Friday, 29 November 2013

Paul Spadafora v Johan Perez

American Paul Spadafora (48-0-1, 19) has one of the longest unbeaten runs in the sport of boxing. Despite his long unbeaten streak, that dates back to 1995, Spadafora has been one of the most frustrating fighters to follow. What should have been an excellent career in the 90's and early 00's became little more than a waste of time, despite a 4 year reign as the IBF Lightweight champion.

Unfortunately Spadafora, who is known to many as "the guy that beat Floyd Mayweather up in Sparring", has been a man who has combined his talented with some seriously bad choices and extra-curricular activities which has seen him serving time in prison and really wasting a number of his prime years.

Spadafora looks to get back to the top this weekend when he fights for the WBA interim Light Welterweight title. The unbeaten man, who goes by the moniker of "The Pittsburgh Kid" despite being 38 years old, will not be in a "gimme" fight however as he takes on Johan Perez (17-1-1, 12).

Although Perez, of Venezuela, is much less well known than the American he is himself a certified world level fighter having been a former holder of this very title. Unfortunately however Perez is best known to many as a man who lost to Pablo Cesar Cano last year, despite having put on a boxing clinic against Japan's Yoshihiro Kamegai earlier this year.

At his best Spadafora was a very good fighter. He never had the talent to be a "special" fighter but was good. That was however a good decade ago and he's now heading to 40 years old and is with out a notable victory in over a decade. He's not the fighter he was and he's unlikely to ever be another genuine name on the world stage.

Perez, although unsuccessful against Cano, is an excellent boxer and has great movement and intelligent skills. He's not a big puncher but he's a clever enough fighter to make the most of his strengths and is likely to do so here.

Sadly for Perez he is going to West Virginia for this contest and fighting in the same venue that Spadafora has fought his last 3 contests in. I personally think Perez will be the more impressive man in the ring though unfortunately Spadafora will some how manage to get the win with many fans wondering what they had just seen.

Prediction-Spadafora SD12 (VERY controversially)

Xiong Zhao Zhong v Lookrak Kiatmungmee

This weekend's most over-looked, though rightfully so, world title fight is in China as Xiong Zhao Zhong (21-4-1, 11) looks to make the second defense of his WBC Minimumweight title. Originally Zhong was listed to fight Omari Kimweri though unfortunately Kimweri has had issues with his passport and instead been replaced by inactive Thai Lookrak Kiatmungmee (7-4, 4) who is one of the weakest and least qualified world title challengers in recent memory.

Unfortunately for Zhong this was supposed to be his chance to defend in front of his people against a credible, though somewhat obscure, opponent. Instead Zhong will be facing a man who has been inactive for around 2 years and was far from a world beater when he was active.

Zhong, a strong, powerful, tough and bullish fighter is a real beast at 105lbs. He is far from "boxer" but is a fighter and very tough to discourage. Against Kiatmungmee it's difficult to see anything but a Zhong victory via stoppage as he walks through the limited Thai.

For Kiatmungmee he's really not got a chance, however it's great that he's filled in to allow Zhong his chance at history.

Prediction-Zhong TKO5

Thursday, 28 November 2013

Donnie Nietes v Sammy Gutierrez

If any active champion is very lucky right now it's Donnie Nietes (31-1-4, 17) who got one of the luckiest decisions in boxing earlier this year when he defended his WBO Light Flyweight title with a draw over Moises Funetes. Nietes, who out punched, out fought, out worked and generally dominated by Fuentes deserved to lose his title back then yet some how got bailed out with the draw.

Nietes will be defending his title for the first time since that controversial contest with Fuentes as he battles another Mexican, Sammy Gutierrez (33-9-2, 23) a man who himself once claimed a portion of the world crown at Minimumweight.

At his best Gutierrez was a challenge for near enough anyone at 105 or even 108 and going through his opponents reads as a whose who. Unfortunately however Gutierrez wasn't a stand out fighter. He was a very credible fighter though someone who just seemed to come up short against the real world class fighters. For example he was stopped by Nkosinathi Joyi and out pointed by Omar Nino Romero, Raul Garcia and Juan Palacios.

The down fall for Gutierrez has been quick as well. Just 3 years ago he was the WBA interim champion but now he's struggling to string wins together and has gone 3-3 in his last 6 and 5-4 in his last 9. Yes, this is a fighter who is paying for his wars in the ring despite only being 27.

Whilst I'd also say that Nietes is regressing as a fighter in recent years he's not totally dropping off a cliff like Gutierrez. He's struggling for sure but there is enough left in the tank for him to keep his title despite some poor performances.

At his very best Nietes was a fringe pound-for-pound fighter who could do it all. Now however he's someone who struggles. He struggled with Fuentes, he struggled with Felipe Salguero and he struggled with Ramon Hirales Garcia. Maybe it's because Nietes isn't a natural Light Flyweight but personally I think it's the fact he's forgetting some of the things that made him so good at Minimumweight.

In regards to this bout, I think Nietes has enough left to stop the shadow of Gutierrez but don't let a good performance here belie the fact that Nietes isn't half the fighter he once was. This is a man who is very fortunate to call himself a world champion and likely won't be able to for too much longer.

Prediction-Nietes TKO8

Merlito Sabillo v Carlos Buitrago

The next few days are amongst the most important in Minimumweight history. Inside a week the WBC, WBO and IBF titles will all be up for grabs and they will all be fought for across Asia.

For me the most interesting of those three bouts is for the WBO title as the unbeaten Filipino Merlito Sabillo (23-0, 12) looks to make the second defense of his title. Sabillo, who successfully defended his belt Jorle Estrada in July, will be facing his third successive Latin America as he takes on unbeaten Nicaraguan Carlos Buitrago (27-0-0-1, 16) in what looks likely to be a special contest.

Of the two men it's probably the challenger who is better known by boxing fans due to the huge amount of hype and expectation Buitrago has had on his shoulders over the past few years. The Nicaraguan, viewed by many as next great fighter from that country, has been tipped as a world champion since he was just a teenager.

It was about 4 years ago that hardcore fans began to hear about a Nicaraguan wonder kid who had the natural tools to go a long, long way. Of course some kids fail to ever reach their potential but Buitrago built on his excellent skills and has shown, in a number of fights, that he can do almost anything.

Unlike many South American's Buitrago has built his style on fundamental building blocks. This has seen him developing an excellent jab, a great straight and wonderful movement. Sure he has been showing it against mostly limited opponents but the fact that he has those tools in his locker is invaluable at the world level.

Although Buitrago is well known it's odd that the champion really isn't. In fact prior to this year almost nobody in the sport was talking about Merlito Sabillo, who has now become one of real dangermen at 105lbs.

Sabillo first popped on to the world stage courtesy of a stunning stoppage over Luis De La Rosa in Colombia back in March. This victory over De La Rosa, an all out war, saw Sabillo claiming the WBO interim world title that was later upgraded to the regular title when Moises Fuentes moved up to the Light Flyweight division.

Sabillo is a bit more of a warrior than Buitrago, in fact he was apparently spotted having street fights prior to becoming a professional boxer. He looks tough, he looks strong and although his record doesn't indicate it he does hit hard, as shown by the fact he has stopped his last 5 opponents.

It's this growing power and belief in Sabillo that makes me favour him by stoppage over the Nicaraguan visitor. In terms of pure boxing skills Buitrago is better but something makes me think that Sabillo's "street fighter" heart will come out and he'll eventually get close and break Buitrago down in the later rounds of an absolute classic.

Prediction-Sabillo TKO11

Sergey Kovalev v Ismayl Sillakh

If we think about fighters who have emerged from obscurity this year few rival the destructive Sergey Kovalev (22-0-1, 20). Kovalev, who a year ago was fighting the likes of Lionell Thompson ad Darnell Boone. is now the WBO Light Heavyweight champion and a man that fans feel the need to watch.

The destructive Kovalev has had a career defining year in 2013 defeating the highly regarded Gabriel Campillo in 3 rounds, the world ranked Cornelius White, also in 3 rounds, and the then WBO world champion in 4 rounds. Although he has only been in 10 rounds of action through the whole year he left a pile of bodies in his wake and none are ever likely to be the same fighter they once were.

What Kovalev does so well is he destroys whilst doing the basics well. He's not the reckless force of nature like Srisaket Sor Rungvisai but is a calm and controlled wrecking ball who uses a high work rate, lots of sharp straight shots and a grinding mentality. He seems to know that whilst no single show may take an opponent out cold his sheer work rate will break them mentally and physically, as shown against Cleverly who was a broken man after just 3 rounds.

What Kovalev also has, as well as his work rate and heavy hands, is the mentality that even if he takes one he'll have the opponent backing up taking the power off the shot anyway. No one wants a tear up with this guy and with good reason, he's a monster!

Whilst Kovalev has gone from total obscurity to world champion in the space of two years his challenger, Ismayl Sillakh (21-1, 17), has gone from a promising fighter to who?

Sillakh was once viewed as a superstar in the making with flair, a fun to watch style and similarities to Roy Jones Jr. Unfortunately a set back loss to Denis Grachev last year took all his momentum and left many wondering whether or not he had the chin to go up to the next level. He had the skills, and power for sure but if a fighter hasn't got the ability to take a punch then they will always have question marks over their head.

Whilst Sillakh has bounced back from the loss to Grachev with with 4 victories, including 3 by stoppage, they have been against very weak opponents and the step up from them to Kovalev is a massive step up. A step up that I can't see Sillakh making at this point in time.

Although certainly dangerous I have a feeling that Sillakh will walk on to a bomb at some point and Kovalev, one of the best finishers in the game, will turn it up forcing the referee to save Sillakh. And by that I aren;t using Howard Foster's definition of saving a fighter, if Sillakh is allowed to continue whilst hurt he will almost certainly end up in hospital due to Kovalev's destructiveness.

Prediction-Kovalev TKO5

Wednesday, 27 November 2013

Adonis Stevenson v Tony Bellew

Right now British boxing is clearly under a dark cloud due to the controversial ending to the recent Carl Froch/George Groves bout that ended with one of the worst stoppages of the year. It's unlikely that British boxing will immediately recover but one man attempting to re-affirm how good it can be is Scouser Tony Bellew (20-1-1, 12) who this week travels to Canada and battles Canadian based Haitian Adonis Stevenson (22-1, 19) for the WBC and Ring Magazine Light Heavyweight titles.

Bellew, who was once regarded as a big puncher himself, will be fighting in his second world title fight after fighting to a majority decision loss to Welshman Nathan Cleverly a little over 2 years ago. Since that loss Bellew has been a man who has been fighting for a second world title opportunity and has been through Danny McIntosh, Edison Miranda, Roberto Feliciano Bolonti and Isaac Chilemba, who he has also drawn against.

In his first first 15 fights Bellew had scored 10 stoppages and seemed to have belief in his power. Once suggesting that if he connects on anyone in the division he'd destroy them. Since then however he has managed 2 stoppages in 7 fights proving that his belief in his own power is very much over-stated and in all honesty his nickname of "Bomber" seems less apt after ever fight.

As well as the over-rated power Bellew also appears to have a some what shaky chin having been down against the likes of Bob Ajisafe and Ovill McKenzie. Of course those fights were 3 years ago but it still needs to be a worry to the Brit, especially when you consider who he is facing.

Those flaws of Bellew has forced him to use his boxing skills and although he's no longer taking people out he is showing some great in-ring traits such as using his jab properly, controlling the distance well with his fantastic reach and showing a lot more maturity from the man who had a large mouth early in his career. Unfortunately however that mature head can blow and he can do some very stupid things, as he did several times in the first bout with Chilemba. When he keeps his cool he's a threat to anybody but when frustrated he's only a threat to himself.

Unfortunately for Bellew he's up against one of the most destructive men in world boxing. Adonis "Superman" Stevenson is one of those rare fighters blesesd with fight changing power in both hands, a jab feels like a straight and a straight feels like a ramrod. What's makes things worse for his opponents is that he's added more and more boxing to his game.

As shown in Stevenson's victory over Tavoris Cloud he can box as well as bang and his movement, shot selection and over-all gameplan is very much that of a world level fighter. When you have Stevenson's power it can be easy to ignore the basics but thankfully for Stevenson he was built up by the late Manny Steward and those boxing fundamentals have started to be utilised to their best.

Going in to this fight we can actually have two things. We could have a boxing contest, which would give Bellew a slight chance as long as he starts faster than Stevenson, or we could have a tear up. I'd imagine the fight will start with a bit of boxing, both men trying to establish their jabs. The one who can't get the jab going will be the first to change their plan and this will likely determine the next 2 or 3 rounds. Unfortunately however it's only a matter of time before Stevenson connects with a straight that sends Bellew crumpling to the canvas.

I imagine the heart of Bellew will help him to his feet but he'll only get tagged again until the referee has seen enough. The stoppage will be legit but yet Bellew will try to make out that he was fine and rather than taking the defeat graciously I think we may see the immaturity come out in the end and further the dark cloud over British boxing after putting up a brave effort.

Prediction-Stevenson TKO6

Koki Eto v Yodmongkol Vor Saengthep

Whilst Asia is often viewed as being under-the-radar by boxing fans a number of Asian fights do seem to be able to become success courtesy of things like Youtube and various video sharers. One such fight was that of Koki Eto (14-2-1, 10) and Kompayak Porpramook from earlier this year. That contest, for the WBA interim Flyweight title was one of this years best fights and deserves to be considered on any FOTY list come the end of December.

Eto returns to Thailand, where that bout took place, as he takes on another Thai opponent Yodmongkol Vor Saengthep (32-2, 19) a man some fans may know better as Yodmongol CP Freshmart.

So far in Eto's career he has been the only one of three brothers to compete on the world stage. It was fair to say prior to his bout with Kompayak I didn't think he had what it took to defeat the Thai war machine but yet he out fought Kompayak in a thriller. What he proved there however was that he was a monster with solid fundamentals, when he needed them, a warriors mentality and engine like very others. He took it to Kompayak from the opening round and slowly ground down and beat the spirit out of Kompayak who was dropped in the final round, and would have been stopped had he not been at home or had his reputation for being a warrior.

With his victory over Kompayak, Eto created history due to the fact he was the first ever Japanese man to win a world title fight on Thailand. Unlike many fighters from Japan who had gone over to Thailand he seemed very happy in the conditions which are very unique. The thing about Thailand is that fights are held out door, in the middle of the day and often with searing heat. These conditions clearly favour the Thai's who are used to them but really don't do favours for foreigners going to fights over there.

When it comes to Yodmongkol he's a fighter than many who follow the Thai scene will have seen but nothing really stands out about him in terms of what he does in the ring. That's not a bad thing but he just seems like a very standard fighter, despite looking slightly more technically proficient than a number of other Thai's. He has nice enough hand speed but nothing amazing.

What Yodmongkol however does have is real confidence. He is on a 28 fight winning streak and although his level of competition has been average at best he is a fighter who will be used to the Thai conditions and a man fighting for the honour of Thailand, and his stablemate Kompayak (another of the CP Freshmart fighters).

Although I imagine Yodmongkol will show a lot of desire to win I can't help but think that Eto will manage to break him down. The only reason Kompayak wasn't stopped is that he's a tough, tough man and I don't think Yodmongkol has that same toughness either physically or mentally to withstand the Eto assault for 12 rounds.

Prediction-Eto TKO 9