Wednesday, 3 April 2013

Brian Viloria v Juan Francisco Estrada

In what is for me the fight of the weekend WBA "super" and WBO Flyweight champion Brian Viloria (32-3-0-2,19) defends his titles against teak tough Mexican Juan Francisco Estrada (22-2, 18). This fight might be seen as a mismatch by many though it's a fight I think all will agree will be fun as long as it lasts with a lot of action and some fantastic exchanges.

Viloria may not be seen by Ring Magazine as the best Flyweight on the planet though generally fans and the wider boxing media seem to have acknowledged his achievements and placed him on an official #1 place at 112lbs. He has proven his ability time and time again and in recent years has been on one of the best runs in the sport with victories against a genuine who's who.

Since turning professional in 2001 the 32 year old Viloria has had a genuine up and down career that now seems to be up (and staying up). He has claimed the WBC and IBF Light Flyweight titles as well as his current WBO and WBA "super" titles at Flyweight but he has also suffered defeats at the hands of Omar Nino Romero, Edgar Sosa and Carlos Tamara.

At his best Viloria is a boxer-puncher who can do both excellently. He can out box most and he can out punch most though he's had issues with his identity in the ring and has often tried fighting as a puncher and as a boxer which has often been when he has struggled. When he's stuck to one style of fighting however Viloria has proven to be excellent with power, skills, movement and a real toughness to him. It's these attributes that have have seen him defeating the likes Alberto Rossel, Gilberto Keb Baas, Eric Ortiz, Jose Antonio Aguirre, Ulises Solis, Julio Cesar Miranda, Giovani Segura, Omar Nino Romero and Hernan Marquez.

At the top level Viloria's ability is well known though his opponent, the 22 year old Estrada, is much less well known despite being in a Fight of the Year contender in 2012 against Roman Gonzalez. Estrada proved against Gonzalez that he can take a punch (my God did he prove that) and had the fighters heart to come back with his own shots in a some what typical Mexican warrior fashion. Not only did he take the best of Gonzalez (who I rate highly) but he also ran Gonzalez very close in a thoroughly engaging and competitive bout.

As well as his loss to Gonzalez, Estrada has also been beaten by Juan Carlos Sanchez Jr, also by decision. Although Estrada and Gonzalez fought at 108lbs Estrada is going up to Flyweight for this bout, the same weight that he fought Sanchez Jr at and we wonder if he'll actually be the smaller man in the ring with Viloria who himself made his name at Light Flyweight. In fact I wouldn't be shocked if Estrada looked the bigger man having fought as high as 118lbs before.

In the ring Estrada is a tough and hard working fighter who can be out boxed by a clever fighter but he doesn't seem to ever get discouraged and his recuperative abilities are amazing. You can rock him, you can hurt him but you can't make him fold, and you'll have to make sure he doesn't get to unload too many on you in return because he has genuinely hurtful power of his own.Admittedly however, Estrada's best wins are against C level fighters like Ardin Diale though he certainly has proved himself in both of his losses, both to current world champions.

It's easy to say that "Viloria will destroy Estrada" but for me this bout isn't that simple and in fact I see Viloria being pushed hard by Estrada who may manage to make this in to a bit of a battle of attrition. If Estrada can take Viloria's power (and that is admittedly a huge if) he could well score an upset late against a tiring Viloria, though if Viloria, who is a very clean puncher, can land his shots and have an effect on Estrada early it may be a case of the referee saving a very brave Mexican challenger.

With the Viloria win being the "obvious one" I'll actually go against the tide and go with Estrada.

Prediction-Estrada TKO11 in a FOTY candidate.

Friday, 29 March 2013

Mario Rodriguez v Katsunari Takayama

After scoring arguably the biggest upset of last year Mexican Mario Rodriguez (15-6-4, 11) makes the first  defense of the IBF Minimumweight title he annexed from South African Nkosinathi Joyi as he faces former Joyi rival Katsunari Takayama (24-6-0-1, 10). This bout will be Takayama's first bout in Mexico and he remarkably enters 1-4-0-1 in the last 4 years!

Although Rodriguez's record is scratchy to say the best the 24 year old "Dragoncito" has been a fighter who has had to sink or swim from an early age. He debuted at 17 years old and started his career 10-6-4 with losses to Jose Alfredo Rodriguez and Donnie Nietes and a draw with Pedro Guevara amongst others. Not bad opponents for a young fighter.

In more recent bouts however Rodriguez has been defeating solid and accomplished professionals such as Manuel Jimenez, Karluis Diaz, Gilberto Keb Baas, Armando Vazquez and of course Joyi in a genuinely impressive streak. He hasn't just been beating his opponents he's been stopping them as well with only Jimenez surviving the distance from that impressive series of opponents.

Rodriguez isn't the most skilled but he's a very tough fighter who hasn't been stopped since losing his debut via 2nd round TKO to Geovanny Lopez (who Rodriguez beat in a rematch) and he relies on his toughness, his power and his work rate to over-come opponents. He's a fighter who if given a chance to have a tear up would likely come out on top.

Although Takayama is going through the worst run of his career (as mentioned above he's won just 1 of his last 6) the 29 year old is a proven force at the top level in the division. He's not only a former WBC and WBA interim champion but he's also a fighter who has faced a relative who's who including Isaac Bustos, Eagle Den Junlaphan. Carlos Melo, Yutaka Niida, Roman Gonzalez,     Tshepo Lefele and Joyi (twice). As well as fighting that high level of competition he has also been unfortunate in some of his losses, most notably a split decision loss to Mateo Handig last time out and the loss to Niida.

Takayama is, like Rodriguez, a tough fighter (as he showed repeatedly against Gonzalez) and he's also a fighter with a solid work rate though unfortunately he seems to lack power and can be dragged in to a war (as he was with Gonzalez). If Takayama goes to Mexico with a point to prove I think he'll lose a decision though sadly if he chooses to box he may be viewed as negative and may end up losing anyway, it really is a toughy for the Japanese veteran.

Rodriguez isn't as bad as his record indicated and for me this would be a pretty even fight on neutral territory though in Mexico it's hard to imagine Rodriguez losing.

Prediction-Rodriguez by UD in a thoroughly enjoyable bout.

Gennady Golovkin v Nobuhiro Ishida

Unbeaten Kazakh Gennady Golovkin (25-0, 22) will look for his second win this year as he puts his WBA and IBO Middleweight titles on the line against the upset minded Japanese fighter Nobuhiro Ishida (24-8-2, 9). On paper the bout looks like a complete mismatch though many said the same before Ishida shocked the then unbeaten James Kirkland a little over 2 years ago. Going in to that bout Kirkland, like Golovkin now, was season as a monster puncher who could destroy anyone if he landed cleanly.

The 37 year old Ishida goes in to this bout as the big under-dog, this is partly based on him and partly based on Golovkin, though he is a very under-rated fighter on his own merits. Ishida not only has over 12 years of professional experience under his belt with over 260 rounds but he also has experience fighting around the world. Sure he started his career in his native Japan but he has, in recent years, also fought in the USA, Mexico and Russia as he's become a bit of a road warrior.

Ishida's experience may be an advantage but his major advantage is in his size. At 6'1" and with a 72" reach some have described Ishida as "the Japanese Tommy Hearns", because like Hearns he's a bit of a physical freak in terms of height and reach (although he lacks Tommy's insane power). Although he lacks the thunderous power of Hearns he has managed to show speed, an impressive jab and maybe most notably he's shown heart.

In his 2 most recent losses (unanimous decisions to Paul Williams and Dmitry Pirog) Ishida was thoroughly beaten but in neither bout did he ever look like folding, in fact he looked like he could take the punishment pretty much none stop showing toughness and real guts, something he will need here.

At 30 years old Golovkin is a fighter who appears to have finally started getting some traction in his professional career after some seriously frustrating issues for both him and fans. In fact it's fair to say that Golovkin was, for several years part of the "who needs him club?" having proven himself to be a monster in the amateurs (where he beat a genuine who's who).

Since turning professional back in 2006 Golovkin has been a fighter that the hardcore fans have supported whilst almost begging for him to get bigger fights, something that has started to happen thanks to fan support and HBO in America (who have bankrolled his last 2 bouts). Whilst some may thank HBO for those fights it's more a case of HBO knowing that in Golovkin they have a very attractive product who is fun to watch, powerful, skilled and will pretty much fight anyone.

Sure Golovkin isn't impossible to catch (he does appear to be a very tough fighter though), but every shot he lands seems to have dynamite behind it. His jabs seem to look like straights, his hooks and uppercuts look like shot gun blasts and best of all he seems to do it whilst always perfectly balanced, a rare trait that shows some special skill that so few have.

Thanks to HBO Golovkin has been shown twice in the US destroying Grzegorz Proksa and more recently defeating Gabriel Rosado to continue a 12 fight stoppage run that he'll be hoping to extend to 13 fights here.

Whilst Ishida has notable size advantage (4" in height) oddly Golovkin has the longer reach and could neutralise the jab of Ishida. Despite this I imagine we'll see Golovkin starting as a pressure fighter taking the jabs of Ishida mostly on the guard whilst walking him down and stalking before unloading in the corner. Whilst Ishida is tough I do imagine that Golovkin's pressure and power will start to take the toll and Ishid will eventually fold after showing a remarkable amount of heart.

Prediction- Golovkin TKO8

Thursday, 28 March 2013

Brandon Rios v Mike Alvarado II

Last year boxing fans got a real treat when the Americans Brandon Rios (31-0-1, 23) and Mike Alvarado (33-1, 23) waged a thoroughly enjoyable war on each other in a none title bout. This coming weekend the two step in to the ring together again with the interim WBO Light Welterweight title on the line in what promises a lot considering their first fight.

Last time out Alvarado started very well before eventually being dragged more and more in to a war that eventually saw him getting stopped in the 7th round by a determined Rios who was forced to take hard shots himself. Although last time out the bout played chief support to Nonito Donaire's bout with Toshiaki Nishioka this time the bout is the main event and after their first meeting the reason si obvious-these two are fun to watch.

Of the two men Brandon Rios goes in to this bout as the notable favourite (3/10) and this is partly due to his victory last time out and also partly due to his reputation. Rios has, over the past 3 years, been on a real tear beating the likes of Jorge Luis Theron, Anthony Peterson, Miguel Acosta, Urbano Antillon, John Murray, Richar Abril (though this one was hugely controversial) and of course Alvarado. He has looked unstoppable with only Abril seeing the final bell (in a bout that Rios was very lucky to win) and has shown power, aggression, work rate and sheer toughness. In fact it's fair to say that Rios has shown nothing less than a sheer bloody mindedness to win come hell or high water.

The unbeaten Rios may not be the most skilled or the most technical in the ring but he's one of the toughest and has one of the biggest hearts. He doesn't seem to know when he's lost, he doesn't seem to know how to take a backwards step and probably most impressively, he knows how to cut the ring off and get his offensive work in (even if he does take a shot or two in return).

Like Rios, Alvarado has proven himself to be a genuine warrior. Sure he was stopped last time out against Rios though had already proven his balls in an enthralling war with Breidis Prescott (who fights on the undercard) which he won by stopping Prescott in the tenth despite being very marked up. Also like Rios, Alvarado isn't the smartest of boxers, though he is probably more technically sound than Rios he's also no Willie Pep.

Alvarado is a warrior through and through he's tough and this time around (more so than last time) he's got a point to prove. He started well against Rios last time and seemed to look the much better boxer, though was unfortunately dragged into a fight, hurt then stopped. If (and it's a big if) Alvarado can stick to his boxing and tag Rios whilst moving laterally (like he did in several rounds last time out) he could manage to find himself taking a decision. Sadly for Alvarado boxing against Rios can be harder than it seems and for those who saw Rios v Acosta they may know just how good Rios is at cutting off the corners (which admittedly Acosta seemed to like fighting out of).

Although Alvarado for me personally is over-priced (18/5) I do favour Rios on account of the fact we know he can hurt Alvarado. Although it's obvious that Rios' career at the top isn't going to be a long one (he simply takes too many shots for that) I don't think he'll suddenly get old here. Alvarado will stick to his boxer more this time, though I think eventually he gets either dropped (perhaps choosing to take a knee) an loses by close decision or stopped standing as Rios proves to be an offensive machine.

Prediction-Rios by TKO11

Friday, 22 March 2013

Arthur Abraham v Robert Stieglitz II

WBO Super Middleweight champion Arthur Abraham (36-3, 28) will look to defend his title for the first time as he meets the man he beat last year for the belt, Robert Stieglitz (43-3, 24) in a rematch of one of last years FOTY contenders.

Last time the two men met we saw Abraham claiming a hot fought decision over Stieglitz in a bout that saw Abraham's power and defense just do enough to out point the busier but less powerful Stieglitz, who was then the defending champion. Since then however both men have fought a single bout scoring stoppage victories over limited opposition.

The men proved last time out that although they aren't necessarily the most fun to watch men in the sport they could put on a fantastic bout with each other. I have a feeling that we will see the same sort of thing here as Stieglitz once again pushes the action with his offensive work rate and whilst it's not likely to be clean it will be relentless whilst Abraham looks for his big, eye catching counters.

Neither man has changed a great deal since their first bout. Abraham still looks like he's unsettled at Super Middleweight and he still lacks the dynamite he showed at Middleweight. Stieglitz is still an unspectacular fighter who works incredibly hard with his limited skill set.

It's hard, in a rematch, to go against the original winner and I feel this will be the case again here with Abraham again pushed hard but just having the thudding force to just claim the decision.

Prediction-Abraham by decision

Friday, 15 March 2013

Roberto Vasquez v John Mark Apolinario II

Panamanian Roberto Vasquez (32-5-1, 22) and Filipino John Mark Apolinaro (17-2-2, 4) meet for the second time in a little over 4 months after fighting to a draw in November 2012. Like in their first fight the men will be battling for the WBA "interim" Bantamweight title though unlike last time, they will be fighting in Vasquez's native Panama as opposed to the more neutral Argentina (where their first fight was).

Going in to their first bout I felt Vasquez would simply have too much experience and skill for the untested Apolinario who in all honesty had never fought at Vasquez's level before. In fact Apolinario's losses to Marvin Tampus and Jessie Albaracin were pretty damning results in my eyes, despite this however Apolinario put on the performance of his life and held Vasquez in a hard fought bout.

This time I think Vasquez will know what to expect from the young Filipino and, roared on by the Panamanian fans I think he'll raise his game. Whilst Apolinario fought his best fight last time I don't think Vazquez did and although Apolinaio is the naturally bigger man the experience edge and home advantage makes it hard not to favour Vasquez again this time around.

Thursday, 14 March 2013

John Riel Casimero v Luis Alberto Rios

The IBF Light Flyweight champion John Riel Casimero (17-2, 10) has had a very interesting career so far and despite only being 23 he has probably has more stories than many seasoned veterans. He's fought around the world, "caused" a riot by beating a controversial Argentinian and become a genuinely solid (though criminally under-rated) fighter. This weekend sees Casimero on the road again as he fights for the first time in Panama defending his title against the once beaten Luis Alberto Rios (18-1-1, 13).

Casimero debuted way back in 2007 as a fresh faced 17 year old and in a little over a year he had already claimed a notable title winning the Philippines Boxing Federation Flyweight title and upsetting the experienced Rodel Quilaton. That was just Casimero's 10th professional bout. Just months later Casimero would capture the WBO Asia Pacific Light Flyweight title title and prove himself to be one of the most exciting teenagers in the sport.

Aged just 19 Casimero left his native Philippines for the first time and traveled to Nicaragua to fight seasoned Colombian Cesar Canchila (who had been the first man to beat Giovanni Segura just 17 months earlier) in a bout for the interim WBO Light Flyweight title. Many had written off the relatively unknown Casimero who shocked many fan of the lower divisions by stopping Canchila in 11 rounds to take the title back home. Sadly Casimero's title reign was short lived as he would the belt in his next bout via split decision to Mexican Ramon Garcia Hirales.

Casimero's road journey continued in his next bout as he traveled to South Africa and faced the genuinely excellent Moruti Mthalane in an IBF Flyweight title bout. Mthalane was too big, too talented and too strong for the brave Casimero who was stopped in the fifth round.

After 3 fights away from home Casimero swiftly dispatched with Roemart Sentillas in the Philippines before arguably scoring his biggest win in Argentina where he stopped the very unlikable Luis Alberto Lazarte for the interim IBF Light Flyweight title. Sadly that bout is better remembered for the disgusting scenes that followed the bout rather than the victory for Casimero, who was later pelted with items as the crowd almost tried to kill him in one of the most horrific scenes seen in boxing in the past decade.

Since claiming the IBF Light Flyweight title Casimero has made a solitary defense of the belt, defeating Pedro Guevara in Mexico by split decision (in a bout that saw Guevara on the canvas numerous times with them often being ruled as "slips").

In terms of Casimero in the ring he's fearless, he's fast, accurate and a very under-rated fighter. I wouldn't put him in with Roman Gonzalez or Kazuto Ioka but against anyone else in the division he would at very least hold his own. He's only really been beaten once and that was by Mthalane who I'm a huge admirer off and in that bout everything was against Casimero, including weight and the crowd (and it showed as he was honesty swatted around by Mthalane). At Light Flyweight he's a genuine nightmare for anyone and he keeps his power late having stopped both Canchila (TKO11) and Lazarte (TKO10) late.

Going into this bout relatively little is known of Luis Alberto Rios. The 23 year old Panamanian challenger has, like Casimero, been a professional since 2007 and been in pretty much the same number of fights, though all of his have been at home in fact almost all of them have taken place in Panama City.

Despite fighting just in Panama Rios has faced several better known fighters. These have seen him scoring victories over Edwin Diaz, Walter Tello (who faces Alberto Rossel in Peru also this weekend), local journeyman Carlos Melo, former world title contender Luis Carrillo and most recently Felipe Salguero, also a world title contender. What is notable from those fights is that Rios has a solid punch on him having taken out Salguero (TKO11), Carillo (TKO5), Tello (TKO4).

It's not all good news for Rios though. He has been stopped himself (against  Luis Carrillo) and was held to a draw with Carlos Melo in a rematch. He was dropped last time out against Salguero and if I'm being honest Salguero is no Casimero and this is what swings me in to feeling that Casimero should be able to hurt and stop Rios.

Prediction-Casimero TKO9