This past Saturday saw Psaul Spadafora eventually suffering the first defeat of his career. The "Pittsburgh Kid" simply fought on too long and fought someone too good to only be a shadow of their former self.
On man hoping to avoid the same fate as Spadafora will be Indonesia's Chris John (48-0-3, 22) who looks to defend his "Super" WBA Featherweight title this Friday in Australia. The long time unbeaten Indonesian, who has been accused of fighting poor challengers throughout his career, will this week be facing premier level challenger in the form of Simpiwe Vetyeka (25-2, 15).
John, the holder of one of the most impressive records in the sport and one of the longest title reigns, is a fighter who at his best sensational. He had great handspeed, every punch in the book, fantastic movement and the ability to unload some lovely combinations. As he's aged he's slowed however and his speed has gone, the legs have slowed and he's been forced to fight more in the pocket.
Against fighters like Shoji Kimura, Stanyslav Merdov and Chonlatarn Piriyapinyo we've seen John get away with fighting in the pocket due to his superior skill-set and ability. Against Satoshi Hosono however John was being dragged into a fight he didn't want, prior the the unsatisfying conclusion to the bout.
I feel that if the Hosono fight had reached a natural conclusion we'd have seen John needing to dig as deep as he's ever dug to have kept a hold of his title. That might be because I rate Hosono highly, but I'm not sure if that's all it is.
If I can be accused of rating Hosono highly then the same accusation can also be sent to me regarding Simpiwe Vetyeka. The South African has impressed me in both of his profile bouts, both of which were in Asia.
The first major bout for Vetyeka saw him dropping a narrow decision to the WBC Bantamweight champion Hozumi Hasegawa. He pushed Hasegawa hard, took the best shots of the Japanese fighter and really give him hell. Vetyeka built on that result earlier this year when he stopped the teak tough Daud Cino Yordan, John's countryman.
Vetyeka has proven that he's tough, skilled, fast and technically very solid all round. He moves excellently, has a hard stiff and yet quick jab, the ability to fire his jab off whilst moving and really he's a very, very accomplished fighter. Not the sort of fighter John should be viewing as a patsy.
For me it's the movement and speed of Vetyeka which will actually see the upset occur. Vetyeka will refuse to trade in the pocket early rather sticking to his boxing and movement to allow him to rack up rounds with clever boxing. By round 8 or 9 he'll slow down and mix it on the inside though by then John will need a knockdown or two to retain. He'll not get any.
For the second successive week I think we'll see a long unbeaten run broken by a younger and fresher fighter.
Prediction-Vetyeka by Split Decision
Showing posts with label Australia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Australia. Show all posts
Tuesday, 3 December 2013
Thursday, 28 February 2013
Billy Dib v Evgeny Gradovich
Australian IBF Featherweight champion Billy Dib (35-1-0-1, 21) has become a bit of a forgotten man in the Featherweight division despite his world title. This weekend gives him a huge chance to make boxing fans remember his name as he travels to the US to face unbeaten US based Russian Evgeny Gradovich (15-0, 8) live on ESPN Friday Night Fights.
Going in to the fight Dib is the favourite, priced around 2/5, however for many this is based more on his experience than anything else. He's not shown himself to have world quality skills in fact in his only bout with a genuine world level fighter Dib was made to look genuinely poor as Steve Luevano literally abused him in the ring.
Whilst Dib does have a pretty looking record and a shiny title, his best victories haven't been great. In fact his best victory may well be his controversial decision victory over South African Zolani Marali back in 2008 or his stoppage over Mexican Eduardo Escobedo in 2012 (who retired after the 6th round). Not exactly the credentials of a top fighter in a division which has had real quality over the last few years.
To many Dib's most infamous bout was with Luevano back in 2008 for the WBO Featherweight title, in fact that was the last time Dib fought outside of his homeland. The performance of Dib against Luevano was poor and although the judges some how had the fight close he really showed little more than the ability to use his feet to get away from Luevano who rocked him numerous times. Saying that however Dib is an improved fighter and is now a fully fledged man at 27 years old. He still has the fast feet and has fast hands though his power is over-rated on his record and he's not a hugely strong fighter.
Whilst Dib may have the edge in professional experience the unbeaten Gradovich is certainly not a novice to the ring. As well as his 15 professional bouts (totaling 83 rounds) he also had a long amateur career (reportedly 160 fights) and has had quality sparring sessions at the Garcia gym with Robert Garcia.
As well as the amateur pedigree of Gradovich he's also got home advantage with the fight taking place in the US. Admittedly it's not in his home town, but he's closer to home than Dib who has had to travel overseas for this bout. Gradovich has been fighting through out the US since turning professional back in 2010 and to some he's seen as a US fighter.
The biggest issue for Gradovich may be due to his competition so far. I know I said that Dib lacks the quality of wins expected of a title holder, he still has much better wins that Gradovich who has faced very limited opposition so far with former world title challenger Francisco Leal probably being the the best name on his record. Despite this Gradovich does go into the bout with the confidence of being unbeaten and with the knowledge that he's the under-dog and has little expectation on his shoulders.
In terms of his style Gradovich fights much more like a Mexican than a Russian, hence his playful nickname of "The Mexican Russian", he throws a lot of punches and tries to break fighters both mentally and physically. He'll have to show his ability to cut the ring off against Dib, though if he can and if he can hammer away at the body of Dib, slowing the champions wheels, he may well force a stoppage late.
For Dib this fight is a must win fight. A loss here will see him almost banned from fighting in the US and with out a title few will be eager to face him. He knows the pressure will be on him, especially when you consider that promoter 50 Cent is backing him hard, however it maybe his promotional ties that help here with 50 Cent arguably having some pull. Saying that though, I don't know if he has enough to discourage the aggressive and hard working Russian.
Prediction- Gradovich by TKO11.
Betting-Gradovich to win can be got around 11/4 whilst Dib is 2/5
Going in to the fight Dib is the favourite, priced around 2/5, however for many this is based more on his experience than anything else. He's not shown himself to have world quality skills in fact in his only bout with a genuine world level fighter Dib was made to look genuinely poor as Steve Luevano literally abused him in the ring.
Whilst Dib does have a pretty looking record and a shiny title, his best victories haven't been great. In fact his best victory may well be his controversial decision victory over South African Zolani Marali back in 2008 or his stoppage over Mexican Eduardo Escobedo in 2012 (who retired after the 6th round). Not exactly the credentials of a top fighter in a division which has had real quality over the last few years.
To many Dib's most infamous bout was with Luevano back in 2008 for the WBO Featherweight title, in fact that was the last time Dib fought outside of his homeland. The performance of Dib against Luevano was poor and although the judges some how had the fight close he really showed little more than the ability to use his feet to get away from Luevano who rocked him numerous times. Saying that however Dib is an improved fighter and is now a fully fledged man at 27 years old. He still has the fast feet and has fast hands though his power is over-rated on his record and he's not a hugely strong fighter.
Whilst Dib may have the edge in professional experience the unbeaten Gradovich is certainly not a novice to the ring. As well as his 15 professional bouts (totaling 83 rounds) he also had a long amateur career (reportedly 160 fights) and has had quality sparring sessions at the Garcia gym with Robert Garcia.
As well as the amateur pedigree of Gradovich he's also got home advantage with the fight taking place in the US. Admittedly it's not in his home town, but he's closer to home than Dib who has had to travel overseas for this bout. Gradovich has been fighting through out the US since turning professional back in 2010 and to some he's seen as a US fighter.
The biggest issue for Gradovich may be due to his competition so far. I know I said that Dib lacks the quality of wins expected of a title holder, he still has much better wins that Gradovich who has faced very limited opposition so far with former world title challenger Francisco Leal probably being the the best name on his record. Despite this Gradovich does go into the bout with the confidence of being unbeaten and with the knowledge that he's the under-dog and has little expectation on his shoulders.
In terms of his style Gradovich fights much more like a Mexican than a Russian, hence his playful nickname of "The Mexican Russian", he throws a lot of punches and tries to break fighters both mentally and physically. He'll have to show his ability to cut the ring off against Dib, though if he can and if he can hammer away at the body of Dib, slowing the champions wheels, he may well force a stoppage late.
For Dib this fight is a must win fight. A loss here will see him almost banned from fighting in the US and with out a title few will be eager to face him. He knows the pressure will be on him, especially when you consider that promoter 50 Cent is backing him hard, however it maybe his promotional ties that help here with 50 Cent arguably having some pull. Saying that though, I don't know if he has enough to discourage the aggressive and hard working Russian.
Prediction- Gradovich by TKO11.
Betting-Gradovich to win can be got around 11/4 whilst Dib is 2/5
Tuesday, 29 January 2013
Daniel Geale v Anthony Mundine II
The only world title fight of this week oddly takes place on a Wednesday as Australian boxing fans see their only world champion, IBF Middleweight title holder Daniel Geale (28-1, 15) face off against domestic rival Anthony Mundine (44-4, 26), in a rematch of their controversial 2009 encounter that Mundine narrowly won.
When the two men first faced off Geale, then unbeaten at 21-0 was seen as the notable under-dog priced at around 3/1. Not only was he less experienced than Mudine, then 35-3 but also perceived as the naturally smaller man with Mundine campaigning as a Super Middleweight whilst Geale was a Middleweight as well as having faced much easier touches than Mundine who had been a world champion at Super Middleweight.
A lot has changed since then their first fight however and Geale is now considered not just the favourite but also as one of the best fighters in the Middleweight division. Not only does he hold an alphabet belt but he holds notable victories over Roman Karmazin, Sebastian Sylvester and Felix Sturm and has proven himself on the road winning two major decisions in Germany, something that that is incredibly rare for any fighter.
Despite unifying the IBF and WBA Middleweight belts, the political situation of the WBA has seen Geale stripped of that belt though boxing fans do rightfully regard Geale as a top guy at Middleweight, in fact some have him at #2 behind Sergio Martinez (other fans have him at #3 behind Gennady Golovkin as well).
In terms of his style Geale is a true hard worker, he's relentless in his attacks throwing 100's of punches up close as he attempts to break down opponents. Although he lacks world level power he has shown a genuinely world level engine and the cumulative effects of his shots are tiring especially as he never seems to slow down. Sadly for Geale it's fair to say that if he had the power to match his work rate he'd be one of the sports top guys pound-for-pound. The champion couples his extreme work rate with a genuine toughness and a dog like tenacity that will refuse to back down, this makes him a very serious opponent for anyone.
At 37 years old, Mundine, the challenger, is coming to the end of his eventful career. Mundine has literally gone from one sport to another having been a former professional rugby player before turning his sights on to the squared circle where he has been surprisingly successful having held various titles since his debut in 2000. The highlights of Mundine's career have understandably been his 2 reigns as the WBA World Super Middleweight champion and reign as the WBA Light Middleweight interim champion. Of course his previous titles would allow to become a 3-weight champion if he were to beat Geale for the IBF title.
As well the highlights for Mundine there have also been the down points both in and out of the ring. Notable being one of only 6 stoppage victims of Sven Ottke back in 2001, though also losing his world title at home to Puerto Rican Manny Siaca and suffering a stoppage loss in 2010 to novice Garth Woods. Away from the ring Mundine's mouth has been a source of issues including comments about the September 11 attacks and personal comments made towards Geale, comments that Geale will likely want to punish Mundine for.
In terms of his talent Mundine is a very talented fighter, he's tough (despite suffering 2 stoppage losses), he's fit, he's tricky and he can play dirty. At his peak he was a genuinely talented boxer with a decent punch (though certainly no world level banger) and under-rated skills. In recent years however father time has started to catch up with him and he's faced low level or fading opponents who were there to lose to him.
Sadly for "The Man" it's fair to say that for Geale this is personal. The champion, as mentioned above, was stripped of his WBA title for taking this bout, he's wanting revenge for the comments Mundine has made about him and he wants to avenge his only professional defeat. This time as the betting favourite and as a confident, much more developed fighter Geale will almost certainly out work, and punish Mundine. Don't expect this one to finish early, Mundine is a tough cookie and Geale isn't a banger, but expect it to be a very one sided beat down.
Prediction-Daniel Geale UD12
When the two men first faced off Geale, then unbeaten at 21-0 was seen as the notable under-dog priced at around 3/1. Not only was he less experienced than Mudine, then 35-3 but also perceived as the naturally smaller man with Mundine campaigning as a Super Middleweight whilst Geale was a Middleweight as well as having faced much easier touches than Mundine who had been a world champion at Super Middleweight.
A lot has changed since then their first fight however and Geale is now considered not just the favourite but also as one of the best fighters in the Middleweight division. Not only does he hold an alphabet belt but he holds notable victories over Roman Karmazin, Sebastian Sylvester and Felix Sturm and has proven himself on the road winning two major decisions in Germany, something that that is incredibly rare for any fighter.
Despite unifying the IBF and WBA Middleweight belts, the political situation of the WBA has seen Geale stripped of that belt though boxing fans do rightfully regard Geale as a top guy at Middleweight, in fact some have him at #2 behind Sergio Martinez (other fans have him at #3 behind Gennady Golovkin as well).
In terms of his style Geale is a true hard worker, he's relentless in his attacks throwing 100's of punches up close as he attempts to break down opponents. Although he lacks world level power he has shown a genuinely world level engine and the cumulative effects of his shots are tiring especially as he never seems to slow down. Sadly for Geale it's fair to say that if he had the power to match his work rate he'd be one of the sports top guys pound-for-pound. The champion couples his extreme work rate with a genuine toughness and a dog like tenacity that will refuse to back down, this makes him a very serious opponent for anyone.
At 37 years old, Mundine, the challenger, is coming to the end of his eventful career. Mundine has literally gone from one sport to another having been a former professional rugby player before turning his sights on to the squared circle where he has been surprisingly successful having held various titles since his debut in 2000. The highlights of Mundine's career have understandably been his 2 reigns as the WBA World Super Middleweight champion and reign as the WBA Light Middleweight interim champion. Of course his previous titles would allow to become a 3-weight champion if he were to beat Geale for the IBF title.
As well the highlights for Mundine there have also been the down points both in and out of the ring. Notable being one of only 6 stoppage victims of Sven Ottke back in 2001, though also losing his world title at home to Puerto Rican Manny Siaca and suffering a stoppage loss in 2010 to novice Garth Woods. Away from the ring Mundine's mouth has been a source of issues including comments about the September 11 attacks and personal comments made towards Geale, comments that Geale will likely want to punish Mundine for.
In terms of his talent Mundine is a very talented fighter, he's tough (despite suffering 2 stoppage losses), he's fit, he's tricky and he can play dirty. At his peak he was a genuinely talented boxer with a decent punch (though certainly no world level banger) and under-rated skills. In recent years however father time has started to catch up with him and he's faced low level or fading opponents who were there to lose to him.
Sadly for "The Man" it's fair to say that for Geale this is personal. The champion, as mentioned above, was stripped of his WBA title for taking this bout, he's wanting revenge for the comments Mundine has made about him and he wants to avenge his only professional defeat. This time as the betting favourite and as a confident, much more developed fighter Geale will almost certainly out work, and punish Mundine. Don't expect this one to finish early, Mundine is a tough cookie and Geale isn't a banger, but expect it to be a very one sided beat down.
Prediction-Daniel Geale UD12
Saturday, 1 September 2012
Felix Sturm v Daniel Geale
Unification fights seem to becoming rarer and rarer in today's boxing world and when they happen they genuinely deserve to have some attention. With that in mind I'm personally very excited about the up coming Middleweight unification bout between long term WBA "Super" champion Felix Sturm (37-2-2, 16) and the IBF champion, Australian Daniel Geale (27-1, 15).
Firstly we'll look at Sturm who at 33 years old is the older fighter though is far from a shot fighter going on the evidence of his last bout, a TKO9 over Sebastian Zbik. Sturm started his professional career back in 2001 and with in 3 years he had claimed the WBO Middleweight title thanks to a controversial victory over Argentinian Hector Javier Velazco. Sturn had been a very late replacement for former champion Bert Schenk (who was forced to pull out due to illness) taking the fight with just a couple of days notice though was impressive on in his first major professional bout.
After scoring a clear points victory over Ruben Varon in his only defense, Sturm lost his title, controversially, to American superstar Oscar De La Hoya just 9 months after winning it. Despite this loss Sturm had proven he could hang with top level fighters and he took little time climbing his way back to the top of the rankings, this time viewing the WBA title as the one he wanted. A little over a year after losing to De La Hoya, Sturm had claimed the mandatory position for the WBA Middleweight title.
With William Joppy (the WBA "regular" champion) losing against Bernard Hopkins (the WBA "Super" champion) the WBA vacated their regular title which was later won by Maselino Masoe who surprisingly stopped Evans Ashira (who would later go on to take Joe Calzaghe the distance). Masoe's reign was very short lived with Sturm defeating him in his only defence to become a 2-time world champion.
Sturm would surprisingly lose in his first defense of his WBA title as he was stopped in round 10 against Spanish veteran Javier Castillejo, a former WBC Light Middleweight champion. In a rematch just 9 months later Sturm would avenge his defeat and reclaim the WBA title by out pointing Castillejo in a hugely disputed bout that Spaniard's team were very unhappy about.
Since reclaiming the title from Castillejo back in April 2007 Sturm has amassed an incredible 12 title defenses (including 10 wins and draws). Included in those defences were Noe Gonzalez Alcoba (UD12), Randy Griffin (D12 and UD12), Jamie Pittman (TKO7), Sebastian Sylvester (UD12), Koji Sato (TKO7), Khoren Gevor (UD12), Giovanni Lorenzo (UD12), Ronald Hearns (TKO7), Matthew Macklin (SD12-in a hugely controversial bout), Martin Murray (D12) and Sebastian Zbik (TKO7), with the title being upgraded to the "Super" title after the victory over Gevor.
As well as being a long reigning champion of over 5 years Sturm is best known in the ring for his hard, accurate and razor sharp jab, a punch that he often dominates opponents with. Whilst not being a hugely powerful fighter Sturm's jab is hurtful and can bust up fighters with it's alarming cleanness. Outside of the jab however Sturm is very average with solid but unspectacular uppercuts and appears to like to work at his own pace preferring quality of work rather than quantity.
Unlike Sturm, Australian Geale, aged 31, is a relatively new champion having claimed the IBF title just last year as he out pointed former Sturm opponent Sebastian Sylvester by split decision to end Sylvester's controversial 18 month reign. This was a solid rise to the top for Geale who only started his own professional career in 2004.
Geale, who debuted in October 2004 started his career with 21 straight wins, including impressive victories over fellow Australian Daniel Dawson and the teak tough Serbian Geard Ajetovic, suffered his first (and only) professional loss in 2009 against Anthony Mundine. Mudine, a former 2-time world champion at Super Middleweight, controversially out pointed Geale by split decision in one of the most controversial bouts in Australian boxing in modern times.
Since controversially losing to Mundine in 2009 Geale has been on an excellent run of results with 6 straight victories including 3 in world title bouts. Before claiming the IBF world title Geale had to earn his mandatory position, to do this he would have to get past the experienced Russian Roman Karmazin. Karmazin, a former IBF Light Middleweight champion had taken the then reigning IBF Middleweight champion Sebastian Sylvester to a controversial draw (with many feeling Karmazin was robbed). Geale was hugely impressive in not only beating Karmazin but becoming just the second man to stop the Russian in 47 bouts.
Having earned his shot at the title Geale traveled to Germany to face Sylvester as the slight under-dog despite many expecting Geale to need to score a KO to win. Geale set off at a lightning quick pace completely outworking the then champion to take a narrow split decision. Whilst Sylvester's shots seemed to be the much harder, cleaner blows he was just simply out worked in too many rounds to deny the Australian.
Since winning the title Geale has made two defences out pointing the thoroughly outclassing both Nigerian Eromosele Albert and Ghanian Osumanu Adama to take unanimous decision wins in both defenses.
So now to this fight. On paper the bout appears to be a lot like Geale's first foray to Germany (where he beat Sylvester) in that he will go in as the under-dog with many people suspecting that he will be beaten if it goes to the cards, as he faces an accurate puncher who whilst not particularly active is very accurate. Also, like his first foray into the country Geale's opponent comes into the bout on the back of a clear victory following a draw (Sylvester drew with Karmazin before widely out pointing Mahir Oral whilst Sturm draw with Martin Murray before stopping Sebastian Zbik). However we also have plenty of differences, this time Geale isn't the taller man (having had a 2.5" height advantage over Sylvester he is now the smaller man by 1.5") and he's also not having a new experience of having to travel to a foreign country for the first time in his career.
From what we've seen of Sturm in recent years, most notably the Macklin fight, Sturm can easily be outworked especially at close range and whilst he's not so easy to hurt attacking his body will slow him down noticeably. However if you allow him to get into a rhythm with his jab, as he did against Zbik you can be in for a long painful night at a distance he controls. Geale will need to find a way to stay away from the jab whilst getting inside and working the body of the German, if he can do this then he'll have a lot of success.
From Sturm's point of view he'll be wanting to watch Geale's fight with Sylvester as well as his own bout with Macklin as they were surprisingly similar in that the challenger attacked, relentlessly through out the bout. Whilst Macklin hits harder than Geale it's fair to say the Aussie is slightly cleverer with his work and takes careful breathers outside of range. Whilst Sturm could look to strike when Geale is at range he may have better success striking as Geale comes in and out of range. Sylvester had his best successes when he nailed Geale up close with shots as Geale was letting his hands go and with Sturm being a much better boxer than Sylvester it's fair to say he could have similar successes.
Whilst I think Sturm could certainly hurt Geale, especially late when Geale will be tired from his high out put, I do, just, favour Sturm by decision. The fact Sturm is fighting at home in Germany is the deciding factor for me. Whilst Geale could certainly outwork Sturm, if he can avoid Sturm's jab and build on Macklin's game plan I just don't see him getting the decision even if he deserves it. Despite clearly defeating Sylvester last year one judge somehow saw the bout 118-110 to Sylvester.
Prediction-Sturm by decision.
Firstly we'll look at Sturm who at 33 years old is the older fighter though is far from a shot fighter going on the evidence of his last bout, a TKO9 over Sebastian Zbik. Sturm started his professional career back in 2001 and with in 3 years he had claimed the WBO Middleweight title thanks to a controversial victory over Argentinian Hector Javier Velazco. Sturn had been a very late replacement for former champion Bert Schenk (who was forced to pull out due to illness) taking the fight with just a couple of days notice though was impressive on in his first major professional bout.
After scoring a clear points victory over Ruben Varon in his only defense, Sturm lost his title, controversially, to American superstar Oscar De La Hoya just 9 months after winning it. Despite this loss Sturm had proven he could hang with top level fighters and he took little time climbing his way back to the top of the rankings, this time viewing the WBA title as the one he wanted. A little over a year after losing to De La Hoya, Sturm had claimed the mandatory position for the WBA Middleweight title.
With William Joppy (the WBA "regular" champion) losing against Bernard Hopkins (the WBA "Super" champion) the WBA vacated their regular title which was later won by Maselino Masoe who surprisingly stopped Evans Ashira (who would later go on to take Joe Calzaghe the distance). Masoe's reign was very short lived with Sturm defeating him in his only defence to become a 2-time world champion.
Sturm would surprisingly lose in his first defense of his WBA title as he was stopped in round 10 against Spanish veteran Javier Castillejo, a former WBC Light Middleweight champion. In a rematch just 9 months later Sturm would avenge his defeat and reclaim the WBA title by out pointing Castillejo in a hugely disputed bout that Spaniard's team were very unhappy about.
Since reclaiming the title from Castillejo back in April 2007 Sturm has amassed an incredible 12 title defenses (including 10 wins and draws). Included in those defences were Noe Gonzalez Alcoba (UD12), Randy Griffin (D12 and UD12), Jamie Pittman (TKO7), Sebastian Sylvester (UD12), Koji Sato (TKO7), Khoren Gevor (UD12), Giovanni Lorenzo (UD12), Ronald Hearns (TKO7), Matthew Macklin (SD12-in a hugely controversial bout), Martin Murray (D12) and Sebastian Zbik (TKO7), with the title being upgraded to the "Super" title after the victory over Gevor.
As well as being a long reigning champion of over 5 years Sturm is best known in the ring for his hard, accurate and razor sharp jab, a punch that he often dominates opponents with. Whilst not being a hugely powerful fighter Sturm's jab is hurtful and can bust up fighters with it's alarming cleanness. Outside of the jab however Sturm is very average with solid but unspectacular uppercuts and appears to like to work at his own pace preferring quality of work rather than quantity.
Unlike Sturm, Australian Geale, aged 31, is a relatively new champion having claimed the IBF title just last year as he out pointed former Sturm opponent Sebastian Sylvester by split decision to end Sylvester's controversial 18 month reign. This was a solid rise to the top for Geale who only started his own professional career in 2004.
Geale, who debuted in October 2004 started his career with 21 straight wins, including impressive victories over fellow Australian Daniel Dawson and the teak tough Serbian Geard Ajetovic, suffered his first (and only) professional loss in 2009 against Anthony Mundine. Mudine, a former 2-time world champion at Super Middleweight, controversially out pointed Geale by split decision in one of the most controversial bouts in Australian boxing in modern times.
Since controversially losing to Mundine in 2009 Geale has been on an excellent run of results with 6 straight victories including 3 in world title bouts. Before claiming the IBF world title Geale had to earn his mandatory position, to do this he would have to get past the experienced Russian Roman Karmazin. Karmazin, a former IBF Light Middleweight champion had taken the then reigning IBF Middleweight champion Sebastian Sylvester to a controversial draw (with many feeling Karmazin was robbed). Geale was hugely impressive in not only beating Karmazin but becoming just the second man to stop the Russian in 47 bouts.
Having earned his shot at the title Geale traveled to Germany to face Sylvester as the slight under-dog despite many expecting Geale to need to score a KO to win. Geale set off at a lightning quick pace completely outworking the then champion to take a narrow split decision. Whilst Sylvester's shots seemed to be the much harder, cleaner blows he was just simply out worked in too many rounds to deny the Australian.
Since winning the title Geale has made two defences out pointing the thoroughly outclassing both Nigerian Eromosele Albert and Ghanian Osumanu Adama to take unanimous decision wins in both defenses.
So now to this fight. On paper the bout appears to be a lot like Geale's first foray to Germany (where he beat Sylvester) in that he will go in as the under-dog with many people suspecting that he will be beaten if it goes to the cards, as he faces an accurate puncher who whilst not particularly active is very accurate. Also, like his first foray into the country Geale's opponent comes into the bout on the back of a clear victory following a draw (Sylvester drew with Karmazin before widely out pointing Mahir Oral whilst Sturm draw with Martin Murray before stopping Sebastian Zbik). However we also have plenty of differences, this time Geale isn't the taller man (having had a 2.5" height advantage over Sylvester he is now the smaller man by 1.5") and he's also not having a new experience of having to travel to a foreign country for the first time in his career.
From what we've seen of Sturm in recent years, most notably the Macklin fight, Sturm can easily be outworked especially at close range and whilst he's not so easy to hurt attacking his body will slow him down noticeably. However if you allow him to get into a rhythm with his jab, as he did against Zbik you can be in for a long painful night at a distance he controls. Geale will need to find a way to stay away from the jab whilst getting inside and working the body of the German, if he can do this then he'll have a lot of success.
From Sturm's point of view he'll be wanting to watch Geale's fight with Sylvester as well as his own bout with Macklin as they were surprisingly similar in that the challenger attacked, relentlessly through out the bout. Whilst Macklin hits harder than Geale it's fair to say the Aussie is slightly cleverer with his work and takes careful breathers outside of range. Whilst Sturm could look to strike when Geale is at range he may have better success striking as Geale comes in and out of range. Sylvester had his best successes when he nailed Geale up close with shots as Geale was letting his hands go and with Sturm being a much better boxer than Sylvester it's fair to say he could have similar successes.
Whilst I think Sturm could certainly hurt Geale, especially late when Geale will be tired from his high out put, I do, just, favour Sturm by decision. The fact Sturm is fighting at home in Germany is the deciding factor for me. Whilst Geale could certainly outwork Sturm, if he can avoid Sturm's jab and build on Macklin's game plan I just don't see him getting the decision even if he deserves it. Despite clearly defeating Sylvester last year one judge somehow saw the bout 118-110 to Sylvester.
Prediction-Sturm by decision.
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