, Baysangurov is a very talented fighter, but I'm not sure I'd describe him as being genuine "world class". He has shown his vulnerabilities in the past, not only suffering the stoppage to Bundrage but also being dropped by Soro and Marco Antonio Rubio (and possibly others) which is quite worrying and probably explains the weak recent opposition he's been facing. Despite this he does hit very hard himself and can hurt almost any fighter if he lands clean.
The challenger, Czech Lukas Konecny has been one of boxing's most over-looked fighters over the last decade and despite not being a really well known name has scored notable victories. Despite being around since 2001 Konecny hasn't really had a defining win, however he does have a number of credible wins including victories over the likes of Siarhei Khomitski, Matthew Hall, Khoren Gevor (twice) and Roman Dzhuman.
Despite having several good wins on his record, Konecny has had 2 issues with his career. The first of those is that he's had to travel to get his most notable bouts. So far in his career he has fought in Germany, Spain, Czech Republic, Italy, Austria, Slovenia, Poland, Russia and the United Kingdom. Sadly this leads to the other issue, when your forced to fight away from home you often suffer some unfortunate losses and that's what happened to Konecny. So far all of his losses have come away from home.With losses coming in Spain (to Ruben Varon, by Split decision), Italy (to Michele Piccirillo by unanimous decision) and in Germany (to Serhiy Dzinziruk by majority decision, with judge Clark Sammartino having a ridiculous card of 118-110).
Whilst Konecny may be described as a journeyman due to his need to travel to the opponents backyard, he is anything but a journeyman in fighting style. He's a very intelligent pressure fighter who throws a lot and generally lands a lot grinding opponents down with a very solid work rate and a determined mindset. Whilst he's not a massive puncher, he is an exciting fighter who has hurtful stinging power on his punches and often refuses to take a backwards step.
So now on to this fight, I really like Konecny and to see him with a world title would genuinely be nice after the career he's had and I'll be honest I think he may just nick this on work rate in a genuinely enthralling fight that ebbs and flows. Baysangurov certainly has the ability to to make life difficult for pretty much anyone at Light Middleweight however I don't think he has that "world class" ability needed to do more than just make life difficult. At 34 years old however Konecny may well just have a slid a bit too much and his work may just lack the snap that it once had.
Wednesday, 12 September 2012
Saul Alvarez v Josesito Lopez
It's rare for me to genuinely hate a fight but the upcoming WBC Light Middleweight title fight between champion Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (40-0-1, 29) and challenger Josesito Lopez (30-4-0-1, 18) is one that I cannot stomach nor understand.
Ginger haired Saul Alvarez is seen by many in the sport as the emerging Mexican star of the future. He's got a massive fan base that seems to grow after every fight and he's got a pretty fun to watch style that combines heavy hands with some wonderful combinations. At just 21 years old it's fair to say that, if matched well, Alvarez really could be a star for the next 10 or so years, however this brings us to the big problem of Alvarez. Just how do you match a 21 year old world champion with the world looking at him? The answer seems to be softly.
Since his break out US performance against Jose Miguel Cotto back in May 2010 on the Floyd Mayweather Jr v Shane Mosley undercard there has been expectation on Alvarez. This expectation grew suddenly after Alvarez stopped the teak tough Argentinian Carlos Manuel Baldomir and then again when Alvarez claimed the WBC Light Middleweight title by out pointing Matthew Hatton in March 2011. Sadly however Alvarez's reign as world champion, in a solid division, has been less than note worthy with victories over a 35 year old Ryan Rhodes, a horribly undersized Alfonso Gomez, an undeserving Kermit Cintron and an ancient Shane Mosley. In a division that has talent like Floyd Mayweather Jr, Miguel Cotto, Austin Trout, James Kirkland, Erislandy Lara, Javier Maciel, Lukas Konecny and Zaurbek Baysangurov we really need to ask why Alvarez has been content on fighting second rate opponents.
That's not to say that his opponent this coming weekend, Josesito Lopez, is second rate, but he certainly isn't a Light Middleweight or an opponent that we should really be that excited about. Lopez is there as the sacrificial lamb as Golden Boy Promotions continue to develop Alvarez on hype rather than achievement, a risky strategy in this sport.
So why is Lopez not a solid opponent for Alvarez? Well to start this we need to look at Lopez. He may be taller than Alvarez but he's a naturally thin guy and not the thick set build of Alvarez. Just a year ago Lopez was fighting as a Light Welterweight in fact it's almost certain he could make Light Welterweight still if he wanted to. The highest Lopez has ever weighed was just 144¾lbs, over 9 lbs less than the Light Middleweight limit. Again, whilst he is a solid fighter he is no Light Middleweight.
Lopez got this fight after upsetting the Golden Boy Promotions apple cart by stunning Victor Ortiz in June, breaking Ortiz's jaw. The original idea was to put Ortiz in with Alvarez, though again it wasn't a match up I liked when we see the talent in the Light Middleweight division.
Sadly the size factor will never be overcome. Lopez may be able to survive 6 or 7 rounds but the sheer size and power difference is going to be far too much and take it's toll on the California native who I expect to be ground down in the middle rounds before being ultimately stopped. The biggest problem with this fight is sadly the Golden Boy hype train who will continue to declare Alvarez as one of the sports biggest stars despite the fact he'll have only beaten a Light Welterweight.
Prediction- Alvarez TKO 6
To sum this up in a word-Mismatch.
Ginger haired Saul Alvarez is seen by many in the sport as the emerging Mexican star of the future. He's got a massive fan base that seems to grow after every fight and he's got a pretty fun to watch style that combines heavy hands with some wonderful combinations. At just 21 years old it's fair to say that, if matched well, Alvarez really could be a star for the next 10 or so years, however this brings us to the big problem of Alvarez. Just how do you match a 21 year old world champion with the world looking at him? The answer seems to be softly.
Since his break out US performance against Jose Miguel Cotto back in May 2010 on the Floyd Mayweather Jr v Shane Mosley undercard there has been expectation on Alvarez. This expectation grew suddenly after Alvarez stopped the teak tough Argentinian Carlos Manuel Baldomir and then again when Alvarez claimed the WBC Light Middleweight title by out pointing Matthew Hatton in March 2011. Sadly however Alvarez's reign as world champion, in a solid division, has been less than note worthy with victories over a 35 year old Ryan Rhodes, a horribly undersized Alfonso Gomez, an undeserving Kermit Cintron and an ancient Shane Mosley. In a division that has talent like Floyd Mayweather Jr, Miguel Cotto, Austin Trout, James Kirkland, Erislandy Lara, Javier Maciel, Lukas Konecny and Zaurbek Baysangurov we really need to ask why Alvarez has been content on fighting second rate opponents.
That's not to say that his opponent this coming weekend, Josesito Lopez, is second rate, but he certainly isn't a Light Middleweight or an opponent that we should really be that excited about. Lopez is there as the sacrificial lamb as Golden Boy Promotions continue to develop Alvarez on hype rather than achievement, a risky strategy in this sport.
So why is Lopez not a solid opponent for Alvarez? Well to start this we need to look at Lopez. He may be taller than Alvarez but he's a naturally thin guy and not the thick set build of Alvarez. Just a year ago Lopez was fighting as a Light Welterweight in fact it's almost certain he could make Light Welterweight still if he wanted to. The highest Lopez has ever weighed was just 144¾lbs, over 9 lbs less than the Light Middleweight limit. Again, whilst he is a solid fighter he is no Light Middleweight.
Lopez got this fight after upsetting the Golden Boy Promotions apple cart by stunning Victor Ortiz in June, breaking Ortiz's jaw. The original idea was to put Ortiz in with Alvarez, though again it wasn't a match up I liked when we see the talent in the Light Middleweight division.
Sadly the size factor will never be overcome. Lopez may be able to survive 6 or 7 rounds but the sheer size and power difference is going to be far too much and take it's toll on the California native who I expect to be ground down in the middle rounds before being ultimately stopped. The biggest problem with this fight is sadly the Golden Boy hype train who will continue to declare Alvarez as one of the sports biggest stars despite the fact he'll have only beaten a Light Welterweight.
Prediction- Alvarez TKO 6
To sum this up in a word-Mismatch.
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