Right now British boxing is clearly under a dark cloud due to the controversial ending to the recent Carl Froch/George Groves bout that ended with one of the worst stoppages of the year. It's unlikely that British boxing will immediately recover but one man attempting to re-affirm how good it can be is Scouser Tony Bellew (20-1-1, 12) who this week travels to Canada and battles Canadian based Haitian Adonis Stevenson (22-1, 19) for the WBC and Ring Magazine Light Heavyweight titles.
Bellew, who was once regarded as a big puncher himself, will be fighting in his second world title fight after fighting to a majority decision loss to Welshman Nathan Cleverly a little over 2 years ago. Since that loss Bellew has been a man who has been fighting for a second world title opportunity and has been through Danny McIntosh, Edison Miranda, Roberto Feliciano Bolonti and Isaac Chilemba, who he has also drawn against.
In his first first 15 fights Bellew had scored 10 stoppages and seemed to have belief in his power. Once suggesting that if he connects on anyone in the division he'd destroy them. Since then however he has managed 2 stoppages in 7 fights proving that his belief in his own power is very much over-stated and in all honesty his nickname of "Bomber" seems less apt after ever fight.
As well as the over-rated power Bellew also appears to have a some what shaky chin having been down against the likes of Bob Ajisafe and Ovill McKenzie. Of course those fights were 3 years ago but it still needs to be a worry to the Brit, especially when you consider who he is facing.
Those flaws of Bellew has forced him to use his boxing skills and although he's no longer taking people out he is showing some great in-ring traits such as using his jab properly, controlling the distance well with his fantastic reach and showing a lot more maturity from the man who had a large mouth early in his career. Unfortunately however that mature head can blow and he can do some very stupid things, as he did several times in the first bout with Chilemba. When he keeps his cool he's a threat to anybody but when frustrated he's only a threat to himself.
Unfortunately for Bellew he's up against one of the most destructive men in world boxing. Adonis "Superman" Stevenson is one of those rare fighters blesesd with fight changing power in both hands, a jab feels like a straight and a straight feels like a ramrod. What's makes things worse for his opponents is that he's added more and more boxing to his game.
As shown in Stevenson's victory over Tavoris Cloud he can box as well as bang and his movement, shot selection and over-all gameplan is very much that of a world level fighter. When you have Stevenson's power it can be easy to ignore the basics but thankfully for Stevenson he was built up by the late Manny Steward and those boxing fundamentals have started to be utilised to their best.
Going in to this fight we can actually have two things. We could have a boxing contest, which would give Bellew a slight chance as long as he starts faster than Stevenson, or we could have a tear up. I'd imagine the fight will start with a bit of boxing, both men trying to establish their jabs. The one who can't get the jab going will be the first to change their plan and this will likely determine the next 2 or 3 rounds. Unfortunately however it's only a matter of time before Stevenson connects with a straight that sends Bellew crumpling to the canvas.
I imagine the heart of Bellew will help him to his feet but he'll only get tagged again until the referee has seen enough. The stoppage will be legit but yet Bellew will try to make out that he was fine and rather than taking the defeat graciously I think we may see the immaturity come out in the end and further the dark cloud over British boxing after putting up a brave effort.
Prediction-Stevenson TKO6
Showing posts with label WBC Light Heavyweight. Show all posts
Showing posts with label WBC Light Heavyweight. Show all posts
Wednesday, 27 November 2013
Saturday, 28 September 2013
Adonis Stevenson v Tavoris Cloud
"Explosive" is a word we love to hear in boxing. "Explosive fight" or "explosive puncher" are two of the greatest terms to a boxing fans ears. This Saturday night in Quebec, Canada we have a fight that promises to be "explosive" with one big time explosive puncher against a tough fighter who himself contains a bit of TNT in his gloves.
Haitian born Canadian Adonis "Superman" Stevenson (21-1, 18) lived up to his "Superman" moniker earlier this year when he upset, in spectacular fashion, Chad Dawson to claim the WBC Light Heavyweight title. Entering that bout as the under-dog Stevenson needed just 76 seconds to stop Dawson and claim the title in an impressive performance that put him on the boxing map.
Whilst Stevenson scored his highest profile victory in his most recent contest, his opponent here, Tavoris Cloud (24-1, 19) suffered his first loss, being out pointed by Bernard Hopkins. Going into his bout with Hopkins, Cloud was the IBF champion and was actually defending that belt for the fifth time before being given a bit of a schooling by Hopkins.
For Cloud this is a bout that gives him a chance at rebuilding his reputation. In all honesty he should have lost his last two bouts, though both of those came against "boxers". Cloud isn't made to beat boxers. He's a guy with a high work rate and hard punches though very slow feet that need to be set before he punches. He wants an opponent to trade with him and if he's forced to box with an opponent on their toes he's always going to struggle due to his feet and style.
In Stevenson, Cloud has an stylistically opponent made for him. Stevenson isn't going to run from a fight and will instead try to prove that he's more of a man than the guy he's sharing the ring with. This can cost him, as it did in his sole loss to Darnell, though it tends to favour Stevenson who's punch is thunderous.
Sadly for Cloud, Stevenson's punch is destructive. If Cloud wants to trade with him there is every chance that Stevenson will connect with his murderous straight left which could see the usually tough Cloud buzzed, big time. If Cloud is buzzed at any point expect Stevenson to jump on him and unload.
Whilst Cloud could win if it's a close brawl he cannot afford to let Stevenson have full extension on his straight punches. If he does then he'll be, well, in the clouds.
Another problem for Cloud however is the fact Stevenson can actually box a bit. He's not master boxer like Hopkins or Campillo but he can boxing, use his reach and move. If he does that in the early rounds and lets Cloud chase him we could end up being fooled into thinking that Stevenson has become a boxer. Cloud would make Stevenson look a better boxer than he is, though it would allow Stevenson a chance to pick a hole and find a place for his left. Just because he bombed out Dawson with a perfect counter doesn't mean he'll be looking to do the same here, this time the pressure is on him, whilst last time he was the under-dog.
Yes Cloud "could" win, but personally I just don't see it.
Prediction-Stevenson TKO6
Haitian born Canadian Adonis "Superman" Stevenson (21-1, 18) lived up to his "Superman" moniker earlier this year when he upset, in spectacular fashion, Chad Dawson to claim the WBC Light Heavyweight title. Entering that bout as the under-dog Stevenson needed just 76 seconds to stop Dawson and claim the title in an impressive performance that put him on the boxing map.
Whilst Stevenson scored his highest profile victory in his most recent contest, his opponent here, Tavoris Cloud (24-1, 19) suffered his first loss, being out pointed by Bernard Hopkins. Going into his bout with Hopkins, Cloud was the IBF champion and was actually defending that belt for the fifth time before being given a bit of a schooling by Hopkins.
For Cloud this is a bout that gives him a chance at rebuilding his reputation. In all honesty he should have lost his last two bouts, though both of those came against "boxers". Cloud isn't made to beat boxers. He's a guy with a high work rate and hard punches though very slow feet that need to be set before he punches. He wants an opponent to trade with him and if he's forced to box with an opponent on their toes he's always going to struggle due to his feet and style.
In Stevenson, Cloud has an stylistically opponent made for him. Stevenson isn't going to run from a fight and will instead try to prove that he's more of a man than the guy he's sharing the ring with. This can cost him, as it did in his sole loss to Darnell, though it tends to favour Stevenson who's punch is thunderous.
Sadly for Cloud, Stevenson's punch is destructive. If Cloud wants to trade with him there is every chance that Stevenson will connect with his murderous straight left which could see the usually tough Cloud buzzed, big time. If Cloud is buzzed at any point expect Stevenson to jump on him and unload.
Whilst Cloud could win if it's a close brawl he cannot afford to let Stevenson have full extension on his straight punches. If he does then he'll be, well, in the clouds.
Another problem for Cloud however is the fact Stevenson can actually box a bit. He's not master boxer like Hopkins or Campillo but he can boxing, use his reach and move. If he does that in the early rounds and lets Cloud chase him we could end up being fooled into thinking that Stevenson has become a boxer. Cloud would make Stevenson look a better boxer than he is, though it would allow Stevenson a chance to pick a hole and find a place for his left. Just because he bombed out Dawson with a perfect counter doesn't mean he'll be looking to do the same here, this time the pressure is on him, whilst last time he was the under-dog.
Yes Cloud "could" win, but personally I just don't see it.
Prediction-Stevenson TKO6
Thursday, 6 June 2013
Chad Dawson v Adonis Stevenson
American Light Heavyweight Chad Dawson (31-2-0-1, 17) is a fighter who forever splits opinion. The current WBC Light Heavyweight champion is an amazing talent with hurtful power, amazing hand speed, fantastic size and all the physical traits a fighter could ever wish to have. Sadly he's also a fight who appears to be lazy, unable to draw flies and a complete frustration to watch. This weekend he travels to Canada to defend his belt against the hard hitting Adonis Stevenson (20-1, 17) in what looks to be a very interesting match up.
Dawson, still the champion despite his loss last time out to Andre Ward (which was fought at 168lbs), is a fighter who at his best is genuinely brilliant. His resume reads very impressively with victories over Bernard Hopkins, Antonio Tarver, Glen Johnson, Adrian Diaconu and Tomasz Adamek though each victory holds it's own story. The likes of Hopkins, Tarver and Johnson were all old men, Adamek was killing himself at 175lbs and Diaconu bout was simply dreadful.
The problem with Dawson is that for all his talent (and trust me, he is talented) he never wants to show it for more than a few seconds at a time. His first loss, a technical decision to Jean Pascal saw Dawson do almost nothing until the final few rounds when he actually let his hands go and looked like a possible modern great. His second loss, a stoppage to Andre Ward started with Dawson looking decent then mentally he crumbled when he started to struggle to land on Ward.
If a fighter can force Dawson in to a fight we can some interesting action, though all too often Dawson is too negative to really engage in a battle, this weekend however may be different.
Adonis Stevenson isn't the talented boxer that Dawson is, no one would say that Stevenson is a boxer in all honesty. He's an aggressive, hard hitting and hungry fighter looking for his chance to finally make a name for himself.
Although Stevenson is coming up from Super Middleweight for this opportunity he's the home fighter and has a solid fan base in Canada. His fan base is built on the fact he's very fun to watch, very hard hitting and very determined to stop his opponents. His intention to force stoppages has seen him scoring 6 straight T/KO victories (and stopping 9 of his last 10 bouts early). Sure he did suffer a surprise stoppage loss to Darnell Boone in 2010 but has already put that loss behind him and avenged it.
The big question here, is "Can Stevenson draw Dawson into a fight?" If he can he stands an excellent chance at stopping Dawson who could well be coming in to the bout mentally questioning himself following the Ward loss. If Dawson can box on the move (which he can do, but can also be too lazy to do) then he can out box Stevenson with ease, as long as he can avoid the Canadian's straight left hand.
Prediction-I think Dawson knows his career is on the line and he'll go up a gear, show more of those flashes he is capable of and take a very solid decision over Stevenson. If not his career is as good as over. UD12 Dawson.
Dawson, still the champion despite his loss last time out to Andre Ward (which was fought at 168lbs), is a fighter who at his best is genuinely brilliant. His resume reads very impressively with victories over Bernard Hopkins, Antonio Tarver, Glen Johnson, Adrian Diaconu and Tomasz Adamek though each victory holds it's own story. The likes of Hopkins, Tarver and Johnson were all old men, Adamek was killing himself at 175lbs and Diaconu bout was simply dreadful.
The problem with Dawson is that for all his talent (and trust me, he is talented) he never wants to show it for more than a few seconds at a time. His first loss, a technical decision to Jean Pascal saw Dawson do almost nothing until the final few rounds when he actually let his hands go and looked like a possible modern great. His second loss, a stoppage to Andre Ward started with Dawson looking decent then mentally he crumbled when he started to struggle to land on Ward.
If a fighter can force Dawson in to a fight we can some interesting action, though all too often Dawson is too negative to really engage in a battle, this weekend however may be different.
Adonis Stevenson isn't the talented boxer that Dawson is, no one would say that Stevenson is a boxer in all honesty. He's an aggressive, hard hitting and hungry fighter looking for his chance to finally make a name for himself.
Although Stevenson is coming up from Super Middleweight for this opportunity he's the home fighter and has a solid fan base in Canada. His fan base is built on the fact he's very fun to watch, very hard hitting and very determined to stop his opponents. His intention to force stoppages has seen him scoring 6 straight T/KO victories (and stopping 9 of his last 10 bouts early). Sure he did suffer a surprise stoppage loss to Darnell Boone in 2010 but has already put that loss behind him and avenged it.
The big question here, is "Can Stevenson draw Dawson into a fight?" If he can he stands an excellent chance at stopping Dawson who could well be coming in to the bout mentally questioning himself following the Ward loss. If Dawson can box on the move (which he can do, but can also be too lazy to do) then he can out box Stevenson with ease, as long as he can avoid the Canadian's straight left hand.
Prediction-I think Dawson knows his career is on the line and he'll go up a gear, show more of those flashes he is capable of and take a very solid decision over Stevenson. If not his career is as good as over. UD12 Dawson.
Tuesday, 4 September 2012
Andre Ward v Chad Dawson
Whilst many fights have excitement written all over them the upcoming Super Middleweight title bout between the WBC and WBA "super" champion Andre Ward (25-0, 13) and current WBC Light Heavyweight champion Chad Dawson (31-1-0-2, 17) really has "stinker" written all over it.
Despite being the current WBC Light Heavyweight champion Chad Dawson will be dropping 7lbs to challenge for the Super Middleweight titles, a decision that I personally feel he will regret, however it is an in-built excuse for a loss.
Dawson made his professional debut back in 2001 after having had a solid Amateur career which saw him defeating current WBA Light Heavyweight champion Beibut Shumenov and claiming a number of amateur medals (notably a Bronze at the 2000 World Junior Championships). As a professional he showed a lot of early promise and quickly raced to the WBC Youth World Middleweight title in a little over 2 years.
Over the following years Dawson continued to rise through the rankings not only defending his WBC Youth title at Middleweight but also claiming the WBO NABO Super Middleweight title before finally moving to Light Heavyweight in 2006. It was at 175lbs that the athletically built Dawson really excelled and in early 2007 he claimed the first world title of his professional career as he out pointed the then unbeaten Tomaz Adamek for the WBC world title.
As the WBC champion Dawson made 3 title defenses with the highlight of them being a controversial decision win over veteran Glen Johnson. Instead of facing his mandatory challenger Dawson gave up his WBC title to instead face the IBF champion Antonio Tarver. Against Tarver we saw Dawson looking sensational as he claimed his second professional title and further secured his claim as one of the elite fighters at 175lbs. It seemed as if Dawson was on his way to becoming a major name in the sport but sadly he wasted the following year by rematching both Tarver and Johnson as his career started to stand still. What made those bouts worse for Dawson was that he merely looked to be going through the motions and doing just enough to bag enough rounds to win.
Things went from bad to worse for Dawson as he suffered his first (and so far only) professional loss just over 2 years ago losing to the Canadian based Haitian Jean Pascal. Sadly Dawson again attempted to do just enough to steal rounds, this time however it failed and after a clash of heads in round 11 left Dawson with a nasty gash the bout was taken to the cards early with the decision favouring Pascal. It was hoped by many that the loss to Pascal would ignite the fire under Dawson however just 9 months later on Dawson's return he again looked like a fighter who didn't really want to fight.
Dawson eventually re-claimed the WBC Light Heavyweight by defeating the legendary Bernard Hopkins (who had dethroned Pascal) on the second of trying after their first bout ended in a bizarre no contest.
In terms of style Dawson is a true frustration to watch. He's quick, he's powerful, he moves very well and throws some of the most wonderful combinations seen in the higher weights sadly however he's incredibly lazy in the ring and often fights down to his opponents level rather than attempting to impose himself on the fight and dominate his opponent with his strengths. If a trainer to could force Dawson to listen to him and follow instructions then Dawson has the potential to be something very special. As well a being naturally blessed with amazing speed Dawson is also blessed with a huge wingspan and a 76" reach, something that he can, when he's switched on, use amazingly well with his straight shots, though again it's a case of actually getting him to throw punches.
Whilst Dawson has made his name at Light Heavyweight and will be coming down, Andre Ward has made his reputation in the Super Middleweight division where he stands as the divisions kingpin. Not only is Ward the WBA "super" and WBC champion at 168lbs but he was also the winner of the inaugural "Super 6 Boxing Classic", a competition that saw him defeating Carl Froch, Arthur Abraham and Mikkel Kessler.
Like Dawson, Ward first made his name in the amateur ranks, however as an Amateur Ward was much, much more decorated. Not only did he run up a record of 114-5, he was also undefeated in several years, a multi-time national champion and most notably an Olympic Gold Medal winner.
Having won Gold at the Athens Olympics Ward soon turned professional and debuted at the end of 2004 by fighting as a Middleweight. Over the first few years of his career Ward slowly climbed the rankings, often defeating more experienced professionals with out too much trouble, though he did struggle with journeyman Darnell Boone.
Since 2009 Ward has become a fixture at the top of the Super Middleweight division having scored notable wins over Edison Miranda, Mikkel Kessler, Allan Green, Sakio Bika, Arthur Abraham (who won the WBO Super Middleweight title just a few weeks ago) and Carl Froch. It was the win over Kessler, in November 2009 that really put Ward on the boxing map as he out fought, out slicked and thoroughly out-boxed the highly regarded Dane to claim the WBA "super" title. The win over Carl Froch in December 2011 saw Ward then adding the WBC title to his collection and further proving he was the top dog.
Ward is a very skilled operator who despite his poor KO record is incredibly strong, very quick (with his hands, feet and body movement), slippery both inside and outside and has an uncanny knack of rarely being caught clean. At distance his jab is excellent and disrupts the rhythm opponents whilst up close Ward works hard to both the body and head of opponents whilst neutralising opponents excellently. Whilst he's a hugely gifted boxer he can be rather dull to watch due to many of his bouts becoming mauls, however he does have the ability to dominate fights with ease.
Going into the fight the biggest question is how will the weight effect Dawson? He's looked massive at Light Heavyweight and many feel he has had to drain himself to make 175lbs the extra 7lbs may make a huge difference to Dawson's durability and stamina. If he can make the weight with out damaging himself he could be a serious threat with his speed and combinations. If he can't make the weight with out issues he could find himself in an incredibly difficult bout.
For Dawson to win he needs to hope that not only he can cope with the lower weight but that he get up for this fight and actually keep up a solid pace. His usual style of working in short bursts with his electric hand speed simply won't work here as Ward will be on him. Dawson will not only need to be busier than usual but will also have to use his reach advantage (around 5") to try and neutralise Ward's excellent jab and keep him at range. If (and that' a big "if") he can put his foot on the gas for more than 45 seconds a round and use his jab he could surprise Ward and make this a competitive bout. If however the weight issue effects Dawson's stamina negatively this could be a long and hard night for him.
For Ward the key is to get inside the reach of Dawson and whilst he may have a very good jab himself, Wards reach disadvantage will be very noticeable. Thankfully for Ward he often finds a way to slip punches as he tries to get inside an opponent and bully them up close where he is sensational. When he gets inside of Dawson the inside work will seriously pay dividends and I imagine Ward will work the body well up close which should not only test the stamina of Dawson but also help slow the fast hands of the taller man.
If Dawson can stay active with his jab and keep Ward at range this could be a very even bout, however I can't help but think that Ward, with his excellent defense and work up close will do enough secure a decision. This could be the toughest bout of Ward's career if (and only if) Dawson can actually let his hands go with some regularity, though it's much more likely that Dawson will do little more than flurry once or twice a round whilst Ward smothers and lands up close in an unexciting 12 maul.
Prediction-Ward by decision in a rather mundane affair that has promise but never really springs to life.
For gamblers-
Ward is the a favourite at around 4/11 whilst Dawson is priced as high as 3/1.
Despite being the current WBC Light Heavyweight champion Chad Dawson will be dropping 7lbs to challenge for the Super Middleweight titles, a decision that I personally feel he will regret, however it is an in-built excuse for a loss.
Dawson made his professional debut back in 2001 after having had a solid Amateur career which saw him defeating current WBA Light Heavyweight champion Beibut Shumenov and claiming a number of amateur medals (notably a Bronze at the 2000 World Junior Championships). As a professional he showed a lot of early promise and quickly raced to the WBC Youth World Middleweight title in a little over 2 years.
Over the following years Dawson continued to rise through the rankings not only defending his WBC Youth title at Middleweight but also claiming the WBO NABO Super Middleweight title before finally moving to Light Heavyweight in 2006. It was at 175lbs that the athletically built Dawson really excelled and in early 2007 he claimed the first world title of his professional career as he out pointed the then unbeaten Tomaz Adamek for the WBC world title.
As the WBC champion Dawson made 3 title defenses with the highlight of them being a controversial decision win over veteran Glen Johnson. Instead of facing his mandatory challenger Dawson gave up his WBC title to instead face the IBF champion Antonio Tarver. Against Tarver we saw Dawson looking sensational as he claimed his second professional title and further secured his claim as one of the elite fighters at 175lbs. It seemed as if Dawson was on his way to becoming a major name in the sport but sadly he wasted the following year by rematching both Tarver and Johnson as his career started to stand still. What made those bouts worse for Dawson was that he merely looked to be going through the motions and doing just enough to bag enough rounds to win.
Things went from bad to worse for Dawson as he suffered his first (and so far only) professional loss just over 2 years ago losing to the Canadian based Haitian Jean Pascal. Sadly Dawson again attempted to do just enough to steal rounds, this time however it failed and after a clash of heads in round 11 left Dawson with a nasty gash the bout was taken to the cards early with the decision favouring Pascal. It was hoped by many that the loss to Pascal would ignite the fire under Dawson however just 9 months later on Dawson's return he again looked like a fighter who didn't really want to fight.
Dawson eventually re-claimed the WBC Light Heavyweight by defeating the legendary Bernard Hopkins (who had dethroned Pascal) on the second of trying after their first bout ended in a bizarre no contest.
In terms of style Dawson is a true frustration to watch. He's quick, he's powerful, he moves very well and throws some of the most wonderful combinations seen in the higher weights sadly however he's incredibly lazy in the ring and often fights down to his opponents level rather than attempting to impose himself on the fight and dominate his opponent with his strengths. If a trainer to could force Dawson to listen to him and follow instructions then Dawson has the potential to be something very special. As well a being naturally blessed with amazing speed Dawson is also blessed with a huge wingspan and a 76" reach, something that he can, when he's switched on, use amazingly well with his straight shots, though again it's a case of actually getting him to throw punches.
Whilst Dawson has made his name at Light Heavyweight and will be coming down, Andre Ward has made his reputation in the Super Middleweight division where he stands as the divisions kingpin. Not only is Ward the WBA "super" and WBC champion at 168lbs but he was also the winner of the inaugural "Super 6 Boxing Classic", a competition that saw him defeating Carl Froch, Arthur Abraham and Mikkel Kessler.
Like Dawson, Ward first made his name in the amateur ranks, however as an Amateur Ward was much, much more decorated. Not only did he run up a record of 114-5, he was also undefeated in several years, a multi-time national champion and most notably an Olympic Gold Medal winner.
Having won Gold at the Athens Olympics Ward soon turned professional and debuted at the end of 2004 by fighting as a Middleweight. Over the first few years of his career Ward slowly climbed the rankings, often defeating more experienced professionals with out too much trouble, though he did struggle with journeyman Darnell Boone.
Since 2009 Ward has become a fixture at the top of the Super Middleweight division having scored notable wins over Edison Miranda, Mikkel Kessler, Allan Green, Sakio Bika, Arthur Abraham (who won the WBO Super Middleweight title just a few weeks ago) and Carl Froch. It was the win over Kessler, in November 2009 that really put Ward on the boxing map as he out fought, out slicked and thoroughly out-boxed the highly regarded Dane to claim the WBA "super" title. The win over Carl Froch in December 2011 saw Ward then adding the WBC title to his collection and further proving he was the top dog.
Ward is a very skilled operator who despite his poor KO record is incredibly strong, very quick (with his hands, feet and body movement), slippery both inside and outside and has an uncanny knack of rarely being caught clean. At distance his jab is excellent and disrupts the rhythm opponents whilst up close Ward works hard to both the body and head of opponents whilst neutralising opponents excellently. Whilst he's a hugely gifted boxer he can be rather dull to watch due to many of his bouts becoming mauls, however he does have the ability to dominate fights with ease.
Going into the fight the biggest question is how will the weight effect Dawson? He's looked massive at Light Heavyweight and many feel he has had to drain himself to make 175lbs the extra 7lbs may make a huge difference to Dawson's durability and stamina. If he can make the weight with out damaging himself he could be a serious threat with his speed and combinations. If he can't make the weight with out issues he could find himself in an incredibly difficult bout.
For Dawson to win he needs to hope that not only he can cope with the lower weight but that he get up for this fight and actually keep up a solid pace. His usual style of working in short bursts with his electric hand speed simply won't work here as Ward will be on him. Dawson will not only need to be busier than usual but will also have to use his reach advantage (around 5") to try and neutralise Ward's excellent jab and keep him at range. If (and that' a big "if") he can put his foot on the gas for more than 45 seconds a round and use his jab he could surprise Ward and make this a competitive bout. If however the weight issue effects Dawson's stamina negatively this could be a long and hard night for him.
For Ward the key is to get inside the reach of Dawson and whilst he may have a very good jab himself, Wards reach disadvantage will be very noticeable. Thankfully for Ward he often finds a way to slip punches as he tries to get inside an opponent and bully them up close where he is sensational. When he gets inside of Dawson the inside work will seriously pay dividends and I imagine Ward will work the body well up close which should not only test the stamina of Dawson but also help slow the fast hands of the taller man.
If Dawson can stay active with his jab and keep Ward at range this could be a very even bout, however I can't help but think that Ward, with his excellent defense and work up close will do enough secure a decision. This could be the toughest bout of Ward's career if (and only if) Dawson can actually let his hands go with some regularity, though it's much more likely that Dawson will do little more than flurry once or twice a round whilst Ward smothers and lands up close in an unexciting 12 maul.
Prediction-Ward by decision in a rather mundane affair that has promise but never really springs to life.
For gamblers-
Ward is the a favourite at around 4/11 whilst Dawson is priced as high as 3/1.
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