Friday, 8 November 2013

Hekkie Budler v Hugo Hernan Verchelli

The lower divisions seem to be always evolving in one way or another. Whether it's fighters moving up to prove themselves, fighters moving up because they can't make weight or fighters skipping division to find themselves a meaningful challenger.

One such drastic change has seen the WBA Minimumweight title passed from Kazuto Ioka to Ryo Miyazaki in the last 12 months. That title now seems likely to be made vacant in the coming weeks with Miyazaki likely to vacate the belt before new year. The WBA have thought one step ahead of Miyazaki and have ordered an interim title fight, actually fulfilling one of the few reason's that interim titles exist.

For this interim belt South African Hekkie Budler (23-1, 6) will fight little known Argentinian Hugo Hernan Verchelli (11-1, 6). I'll admit that plenty of fans will know something about Budler but even the hardcore of the hardcore will be hard pushed to say much about Verchelli a very obscure challenger in the most obscure of weight divisions.

The 25 year old Budler is a fighter who has been on the fringes of world level for several years. Although he regularly been over-shadowed by several of his countrymen is now appears that this is his time to shine and in fact his win last time over Nkosinathi Joyi seemed to be the sign that South Africa now has a new force in the 105lb division.

Although far from a big puncher Budler is an incredibly talented fighter. He has solid skills, good movement, fantastic hand speed and a genuine desire to win. He's not going to knock people but he will refuse to lose.

With victories already notched over Joyi, Juanito Rubillar, Florante Condes and Michael Landero it seems fair to say that Budler has genuinely earned a world title fight. On the other hand Verchelli really hasn't earned the opportunity to fight for a world title.

Like Joyi, Verchelli is a 25 year old. Though unlike the South African it's hard to find a recognisable name on Verchelli's record. The most notable opponent that Verchelli has faced is arguably Adrian Eduardo Mendoza, the then reigning South American and Argentinian Light Flyweight champion, who lasted just 3 rounds with Verchelli last year.

Whilst both men have the same amount of stoppages it's fair to say that Verchelli is the bigger puncher. His 6 stoppages have come in just 12 bouts whilst Budler has taken 24 bouts for stoppages. Sure there is more to it than that but I'm happy to say that Verchelli is bigger single punch puncher, after all Argentinians do seem to have this knock of having some serious power in their hands. The power of Verchelli has seen him stopping his last 5 straight  and he will go in to this bout with real belief in his punching power.

Despite the belief in Verchelli's power I feel that Budler's skills, speed and the fact the fight is in South Africa will see Budler taking a victory here. It's rare for Budler to score stoppages but this could be one of those rare ones, especially when you consider that Verchelli has never been beyond 6 rounds.

Prediction-Budler TKO10

Friday, 1 November 2013

Gennady Golovkin v Curtis Stevens

Just a week after Peter Quillin defended his WBO Middleweight title against Gabriel Rosado we again see title action in the 160lb division. This week however we have a fight that has "shoot out" written all over it as the hard hitting Gennady Golovkin (27-0, 24), the WBA champion, takes on challenger Curtis Stevens (25-3, 18).

I'll admit, I expected the Quillin/Rosado fight to be somewhat fun to watch. Rosado always gives his all and Quillin is a big time puncher. That fight however lacked sustained action and a fitting ending. In fact that fight was hugely anti-climatic with only a few moments of any real excitement.

Thankfully this weeks is almost certainly going to be all about the excitement.

Golovkin, the defending champion, is a smart, calculating fighter. He doesn't make many mistakes as he measures his opponents with perfect judgement of distance, applies constant stalking pressure with tremendously deliberate footwork and then unleashes with dynamite power to the head or body. He really does look like the complete fighter with power, skills, timing, control and toughness. He doesn't have the greatest work-rate but he doesn't need to as he breaks down his opponents with clean effective shots.

Whilst Golovkin is measured and deliberate it's fair to say that Stevens doesn't share those traits. The American challenger is a hard hitter with out doubt with explosive power, though he's also a more reckless and wild fighter. He's a man who starts fast with the intention of getting in and getting out in as little time as possible. This has left him with a some highlight reel KO's and a growing fan base though also many questioning his credentials. Has Stevens got the bout due to his style and fan friendly nature, or has he earned it?

The Way Golovkin has been mowing his way through B/C grade opponents, such as Grzegorz Proksa, Nobuhiro Ishida and Matthew Macklin has been nothing short of impressive. Sure they aren't the "A list" of challengers but they are all capable fighters. Stevens, like the three men I've just mentioned, is a capable fighter, nothing great but very much a capable fighter. Unfortunately it's going to take a lot more than just a capable fighter to test Golovkin.

I imagine Stevens will come out cautious. It'd be stupid to take a risk early. Though I think by the end of the first round he will look like a beaten man and be stopped soon afterwards, maybe managing to see the start of round 4 if he's lucky.

Prediction-Golovkin TKO2

Friday, 25 October 2013

Peter Quillin v Gabriel Rosado

The Middleweight division is one of boxing's weirdest ones. It has a lot of good fighters in it, a lot of fantastic possibilities and a lot of potential excitement. Unfortunately for all the good things about it we also have politics really preventing the match ups fans want and instead we've been getting second tier fighters dressed up as world title contenders.

Unfortunately we get one of those again this weekend as WBO world champion Peter Quillin (29-0, 21) takes on the always game but limited Gabriel Rosado (21-6, 13), a man who's limitations at world level have been shown more than once.

Rosado is a decent fighter. Key word "decent", he's a proverbial gate keeper and will defeat some contenders but with losses to Fernando Guerrero, Alfredo Angulo, Derek Ennis and Gennady Golovkin in the last 4 and a bit years he does seem to be getting more than his share of chances. Of course the fact Rosado isn't linked to either of the two big promoters and is easy to deal with does work in his favour though when you figure his best wins are over Kassim Ouma, Jesus Soto Karass and Sechew Powell you do struggle to think of him as a world level fighter.

Despite his limitations Rosado is tough, brings excitement with his pressure, and refuses to back down from a fight. He's the sort of guy who will make fans almost every time he gets in the ring, win or lose. As Golovkin described him, rather affectionately, he's a "good boy", a nice hard working fighter who is genuinely hard to root against, despite his lack of world level qualifications.

The hard hitting Quillin, who claimed his world title by defeating Hassan N'Dam N'Jikam, will be making the second defense of his title. His first came in a very easy victory over Fernando Guerrero, a man who in all honesty had done nothing to deserve a world title fight. The class and power difference between the Quillin and Guerrero was obvious from the opening bell and Quillin just cruised past his challenger.

Quillin, whilst not the most technically gifted is skilled, determined, heavy handed and he sort of fighter who hurts you every time he lands. Sometimes he can be made to look lazy if a fighter uses their feet against him but in the end he knows that his pressure will pay off and he'll get to land his shots. Oddly in that respect he's a bit like Arthur Abraham, though a lot more athletically gifted and a lot less rigid in what he does.

With Guerrero having beaten Rosado but been squashed by Quillin I think this shows the level the two men are on. Quillin losing would be a major upset. Despite that there is something interesting about this bout. Can Quillin stop Rosado quicker than Golovkin? That's pretty much it.

With fans wanting Quillin v Golovkin this bout may add pressure to that happening. Unfortunately politics between HBO and Showtime will stand in the way, at least for now, though it's a bout that could well linger if both men are happy to face fringe contenders the next few years and pick up relatively easy victories waiting for the networks and promoters to actually put their differences behind them for the sake of the sport.

Prediction-Quillin TKO6 (beating Golovkin by a round)

Bernard Hopkins v Karo Murat

Over the last 12 months or so the Light Heavyweight division appears to have suddenly come alive with hard hitting fighters who have a serious aura of devastation about them. The most notable of those fighters are current world champions Adonis Stevenson (WBC) and Sergey Kovalev (WBO) , though Russian prospect Artur Beterbiev also seems to posses the same dynamite in his punchers.

Amazingly, despite the rise of those big punching champions, one man keeps proving that old school skills can be just as effective in defeating and even ruining opponents. That man is "The Executioner", sorry I mean "The Alien", Bernard Hopkins (53-6-2-2, 32) the current IBF champion who defends his belt for the first time this weekend.

The 48 year old Hopkins, who has seemingly given himself a new nickname in the lead up to this fight, will be facing the Iraq born German-Armenian Karo Murat (25-1-1, 15) a highly regarded European challenger who the IBF have have demanded is a mandatory challenger to Hopkins's title.

As the oldest ever world champion Hopkins is a man of history. In fact Hopkins is arguably a man with more historic significance than any other active fighter. He's set records, broken records, reset records and been the only man to unify all 4 major world titles. As they say however father time beats everyone and with his 49th birthday fast approaching it really does seem like Hopkins is living on borrowed time, however he's making the most of it and has shown an uncanny ability to beat younger men by just using exceptional skills and some nifty old school tricks.

Sure watching Hopkins at work isn't the most exciting thing in the world. He'll never be a Ruslan Provodnikov type fan favourite however he'll often find a way to control a fight, it's pace, range and his opponent. In fact in his most recent bout he made the usually busy Tavoris Cloud look like an old man, limiting his work and making him look much like a B rate fighter.

In Karo Murat we again see Hopkins facing a younger and supposedly fresher fighter who will be making his world title debut. Whilst this is Murat's first world title fight, it's not the first time he has been in with a supposedly "world level" fighter. In fact Murat's record is actually pretty impressive with victories over Gabriel Campillo, Cristian Sanavia and recent world title challenger Tommy Karpency. He has also fought to a draw with Campillo and suffered his sole career loss to Nathan Cleverly.

Whilst Hopkins is an expert in controlling the tempo of the fight Murat himself is a fighter who will take advantage of the fact Hopkins is aging. He has a solid work rate which whilst not extreme does tend to get stronger as the fight goes on, he'll often lose a number of the early rounds as his engine begins to get going but by the middle and late rounds he'll be coming forward trying to grind his opponents down. It's not often pretty but it's usually effective and usually pretty in your face.

If Murat can instill his will on Hopkins this could be an extremely competitive contest and give us the momentum swings that make a great fight. If, however, Hopkins can reach in to his bag of tricks once again he should be able to make Murat look slow, clumsy and a second rate challenger, even though he's a genuinely solid challenger.

My money will be on Hopkins doing it again, though I can understand why others may feel that father time will finally catch up with the greying "Alien".

Prediction-Hopkins UD12

Wednesday, 23 October 2013

John Riel Casimero v Felipe Salguero

Filipino Light Flyweight John Riel Casimero (18-2, 10) looks to make the third defense of his IBF title this weekend in one of a number of "forgotten" bouts, though one that looks like it has the potential to be the fight of the weekend.

Although relatively ignored by the boxing public Casimero is one of the true "road warriors" of boxing. He has been fighting throughout Latin America in recent contests and sadly this has prevented many Filipino fans from actually following one of their few active world champions, despite impressive victories in Panama, Argentina, Mexico and Nicaragua over his past few fights.

This time it's a Latin American traveling to fight Casimero as highly ranked Mexican fighter Felipe Salguero (18-4-1, 13) returns to the Philippines for his second world title fight, following a close 2012 loss to Donnie Neites in a WBO title title contest.

Although Salguero was taking a huge step up when he faced Neites last he gave a stirring performance using controlled aggression, heavy hands and a solid work rate to push the talented Neites very close. It was supposed to be an easy defense for Neites but Salguero proved to be a genuine challenge who adapted well to fighting on foreign soil for the first time.

Unfortunately following his loss to Neites, Salguero was stopped by Luis Alberto Rios a man who was subsequently outboxed by Casimero. Prior to being stopped by Rios however he had dropped the Panamanian and so obviously does have the power to hurt good fighters. Saying that however Casimero is tough and only Moruti Mthalane, the IBF Flyweight champion, has stopped him so far.

The match up here is one that sees a solid, world ranked pressure fighter up against a skilled boxer. Usually these match ups depend a lot on on the levels of the two men, not just of their fighting ability but also their ability to adapt to what the other man does. Here I think Casimero is the more versatile, he can box, he can fight and whilst he's not elite at any particular thing he's also not got a lot of clear weaknesses. Salguero on the other hand is slightly crude and can be out boxed.

This will be tough, competitive and possibly a very good fight, however I feel that Casimero will manage to take the decision, albeit a close one.

Prediction-Casimero UD12 (close)

Miguel Vazquez v Ammeth Diaz II

It's not often that a fight ends with scores of 120-107 (twice) and 119-108 and less than 2 years later we get a rematch, unfortunately that's exactly what we're getting this weekend when IBF Lightweight champion Miguel Vazquez (33-3, 13) defends his title against Ammeth Diaz (32-11-0-1, 23) for the second time.

It was back in January 2012 that the men first met with Vazquez dominating every single round of the fight as he recorded the third defense of his title and scored a rare knockdown of his own in the process. It was, in all honesty, a bout that never required a rematch, it was so one-sided that even talking about a rematch seemed a bit pointless. In the world of boxing however we do get some pointless match ups.

Before everyone jumps on to Vazquez's case over the bout, this is sadly a mandatory defense for the Mexican champion. Unfortunately Diaz "earned" this fight thanks to a victory over Britain's Martin Gethin, I'm not sure how Gethin v Diaz could ever have been a final eliminator, especially considering that Diaz's loss to Vazquez was just two fights earlier, but the boxing world is a mysterious one at the best of times.

Due to the total white wash of their first bout it's hard to see anything but the same again here. Vazquez may not be a pound-for-pound top fighter but he is someone who is truly frustrating to fight. He has a style that can only be described as a nightmare and whilst he's not exciting he is one of the premier proponents of the "hit and don't get hit" mentality that has helped Floyd Mayweather Jr stay at the top of the sport.

When you put Vazquez in the ring with someone who loads up and looks for big shots he honestly makes them look foolish. He lands his jab, moves and the lands another jab all whilst an opponent is trying to set themselves. The Vazquez style of hit and move disturbs fighters rhythms and when he fights some one like Diaz there is only one out come, barring a freak 1-punch KO.

Put Diaz in with someone like Raymundo Beltran and you get a fun to watch fire fight. Put him in with a technically skilled boxer like Vazquez and you end up with a masterclass.

Prediction-Vazquez UD12 (Very clear)

Bryan Vasquez v Rene Gonzalez

In one of this weekend's "over looked" world title fights Costa Rican Bryan Vasquez (31-1, 17) looks to reclaim the WBA "interim" Super Featherweight title that he held until losing to WBA "regular" champion Takashi Uchiyama.

Whilst on paper the idea of a fighter wanting an interim title might sound odd, Vasquez actually made for a decent interim champion. If of course we view interim championship status as a sign that a tighter is a solid contender.

Vasquez will be fighting the little known Nicaraguan Rene Gonzalez (31-5-1-1, 23), a man who boasts several notable losses but little in terms of noteworthy victories. In fact in his only notable bouts Vasquez has been beaten by Urbano Antillon, Humberto Mauro Gutierrez, Dante Jordan and Daniel Estrada. Effectively pushing him to the very extreme fringes of "title contender".

Vasquez, despite losing to Uchiyama, impressed me when he faced by far the best Super Featherweight on the planet. Uchiyama is a scary guy in the ring, defensively sound with dynamite in both hands. Vasquez however wasn't intimidated and went after him using his speed and skill, before finally being undone by Uchiyama's power.

It's fair to say that on the back of his showing with the Japanese fighter, Vasquez probably deserves a top 20 ranking at absolute worst. In fact his key limitation is the fact he's not a puncher. He's fast, smooth, has lovely combinations, good foot work but can't keep a phenom like Uchiyama away with his light shots.

Against Gonzalez however Vasquezs's combinations and movement may serve him well as he fires out an eye catching flurry and gets away whilst the crowd roar him on.

Although Gonzalez's record looks like he has a decent punch on him with 23 stoppages from 31 wins one needs to delve a bit deeper. Of those stoppages 10 came in his first 10 bouts whilst only 3 have come in his last 10. Basically his power hasn't carried up as he's faced tougher opponents. He of course still carries some sting on his punches but it'd not as concussive as one may think.

What's perhaps more telling about Gonzalez is the fact he's tough. In his 38 fight career he has been stopped just the once, an 11th round retirement to the dangerous Daniel Estrada back in 2011. He has however been down several times, notably being dropped 3 times by Israel Hector Enrique Perez in his second most recent contest at 130lbs.

It's harder to find footage of Gonzalez than it is of Vasquez though what footage I did find didn't make him look that great. In fact he looked quite slow and not that tight skills wise. There is a decent fighter there, but decent is about the nicest I can be.

I'll admit it, I like Vasquez and may be biased here, though I'd be shocked if the Costa Rican doesn't take a clear decision against Gonzalez who will give his all but not have enough to catch up with one of the sports many hidden fighters.

Prediction-Vasquez UD12