Earlier this year veteran hard hitter Randall Bailey (47-7-0-1, 37) scored one of the upsets' of the year by stopping the highly favoured Mike Jones in a bout for the IBF Welterweight crown. This weekend see's Bailey making the first defense of his title as he faces former Welterweight title holder Devon Alexander (23-1, 13), can Bailey really upset the odds twice in a row?
They often say that the last thing a fighter loses is his punch and that seems to be the case for Bailey. The defending champion who at 37 (he turns 38 soon after the bout) is certainly an out and puncher, known by many simply as "The Knock-Out King" the Florida native really has got lights out power in his right hand, commonly referred to simply as "the stick of dynamite" and it's this power that has seen him become a multi-time world champion.
Bailey first turned professional in 1996, an amazing 16 years ago and started his career with a sensational run of 21 straight victories by T/KO. Amongst those victories was a notable one in May 1999 over the then WBO Light Welterweight champion Carlos Gonzalez who was stopped in just 41 seconds as Bailey claimed his first world title. After winning the title in his 19th bout Bailey made 2 defenses stopping both Hector Lopez and Rocky Martinez before losing it by split decision to Ener Julio.
After suffering his first loss Bailey bounced quickly and scored 4 more wins, each of those by T/KO in the first 3 rounds as he claimed the interim WBA World Light Welterweight title. Sadly for Bailey his reign with the WBA was short lived as he was defeated in his next fight as he fought for the full version of the belt against Cuban Diosbelys Hurtado, with Hurtado stopping Bailey in round 7. Following this loss Bailey's career struggled to get re-started as he lost 3 of his next 6 fights including WBO Light Welterweight title bouts to DeMarcus Corley (LUD12) and Miguel Cotto (LTKO6).
Those losses had seen Bailey's record falling to 28-5 (27) and it appeared that Bailey's time at the top was all but done, he was now 30 years old and a certified member of the "Who need him?" Club. Despite this Bailey fought on and ran up 7 straight wins after the Cotto loss to move him back up the rankings. Sadly Bailey's winning run came to an end in early 2007 as Canadian based Cameroonian Herman Ngoudjo won a competitive split decision over Bailey in an IBF Light Welterweight title eliminator.
Following the loss to Ngoudjo it would take 22 months for Bailey to work his way back to an eliminator. This time he took the chance with both hands and stopped Francisco Figueroa in eye catching fashion. Bailey however couldn't over come the then champion Juan Urango and was stopped in the 11th round after running out of gas in an enthralling war that saw both men down and hurt. By now nearing his 35 birthday many expected this bout to be the final chapter in the career of Bailey but instead it just seemed to spur him on and after 4 fights (winning 3 with the other being a bizarre no contest as Said Ouali was literally thrown out of the ring) he was back in line for one more chance at a world title. To claim the vacant IBF Welterweight title however Bailey would have to defeat the highly touted and then unbeaten Mike Jones (who was 26-0, 19). Jones got off to an early lead and it seemed almost certain that Bailey would come up short once again. Things started to change however in round 10 when Bailey dropped Jones and started his fightback. Bailey then did the unthinkable and knocked out Jones the following round with a peach of an uppercut to claim the IBF Welterweight title.
Whilst not the most skilled in the world, or the fastest or the fighter with the best stamina Bailey is a true knock-out artist, if he lands clean on anyone they may not know where they are. Many of his knockouts have left opponents either completely out cold or rolling on the canvas as if they have had a few drinks too many. His power is genuinely scary and something every opponent he faces has to be aware of. If he catches Alexander (or anyone else for that matter) it could well be good night Vienna.
Alexander, as the challenger will be seriously fancying his chances over someone who is 12 years his senior however he is relatively unproven at Welterweight having been a Light Welterweight for much of his career, and certainly for his most notable bouts so far.
The young fighter first made his name in the amateurs where he ran up an amazing record reported to be 300-10 with a huge number of title. Having missed out on the 2004 Olympic games Alexander decided to turn professional, aged just 17. He was seen as a prodigious talent and swiftly moved up the rankings. In 2006, in just his 9th bout he claimed his first title, the WBC Youth World Welterweight title before moving down to Light Welter the following year.
It was as a Light Welterweight that Alexander defined his career (at least to the point of writing) as he continued to improve and beat progressively better opponents. In 2008 he scored his first notable victory as he beat former champion DeMarcus Corley before defeating former title contender Miguel Callist, by the middle of the year it seemed only a matter of waiting to get his shot at a title. The following year the waiting paid off as he got a shot at the vacant WBC Light Welterweight title though he would have to get past former title holder Junior Witter to claim the belt. Despite being just 22 years old Alexander managed to defeat the British veteran who quit in his corner citing a hand injury between rounds 8 and 9.
Having claimed one world title Alexander wanted another and in his first defense he fought the then reigning IBF champion Juan Urango in a unification bout. Alexander managed to not only retain his belt but also add the IBF title to his collection by unexpectedly stopping the teak tough Colombian in the 8th round of a very impressive performance. From there however things started to go wrong for Alexander who was fortunate to defeat the very under-rated Ukrainian Andriy Kotelnyk. Against Kotelnyk Alexander worked hard, throwing over 1000 punches but his jab was next to useless landing at around 10% according to Compubox. In his very next fight Alexander suffered his first loss as a professional losing a 10 round Technical Decision to fellow unbeaten American Timothy Bradley losing his WBC title in the bout and being stripped of his IBF title for failing to fight the mandatory contender (Kaizer Mabuza).
Since suffering the first loss of his career Alexander has won twice. The first of those victories saw Alexander controversially defeating Lucas Martin Matthysse in a bout that most (including myself) felt he comfortably lost) whilst the second saw Alexander put on an excellent performance against Marcos Rene Maidana in a very one sided victory.
Whilst Alexander does have power of his own, as shown in his stoppage of Juan Urango he is at his best boxing ability and speed to stay out of range whilst landing his shots. He can be incredibly busy however a lot of his attacks can be ineffective as his jab isn't the weapon that it should be given his speed and movement. Fighting out of the Southpaw stance he will have to be even more wary than most of Bailey's right hand which will be the punch he needs to look out for.
Despite being the challenger Devon Alexander is seen as a big favourite priced at around 1/5 this is due in part to his youth (as I've mentioned he's significantly younger than the champion) and also due to his career so far which has seen him never (so far). However two things need to be noted by anyone betting on Alexander. Firstly the decision isn't in his back pocket, this fight isn't in Missouri where Alexander has had favourable judging in the past instead it's in Las Vegas. Secondly Alexander has been hurt and was dropped by Matthysse and, without trying to demean the hard hitting Argentinian Bailey hit's harder. That's not to say that Alexander can't win or won't win, but just that those odds are incredibly short for a fighter who is facing a lights out puncher.
For Alexander to win he has to use what he's been given, speed. He needs to get in an out with pot shots, land and move or hit and hold. Just neutralise the right hand of Bailey any way possible, circle away, hold, run anything. If he can bag the rounds with out getting tagged Alexander should win. For Bailey to win however he needs to land the pay day punch, something he's made his career out of. Bailey will be looking for the straight right hand, he'll probably flick out a few weak jabs to distract the challenger before trying to lower the boom with the right. If Bailey can start fast and tag Alexander in the first round things could be very interesting, though the champion does have poor stamina and may intentionally start very slowly like he did against Jones hoping to catch a tiring Alexander.
Despite being the under-dog I need to go with Bailey who is amazingly priced as high as 5/1 at the moment however the smart money is on Bailey by T/KO at around 13/2. Those odds are just unreal on what is a much, much closer fight than the bookies seem to be thinking.
Prediction-Bailey TKO8
Note-This preview was originally written for when the bout was first stated to take place. The Preview has not been edited since then.
No comments:
Post a Comment